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GPT 5 predictions & odds

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GPT-6 released by…?

GPT-6 released by…?

84%

December 31, 2026

$308K Vol.

$14.1K Liq.

45

Which company has best AI model end of June?

Which company has best AI model end of June?

64%

Anthropic

$5M Vol.

$145K today

$855K Liq.

61

Ends in 2 months

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

50%

Anthropic

$1M Vol.

$185K Liq.

19

Ends in 2 months

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

15%

December 31, 2026

$253K Vol.

$985 Liq.

32

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?

71%

$22.8K Vol.

$2.0K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

GPT-5.6 released by...?

GPT-5.6 released by...?

92%

July 31

$5.2K Vol.

$6.7K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Best AI model on May 1? (Style Control Off)

Best AI model on May 1? (Style Control Off)

97%

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

$19.8K Vol.

$49.4K Liq.

Ends in about 8 hours

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

40%

50%+

$21.1K Vol.

$1.4K Liq.

1

Ends in 2 months

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

40%

60%+

$31.4K Vol.

$2.3K Liq.

4

Ends in 2 months

Which company has the best AI model end of April?

Which company has the best AI model end of April?

100%

Anthropic

$21M Vol.

$219K today

$4M Liq.

3

Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)

Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)

100%

Anthropic

$2M Vol.

$453K Liq.

Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

75%

$41.0K Vol.

$7.8K Liq.

10

Ends in 8 months

Which company has the second best AI model end of April?

Which company has the second best AI model end of April?

100%

Anthropic

$237K Vol.

$180K Liq.

Counter-Strike: Golden Five vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group A

Counter-Strike: Golden Five vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group A

100%

LPH Gaming

$33.2K Vol.

$0 Liq.

Grok 5 released by...?

Grok 5 released by...?

9%

June 30, 2026

$148K Vol.

$2.7K Liq.

30

Ends in 2 months

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?

40%

2

$14.3K Vol.

$14.8K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Claude 5 released by…?

Claude 5 released by…?

25%

June 30, 2026

$4M Vol.

$53.9K today

$66.8K Liq.

202

What will happen before GTA VI?

What will happen before GTA VI?

97%

Drake releases Iceman

$22M Vol.

$667K Liq.

823

Ends in 3 months

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

37%

$295K Vol.

$5.2K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

GA-05 House Election Winner

GA-05 House Election Winner

94%

Democratic Party

$17.3K Vol.

$31.7K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like GPT 5.

Polymarket currently hosts 114 active markets for GPT 5 that lets you track or trade on predictions like “GPT-6 released by…?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $56.5M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “What will happen before GTA VI?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “What will happen before GTA VI?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 97% chance to Drake releases Iceman. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on GPT 5 predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.