Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.8% due to France, the UK, and Germany's consistent defensive posture throughout the 2026 Iran conflict, with no offensive strikes conducted despite US and Israeli airstrikes since late February. Joint E3 statements from early March emphasized proportionate defensive measures against Iranian drones and missiles targeting regional allies, including base access for US operations and interceptions near Cyprus, but rejected escalation. A US-Iran ceasefire on April 8 and diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have further de-escalated tensions, amid transatlantic rifts over burden-sharing. Realistic shifts could stem from major Iranian attacks on European assets or NATO Article 5 invocation before June 30.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Francia, Reino Unido o Alemania atacarán Irán antes del 30 de junio?
¿Francia, Reino Unido o Alemania atacarán Irán antes del 30 de junio?
Sí
$840,937 Vol.
$840,937 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$840,937 Vol.
$840,937 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.8% due to France, the UK, and Germany's consistent defensive posture throughout the 2026 Iran conflict, with no offensive strikes conducted despite US and Israeli airstrikes since late February. Joint E3 statements from early March emphasized proportionate defensive measures against Iranian drones and missiles targeting regional allies, including base access for US operations and interceptions near Cyprus, but rejected escalation. A US-Iran ceasefire on April 8 and diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have further de-escalated tensions, amid transatlantic rifts over burden-sharing. Realistic shifts could stem from major Iranian attacks on European assets or NATO Article 5 invocation before June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ET
Volumen
$840,937Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.8% due to France, the UK, and Germany's consistent defensive posture throughout the 2026 Iran conflict, with no offensive strikes conducted despite US and Israeli airstrikes since late February. Joint E3 statements from early March emphasized proportionate defensive measures against Iranian drones and missiles targeting regional allies, including base access for US operations and interceptions near Cyprus, but rejected escalation. A US-Iran ceasefire on April 8 and diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have further de-escalated tensions, amid transatlantic rifts over burden-sharing. Realistic shifts could stem from major Iranian attacks on European assets or NATO Article 5 invocation before June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$840,937Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.8% due to France, the UK, and Germany's consistent defensive posture throughout the 2026 Iran conflict, with no offensive strikes conducted despite US and Israeli airstrikes since late February. Joint E3 statements from early March emphasized proportionate defensive measures against Iranian drones and missiles targeting regional allies, including base access for US operations and interceptions near Cyprus, but rejected escalation. A US-Iran ceasefire on April 8 and diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have further de-escalated tensions, amid transatlantic rifts over burden-sharing. Realistic shifts could stem from major Iranian attacks on European assets or NATO Article 5 invocation before June 30.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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