Anthropic's recent releases, particularly Claude Opus 4.8 in late May, have driven its overwhelming 85.5% implied probability for second-best model status by end of June, as multiple Claude variants like Opus 4.8 and Fable 5 currently top or cluster near the top of composite leaderboards including SWE-bench, GPQA Diamond, and intelligence indices ahead of competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro variants hold steady in reasoning and agentic tasks at 11.5% odds but trail in overall coding and reliability metrics, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family sits at just 2.8% amid incremental updates rather than frontier leaps. With resolution imminent and no major competing launches confirmed in the next two weeks, traders see limited scope for shifts absent surprise benchmark reversals or new model drops.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 86%
Google 12%
OpenAI 2.7%
DeepSeek <1%
$605,270 Vol.
$605,270 Vol.

Anthropic
86%

12%

OpenAI
3%

DeepSeek
<1%

xAI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Meta
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

Amazon
<1%

ByteDance
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 12%
OpenAI 2.7%
DeepSeek <1%
$605,270 Vol.
$605,270 Vol.

Anthropic
86%

12%

OpenAI
3%

DeepSeek
<1%

xAI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Meta
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

Amazon
<1%

ByteDance
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's recent releases, particularly Claude Opus 4.8 in late May, have driven its overwhelming 85.5% implied probability for second-best model status by end of June, as multiple Claude variants like Opus 4.8 and Fable 5 currently top or cluster near the top of composite leaderboards including SWE-bench, GPQA Diamond, and intelligence indices ahead of competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro variants hold steady in reasoning and agentic tasks at 11.5% odds but trail in overall coding and reliability metrics, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family sits at just 2.8% amid incremental updates rather than frontier leaps. With resolution imminent and no major competing launches confirmed in the next two weeks, traders see limited scope for shifts absent surprise benchmark reversals or new model drops.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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