Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 releases have driven strong trader sentiment by claiming top spots on multiple June 2026 leaderboards for overall quality, agentic coding on SWE-bench, and reasoning benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.4 variants remain competitive across math and general tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro leads certain high-difficulty evaluations such as Humanity’s Last Exam. With only 16 days until resolution, the short window reduces the chance of new flagship launches shifting the ranking, though incremental updates or benchmark refreshes could still influence outcomes. Market-implied odds reflect the tight clustering among these three labs amid ongoing specialization rather than outright dominance by any single model.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,637,948 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
OpenAI
5%
xAI
1%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Baidu
1%
Nvidia
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
<1%
$1,637,948 Vol.
OpenAI
$439,790 Vol.
5%
xAI
$574,921 Vol.
1%
Meta
$21,122 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$281,905 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$15,988 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$13,633 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$7,222 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$6,936 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$14,088 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$4,372 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 releases have driven strong trader sentiment by claiming top spots on multiple June 2026 leaderboards for overall quality, agentic coding on SWE-bench, and reasoning benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.4 variants remain competitive across math and general tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro leads certain high-difficulty evaluations such as Humanity’s Last Exam. With only 16 days until resolution, the short window reduces the chance of new flagship launches shifting the ranking, though incremental updates or benchmark refreshes could still influence outcomes. Market-implied odds reflect the tight clustering among these three labs amid ongoing specialization rather than outright dominance by any single model.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Market Opened: Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$1,637,948End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 releases have driven strong trader sentiment by claiming top spots on multiple June 2026 leaderboards for overall quality, agentic coding on SWE-bench, and reasoning benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.4 variants remain competitive across math and general tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro leads certain high-difficulty evaluations such as Humanity’s Last Exam. With only 16 days until resolution, the short window reduces the chance of new flagship launches shifting the ranking, though incremental updates or benchmark refreshes could still influence outcomes. Market-implied odds reflect the tight clustering among these three labs amid ongoing specialization rather than outright dominance by any single model.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$1,637,948End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 releases have driven strong trader sentiment by claiming top spots on multiple June 2026 leaderboards for overall quality, agentic coding on SWE-bench, and reasoning benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.4 variants remain competitive across math and general tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro leads certain high-difficulty evaluations such as Humanity’s Last Exam. With only 16 days until resolution, the short window reduces the chance of new flagship launches shifting the ranking, though incremental updates or benchmark refreshes could still influence outcomes. Market-implied odds reflect the tight clustering among these three labs amid ongoing specialization rather than outright dominance by any single model.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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