Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability for "No" in Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement from OpenAI and Sam Altman, driven primarily by Musk's recent court filing and testimony pledging all damages—potentially $150 billion or more—to OpenAI's non-profit arm rather than himself personally. This high-stakes federal trial in Oakland, now in its fourth day as of April 30, 2026, centers on allegations that OpenAI abandoned its founding non-profit mission for closed-source, profit-driven artificial intelligence development amid fierce competition from xAI. Musk's repeated emphasis that "he doesn't sue for money" and seeks only structural remedies like removing Altman from the board solidifies trader conviction, though an unexpected personal award, settlement twist, or post-trial appeal could theoretically shift dynamics before the mid-May ruling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,767 Vol.
$24,767 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$24,767 Vol.
$24,767 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability for "No" in Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement from OpenAI and Sam Altman, driven primarily by Musk's recent court filing and testimony pledging all damages—potentially $150 billion or more—to OpenAI's non-profit arm rather than himself personally. This high-stakes federal trial in Oakland, now in its fourth day as of April 30, 2026, centers on allegations that OpenAI abandoned its founding non-profit mission for closed-source, profit-driven artificial intelligence development amid fierce competition from xAI. Musk's repeated emphasis that "he doesn't sue for money" and seeks only structural remedies like removing Altman from the board solidifies trader conviction, though an unexpected personal award, settlement twist, or post-trial appeal could theoretically shift dynamics before the mid-May ruling.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$24,767End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability for "No" in Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement from OpenAI and Sam Altman, driven primarily by Musk's recent court filing and testimony pledging all damages—potentially $150 billion or more—to OpenAI's non-profit arm rather than himself personally. This high-stakes federal trial in Oakland, now in its fourth day as of April 30, 2026, centers on allegations that OpenAI abandoned its founding non-profit mission for closed-source, profit-driven artificial intelligence development amid fierce competition from xAI. Musk's repeated emphasis that "he doesn't sue for money" and seeks only structural remedies like removing Altman from the board solidifies trader conviction, though an unexpected personal award, settlement twist, or post-trial appeal could theoretically shift dynamics before the mid-May ruling.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$24,767End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability for "No" in Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement from OpenAI and Sam Altman, driven primarily by Musk's recent court filing and testimony pledging all damages—potentially $150 billion or more—to OpenAI's non-profit arm rather than himself personally. This high-stakes federal trial in Oakland, now in its fourth day as of April 30, 2026, centers on allegations that OpenAI abandoned its founding non-profit mission for closed-source, profit-driven artificial intelligence development amid fierce competition from xAI. Musk's repeated emphasis that "he doesn't sue for money" and seeks only structural remedies like removing Altman from the board solidifies trader conviction, though an unexpected personal award, settlement twist, or post-trial appeal could theoretically shift dynamics before the mid-May ruling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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