Trader consensus on the @khamenei_ir account's post count for May 5–12 reflects high uncertainty following a sharp decline in activity since mid-April, with no posts in the past 19 days despite ongoing US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz highlighted by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's April 30 statement asserting control amid ceasefire talks. This irregular pattern—bursts around events like Easter (multiple posts April 5) versus prolonged silences post-Ali Khamenei's March martyrdom—keeps probabilities tightly clustered near 25–27% across mid-to-high ranges, including a slight edge for 45–49. Escalation in regional diplomacy, sanctions, or commemorative dates could spur archival statements and boost higher bins; sustained internal leadership transitions or health concerns for Mojtaba might entrench low output below 10.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKhamenei # posts May 5 - May 12, 2026?
Khamenei # posts May 5 - May 12, 2026?
5-9 27%
10-14 25%
<5 25%
30-34 <1%
NEW
NEW
May 12, 2026
<5
25%
5-9
27%
10-14
25%
15-19
1%
20-24
1%
25-29
1%
30-34
1%
35-39
1%
40-44
1%
45-49
1%
50-54
1%
55-59
1%
60+
1%
5-9 27%
10-14 25%
<5 25%
30-34 <1%
NEW
NEW
May 12, 2026
<5
$0 Vol.
25%
5-9
$2 Vol.
27%
10-14
$0 Vol.
25%
15-19
$15 Vol.
1%
20-24
$15 Vol.
1%
25-29
$15 Vol.
1%
30-34
$15 Vol.
1%
35-39
$15 Vol.
1%
40-44
$23 Vol.
1%
45-49
$25 Vol.
1%
50-54
$29 Vol.
1%
55-59
$25 Vol.
1%
60+
$25 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 5, 12:00 PM ET and May 12, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on the @khamenei_ir account's post count for May 5–12 reflects high uncertainty following a sharp decline in activity since mid-April, with no posts in the past 19 days despite ongoing US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz highlighted by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's April 30 statement asserting control amid ceasefire talks. This irregular pattern—bursts around events like Easter (multiple posts April 5) versus prolonged silences post-Ali Khamenei's March martyrdom—keeps probabilities tightly clustered near 25–27% across mid-to-high ranges, including a slight edge for 45–49. Escalation in regional diplomacy, sanctions, or commemorative dates could spur archival statements and boost higher bins; sustained internal leadership transitions or health concerns for Mojtaba might entrench low output below 10.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 5, 12:00 PM ET and May 12, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$205End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 5, 12:00 PM ET and May 12, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on the @khamenei_ir account's post count for May 5–12 reflects high uncertainty following a sharp decline in activity since mid-April, with no posts in the past 19 days despite ongoing US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz highlighted by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's April 30 statement asserting control amid ceasefire talks. This irregular pattern—bursts around events like Easter (multiple posts April 5) versus prolonged silences post-Ali Khamenei's March martyrdom—keeps probabilities tightly clustered near 25–27% across mid-to-high ranges, including a slight edge for 45–49. Escalation in regional diplomacy, sanctions, or commemorative dates could spur archival statements and boost higher bins; sustained internal leadership transitions or health concerns for Mojtaba might entrench low output below 10.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 5, 12:00 PM ET and May 12, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$205End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the @khamenei_ir account's post count for May 5–12 reflects high uncertainty following a sharp decline in activity since mid-April, with no posts in the past 19 days despite ongoing US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz highlighted by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's April 30 statement asserting control amid ceasefire talks. This irregular pattern—bursts around events like Easter (multiple posts April 5) versus prolonged silences post-Ali Khamenei's March martyrdom—keeps probabilities tightly clustered near 25–27% across mid-to-high ranges, including a slight edge for 45–49. Escalation in regional diplomacy, sanctions, or commemorative dates could spur archival statements and boost higher bins; sustained internal leadership transitions or health concerns for Mojtaba might entrench low output below 10.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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