Anthropic commands a 57.5% implied probability for the second-best frontier AI model by June's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance in recent Arena.ai benchmarks, including #1 spots in Code Arena for agentic coding and Document Arena for long-context reasoning, as of late April evaluations. This follows Anthropic's April 16 launch of Opus 4.7 and sweeping the top four positions in multi-agent tests on April 26. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 release on April 23 trails in head-to-heads like Tom's Guide comparisons, while Google's fresh Gemini 3 rollout bolsters its 13.5% odds amid a tight race—Stanford's April 28 AI Index shows Anthropic at 1503 Elo, edging xAI (1495), Google (1494), and OpenAI (1481). Traders eye June releases from these labs as key catalysts for potential leaderboard shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 57%
Google 13%
OpenAI 10.0%
xAI 3.5%
$372,045 Vol.
$372,045 Vol.

Anthropic
57%

13%

OpenAI
10%

xAI
3%

DeepSeek
3%

Meta
1%

Z.ai
1%

Amazon
1%

Moonshot
1%

Alibaba
1%

ByteDance
1%

Baidu
1%

Mistral
1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 57%
Google 13%
OpenAI 10.0%
xAI 3.5%
$372,045 Vol.
$372,045 Vol.

Anthropic
57%

13%

OpenAI
10%

xAI
3%

DeepSeek
3%

Meta
1%

Z.ai
1%

Amazon
1%

Moonshot
1%

Alibaba
1%

ByteDance
1%

Baidu
1%

Mistral
1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic commands a 57.5% implied probability for the second-best frontier AI model by June's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance in recent Arena.ai benchmarks, including #1 spots in Code Arena for agentic coding and Document Arena for long-context reasoning, as of late April evaluations. This follows Anthropic's April 16 launch of Opus 4.7 and sweeping the top four positions in multi-agent tests on April 26. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 release on April 23 trails in head-to-heads like Tom's Guide comparisons, while Google's fresh Gemini 3 rollout bolsters its 13.5% odds amid a tight race—Stanford's April 28 AI Index shows Anthropic at 1503 Elo, edging xAI (1495), Google (1494), and OpenAI (1481). Traders eye June releases from these labs as key catalysts for potential leaderboard shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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