Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 40-64 times from May 2-4 at 53% implied probability, reflecting his subdued recent posting cadence after last week's April 24-May 1 market resolved at 188 total posts—averaging 27 per day, down from March's 42 daily average. Late April saw particularly low days (5-11 posts), signaling a momentum shift possibly tied to his DOGE role and fewer viral catalysts, with weekends historically quieter. The nearby 65-89 bin at 26.5% captures upside risk from sudden political or Tesla buzz, but no confirmed events loom before the May 5 resolution, keeping lower totals as the skin-in-the-game frontrunner amid fluctuating social media habits.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 53%
65-89 27%
<40 11%
90-114 9%
NEW
$25,859 Vol.
NEW
$25,859 Vol.
May 4, 2026
<40
11%
40-64
53%
65-89
27%
90-114
9%
115-139
4%
140-164
1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 53%
65-89 27%
<40 11%
90-114 9%
NEW
$25,859 Vol.
NEW
$25,859 Vol.
May 4, 2026
<40
$2,850 Vol.
11%
40-64
$2,546 Vol.
53%
65-89
$925 Vol.
27%
90-114
$7,674 Vol.
9%
115-139
$1,481 Vol.
4%
140-164
$1,569 Vol.
1%
165-189
$1,049 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$2,498 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$1,859 Vol.
<1%
240+
$3,410 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 2 12:00 PM ET to May 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 40-64 times from May 2-4 at 53% implied probability, reflecting his subdued recent posting cadence after last week's April 24-May 1 market resolved at 188 total posts—averaging 27 per day, down from March's 42 daily average. Late April saw particularly low days (5-11 posts), signaling a momentum shift possibly tied to his DOGE role and fewer viral catalysts, with weekends historically quieter. The nearby 65-89 bin at 26.5% captures upside risk from sudden political or Tesla buzz, but no confirmed events loom before the May 5 resolution, keeping lower totals as the skin-in-the-game frontrunner amid fluctuating social media habits.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 2 12:00 PM ET to May 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Volume
$25,859End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 2 12:00 PM ET to May 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 40-64 times from May 2-4 at 53% implied probability, reflecting his subdued recent posting cadence after last week's April 24-May 1 market resolved at 188 total posts—averaging 27 per day, down from March's 42 daily average. Late April saw particularly low days (5-11 posts), signaling a momentum shift possibly tied to his DOGE role and fewer viral catalysts, with weekends historically quieter. The nearby 65-89 bin at 26.5% captures upside risk from sudden political or Tesla buzz, but no confirmed events loom before the May 5 resolution, keeping lower totals as the skin-in-the-game frontrunner amid fluctuating social media habits.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 2 12:00 PM ET to May 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$25,859End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 40-64 times from May 2-4 at 53% implied probability, reflecting his subdued recent posting cadence after last week's April 24-May 1 market resolved at 188 total posts—averaging 27 per day, down from March's 42 daily average. Late April saw particularly low days (5-11 posts), signaling a momentum shift possibly tied to his DOGE role and fewer viral catalysts, with weekends historically quieter. The nearby 65-89 bin at 26.5% captures upside risk from sudden political or Tesla buzz, but no confirmed events loom before the May 5 resolution, keeping lower totals as the skin-in-the-game frontrunner amid fluctuating social media habits.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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