Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability that Apple remains the third-largest company by market capitalization at May 31 close, reflecting its current $3.98 trillion valuation—trailing NVIDIA ($4.89 trillion) and Alphabet ($4.51 trillion) but well ahead of Microsoft ($3.0 trillion). Yesterday's blockbuster Q1 earnings from Alphabet, with Google Cloud revenue surging 63% to $20 billion and shares jumping 7.4%, alongside Microsoft's fiscal Q3 revenue beat to $82.9 billion driven by AI and cloud growth (shares +5.1%), have narrowed competitive gaps and boosted challenger odds to 13.5% for Alphabet and 10% for Microsoft. Apple's Q2 earnings today represent the key near-term catalyst, with focus on iPhone sales and services margins amid steady Fed policy. NVIDIA's 8.1% odds stem from potential AI hype cooldown risks.