Recent progress in indirect US-Iran talks, including a late-May memorandum of understanding extending the ceasefire and opening the Strait of Hormuz while launching nuclear discussions, has narrowed gaps on sanctions relief and non-proliferation commitments. Persistent disagreements remain over verifiable limits on uranium enrichment, disposal of Iran's highly enriched stockpile, and binding technical safeguards, with President Trump emphasizing maximalist terms and Tehran resisting curbs on its program. These unresolved issues, combined with the need for detailed verification diplomacy before the July 31 deadline, sustain the closely contested trader consensus favoring no official agreement, though further concessions or accelerated mediation could shift probabilities in either direction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoUS-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
$128,881 Vol.
$128,881 Vol.
31 jul 2026
$128,881 Vol.
$128,881 Vol.
31 jul 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent progress in indirect US-Iran talks, including a late-May memorandum of understanding extending the ceasefire and opening the Strait of Hormuz while launching nuclear discussions, has narrowed gaps on sanctions relief and non-proliferation commitments. Persistent disagreements remain over verifiable limits on uranium enrichment, disposal of Iran's highly enriched stockpile, and binding technical safeguards, with President Trump emphasizing maximalist terms and Tehran resisting curbs on its program. These unresolved issues, combined with the need for detailed verification diplomacy before the July 31 deadline, sustain the closely contested trader consensus favoring no official agreement, though further concessions or accelerated mediation could shift probabilities in either direction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volumen
$128,881Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent progress in indirect US-Iran talks, including a late-May memorandum of understanding extending the ceasefire and opening the Strait of Hormuz while launching nuclear discussions, has narrowed gaps on sanctions relief and non-proliferation commitments. Persistent disagreements remain over verifiable limits on uranium enrichment, disposal of Iran's highly enriched stockpile, and binding technical safeguards, with President Trump emphasizing maximalist terms and Tehran resisting curbs on its program. These unresolved issues, combined with the need for detailed verification diplomacy before the July 31 deadline, sustain the closely contested trader consensus favoring no official agreement, though further concessions or accelerated mediation could shift probabilities in either direction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$129,008Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent progress in indirect US-Iran talks, including a late-May memorandum of understanding extending the ceasefire and opening the Strait of Hormuz while launching nuclear discussions, has narrowed gaps on sanctions relief and non-proliferation commitments. Persistent disagreements remain over verifiable limits on uranium enrichment, disposal of Iran's highly enriched stockpile, and binding technical safeguards, with President Trump emphasizing maximalist terms and Tehran resisting curbs on its program. These unresolved issues, combined with the need for detailed verification diplomacy before the July 31 deadline, sustain the closely contested trader consensus favoring no official agreement, though further concessions or accelerated mediation could shift probabilities in either direction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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