Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a leading 57% implied probability for the second-best large language model (LLM) by June 30, driven by OpenAI's recent GPT-5.5 release surging to the top of LMSYS Chatbot Arena Elo ratings and coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, where it solves complex tasks at 73% success rates—dethroning prior leaders. Anthropic's April 16 Claude Opus 4.7 launch and earlier Mythos Preview have delivered standout agentic reasoning, document analysis, and GPQA scores, keeping Claude narrowly behind in a tight frontier race. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (13.5%) and OpenAI (11.3%) trail as potential #1 claimants, while xAI's Grok updates lag; watch for June model drops amid rapid iteration cycles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 57%
Google 13%
OpenAI 11.3%
xAI 3.4%
$370,781 Vol.
$370,781 Vol.

Anthropic
57%

13%

OpenAI
11%

xAI
3%

DeepSeek
3%

Z.ai
2%

Meta
1%

Amazon
1%

Moonshot
1%

Alibaba
1%

ByteDance
1%

Baidu
1%

Mistral
1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 57%
Google 13%
OpenAI 11.3%
xAI 3.4%
$370,781 Vol.
$370,781 Vol.

Anthropic
57%

13%

OpenAI
11%

xAI
3%

DeepSeek
3%

Z.ai
2%

Meta
1%

Amazon
1%

Moonshot
1%

Alibaba
1%

ByteDance
1%

Baidu
1%

Mistral
1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a leading 57% implied probability for the second-best large language model (LLM) by June 30, driven by OpenAI's recent GPT-5.5 release surging to the top of LMSYS Chatbot Arena Elo ratings and coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, where it solves complex tasks at 73% success rates—dethroning prior leaders. Anthropic's April 16 Claude Opus 4.7 launch and earlier Mythos Preview have delivered standout agentic reasoning, document analysis, and GPQA scores, keeping Claude narrowly behind in a tight frontier race. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (13.5%) and OpenAI (11.3%) trail as potential #1 claimants, while xAI's Grok updates lag; watch for June model drops amid rapid iteration cycles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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