Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 67.5% implied probability of securing the #3 large language model on LMArena's Style Control On Text Arena Overall leaderboard by June 30, driven primarily by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 launch, which delivered superior Elo scores in coding and agentic benchmarks like SWE-Bench by prioritizing substantive reasoning over stylistic flair. This positions Anthropic to hold third behind presumed leaders from OpenAI or Google, amid competition from recent releases including DeepSeek's V4 Pro and Flash (April 24 previews rivaling top U.S. models in reasoning and 1M-token context), Mistral Medium 3.5 (April 29), and Zhipu AI's GLM-5.1 (April 10 code surge). Amazon, xAI, and others trail at 44%, 43.5%, reflecting potential frontier iterations, with resolution hinging on pre-deadline benchmark shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 69%
OpenAI 48%
Mistral 45%
xAI 44%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
69%
OpenAI
48%
Mistral
45%
xAI
44%
Microsoft
44%
Meituan
44%
DeepSeek
43%
43%
Z.ai
42%
Baidu
42%
Meta
39%
ByteDance
37%
Alibaba
40%
Moonshot
40%
Amazon
44%
Anthropic 69%
OpenAI 48%
Mistral 45%
xAI 44%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$54 Vol.
69%
OpenAI
$54 Vol.
48%
Mistral
$54 Vol.
45%
xAI
$54 Vol.
44%
Microsoft
$54 Vol.
44%
Meituan
$54 Vol.
44%
DeepSeek
$54 Vol.
43%
$56 Vol.
43%
Z.ai
$54 Vol.
42%
Baidu
$54 Vol.
42%
Meta
$54 Vol.
39%
ByteDance
$54 Vol.
37%
Alibaba
$54 Vol.
40%
Moonshot
$54 Vol.
40%
Amazon
$54 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 67.5% implied probability of securing the #3 large language model on LMArena's Style Control On Text Arena Overall leaderboard by June 30, driven primarily by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 launch, which delivered superior Elo scores in coding and agentic benchmarks like SWE-Bench by prioritizing substantive reasoning over stylistic flair. This positions Anthropic to hold third behind presumed leaders from OpenAI or Google, amid competition from recent releases including DeepSeek's V4 Pro and Flash (April 24 previews rivaling top U.S. models in reasoning and 1M-token context), Mistral Medium 3.5 (April 29), and Zhipu AI's GLM-5.1 (April 10 code surge). Amazon, xAI, and others trail at 44%, 43.5%, reflecting potential frontier iterations, with resolution hinging on pre-deadline benchmark shifts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$805End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 67.5% implied probability of securing the #3 large language model on LMArena's Style Control On Text Arena Overall leaderboard by June 30, driven primarily by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 launch, which delivered superior Elo scores in coding and agentic benchmarks like SWE-Bench by prioritizing substantive reasoning over stylistic flair. This positions Anthropic to hold third behind presumed leaders from OpenAI or Google, amid competition from recent releases including DeepSeek's V4 Pro and Flash (April 24 previews rivaling top U.S. models in reasoning and 1M-token context), Mistral Medium 3.5 (April 29), and Zhipu AI's GLM-5.1 (April 10 code surge). Amazon, xAI, and others trail at 44%, 43.5%, reflecting potential frontier iterations, with resolution hinging on pre-deadline benchmark shifts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$805End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 67.5% implied probability of securing the #3 large language model on LMArena's Style Control On Text Arena Overall leaderboard by June 30, driven primarily by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 launch, which delivered superior Elo scores in coding and agentic benchmarks like SWE-Bench by prioritizing substantive reasoning over stylistic flair. This positions Anthropic to hold third behind presumed leaders from OpenAI or Google, amid competition from recent releases including DeepSeek's V4 Pro and Flash (April 24 previews rivaling top U.S. models in reasoning and 1M-token context), Mistral Medium 3.5 (April 29), and Zhipu AI's GLM-5.1 (April 10 code surge). Amazon, xAI, and others trail at 44%, 43.5%, reflecting potential frontier iterations, with resolution hinging on pre-deadline benchmark shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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