Anthropic's recent releases of Claude Opus 4.8 in late May and Claude Fable 5 on June 9 have driven the strong market consensus, as both models quickly claimed the top spots on leading benchmarks including the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (around 61) and various SWE-bench coding evaluations. These frontier large language models outperform GPT-5.5 and Gemini variants in agentic workflows, complex reasoning, and production coding tasks, with traders viewing the two-week window to end of June as too narrow for meaningful catch-up from competitors. Google’s May Gemini 3.5 Flash and Pro updates improved price-performance and agent capabilities but have not displaced Claude’s lead, while OpenAI’s earlier GPT-5.5 series remains competitive on general knowledge yet trails on specialized metrics. Minor players like xAI and Meta show even less momentum in current leaderboards.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 89.3%
Google 7%
OpenAI 4.5%
xAI <1%
$14,858,466 Vol.
$14,858,466 Vol.

Anthropic
89%

7%

OpenAI
5%

xAI
<1%

Meta
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

Amazon
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 89.3%
Google 7%
OpenAI 4.5%
xAI <1%
$14,858,466 Vol.
$14,858,466 Vol.

Anthropic
89%

7%

OpenAI
5%

xAI
<1%

Meta
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

Amazon
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's recent releases of Claude Opus 4.8 in late May and Claude Fable 5 on June 9 have driven the strong market consensus, as both models quickly claimed the top spots on leading benchmarks including the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (around 61) and various SWE-bench coding evaluations. These frontier large language models outperform GPT-5.5 and Gemini variants in agentic workflows, complex reasoning, and production coding tasks, with traders viewing the two-week window to end of June as too narrow for meaningful catch-up from competitors. Google’s May Gemini 3.5 Flash and Pro updates improved price-performance and agent capabilities but have not displaced Claude’s lead, while OpenAI’s earlier GPT-5.5 series remains competitive on general knowledge yet trails on specialized metrics. Minor players like xAI and Meta show even less momentum in current leaderboards.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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