Anthropic's recent public release of Fable 5, its first widely available Mythos-class model, on June 9 drives the 89.7% market-implied probability that it holds the best AI model by end of June. This follows the April unveiling of the more advanced Mythos lineup and builds on Claude Opus 4.8's strong benchmark performance in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, where it leads composite leaderboards ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5 variants and Google's Gemini models. Traders see limited near-term catalysts for competitors to close the gap in the remaining two weeks, though any surprise June releases could shift the closely watched frontier positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 89.7%
Google 7%
OpenAI 4.3%
xAI <1%
$14,853,448 Vol.
$14,853,448 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
90%
7%
OpenAI
4%
xAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 89.7%
Google 7%
OpenAI 4.3%
xAI <1%
$14,853,448 Vol.
$14,853,448 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$1,728,716 Vol.
90%
$1,201,353 Vol.
7%
OpenAI
$1,119,438 Vol.
4%
xAI
$1,759,926 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$867,081 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$994,821 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,105,944 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$924,752 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$669,638 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$615,550 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$778,105 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$989,048 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$818,497 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$752,970 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$528,249 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent public release of Fable 5, its first widely available Mythos-class model, on June 9 drives the 89.7% market-implied probability that it holds the best AI model by end of June. This follows the April unveiling of the more advanced Mythos lineup and builds on Claude Opus 4.8's strong benchmark performance in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, where it leads composite leaderboards ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5 variants and Google's Gemini models. Traders see limited near-term catalysts for competitors to close the gap in the remaining two weeks, though any surprise June releases could shift the closely watched frontier positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$14,853,448End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent public release of Fable 5, its first widely available Mythos-class model, on June 9 drives the 89.7% market-implied probability that it holds the best AI model by end of June. This follows the April unveiling of the more advanced Mythos lineup and builds on Claude Opus 4.8's strong benchmark performance in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, where it leads composite leaderboards ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5 variants and Google's Gemini models. Traders see limited near-term catalysts for competitors to close the gap in the remaining two weeks, though any surprise June releases could shift the closely watched frontier positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$14,853,448End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's recent public release of Fable 5, its first widely available Mythos-class model, on June 9 drives the 89.7% market-implied probability that it holds the best AI model by end of June. This follows the April unveiling of the more advanced Mythos lineup and builds on Claude Opus 4.8's strong benchmark performance in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, where it leads composite leaderboards ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5 variants and Google's Gemini models. Traders see limited near-term catalysts for competitors to close the gap in the remaining two weeks, though any surprise June releases could shift the closely watched frontier positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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