Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman, center on Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and enrichment activities, with recent May 2026 talks yielding reported progress on zero stockpiling and dilution commitments but persistent gaps over permanent limits or pauses on enrichment levels. Trader consensus at 50.5% for a Yes outcome by December 31 reflects this competitive balance, shaped by Iran's assertions of its NPT rights to enrichment for civilian purposes alongside U.S. demands for verifiable restrictions exceeding prior JCPOA terms. Scheduled diplomatic milestones, IAEA verification outcomes, sanctions relief packages, or escalatory regional developments could shift probabilities in either direction before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$527,459 Vol.
$527,459 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$527,459 Vol.
$527,459 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman, center on Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and enrichment activities, with recent May 2026 talks yielding reported progress on zero stockpiling and dilution commitments but persistent gaps over permanent limits or pauses on enrichment levels. Trader consensus at 50.5% for a Yes outcome by December 31 reflects this competitive balance, shaped by Iran's assertions of its NPT rights to enrichment for civilian purposes alongside U.S. demands for verifiable restrictions exceeding prior JCPOA terms. Scheduled diplomatic milestones, IAEA verification outcomes, sanctions relief packages, or escalatory regional developments could shift probabilities in either direction before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volumen
$527,459Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman, center on Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and enrichment activities, with recent May 2026 talks yielding reported progress on zero stockpiling and dilution commitments but persistent gaps over permanent limits or pauses on enrichment levels. Trader consensus at 50.5% for a Yes outcome by December 31 reflects this competitive balance, shaped by Iran's assertions of its NPT rights to enrichment for civilian purposes alongside U.S. demands for verifiable restrictions exceeding prior JCPOA terms. Scheduled diplomatic milestones, IAEA verification outcomes, sanctions relief packages, or escalatory regional developments could shift probabilities in either direction before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$527,459Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman, center on Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and enrichment activities, with recent May 2026 talks yielding reported progress on zero stockpiling and dilution commitments but persistent gaps over permanent limits or pauses on enrichment levels. Trader consensus at 50.5% for a Yes outcome by December 31 reflects this competitive balance, shaped by Iran's assertions of its NPT rights to enrichment for civilian purposes alongside U.S. demands for verifiable restrictions exceeding prior JCPOA terms. Scheduled diplomatic milestones, IAEA verification outcomes, sanctions relief packages, or escalatory regional developments could shift probabilities in either direction before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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