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Politics·Bolojan

Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?

icon for Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?
Politics·Bolojan

Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?

36% chance
Polymarket
NEW
36% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Romanian Chamber of Deputies and Senate are dissolved by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Romanian traders see a near-even split on parliament dissolution by July 31, driven by the ongoing political crisis after the Social Democrats (PSD) quit Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan's pro-European coalition in late April over austerity disputes, resigning key ministers and allying with far-right AUR for a no-confidence motion signed by 251 MPs, set for joint session vote on May 5. Bolojan's minority government lacks a secure majority, relying on unpredictable fringe parliamentary groups, but constitutional barriers—requiring President Nicușor Dan to consult leaders before dissolving after two failed investiture votes within 60 days—favor rapid coalition talks to avert snap elections, as polls show AUR surging. A no-confidence defeat would drop Yes odds sharply; passage could spike them if investitures deadlock amid anti-AUR unity.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Romanian Chamber of Deputies and Senate are dissolved by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Romanian Chamber of Deputies and Senate are dissolved by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Romanian Chamber of Deputies and Senate are dissolved by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Romanian traders see a near-even split on parliament dissolution by July 31, driven by the ongoing political crisis after the Social Democrats (PSD) quit Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan's pro-European coalition in late April over austerity disputes, resigning key ministers and allying with far-right AUR for a no-confidence motion signed by 251 MPs, set for joint session vote on May 5. Bolojan's minority government lacks a secure majority, relying on unpredictable fringe parliamentary groups, but constitutional barriers—requiring President Nicușor Dan to consult leaders before dissolving after two failed investiture votes within 60 days—favor rapid coalition talks to avert snap elections, as polls show AUR surging. A no-confidence defeat would drop Yes odds sharply; passage could spike them if investitures deadlock amid anti-AUR unity.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Romanian Chamber of Deputies and Senate are dissolved by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Romanian Chamber of Deputies and Senate are dissolved by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 36% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 36¢, the market collectively assigns a 36% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?" is 36% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 36% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.