Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the 40-64 tweet range at 60.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X posts from May 4-6, reflecting his recent posting pace of 17-25 per day in early May—down from late April peaks like 56 on April 27 and 30 on April 29. X trackers show 103 posts from April 28 to May 3 (averaging under 20 daily) and 25 on May 2 alone, signaling a quieter phase amid variable engagement driven by SpaceX updates, AI commentary, and cultural debates. No major catalysts emerged in the last 48 hours, but historical spikes from viral moments or company news could push toward 65-89 (15.5%), with the market resolving post-May 6 ET.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 61%
65-89 16%
<40 14%
90-114 6%
NEW
$25,401 Vol.
NEW
$25,401 Vol.
May 6, 2026
<40
14%
40-64
61%
65-89
16%
90-114
6%
115-139
2%
140-164
1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 61%
65-89 16%
<40 14%
90-114 6%
NEW
$25,401 Vol.
NEW
$25,401 Vol.
May 6, 2026
<40
$4,808 Vol.
14%
40-64
$2,081 Vol.
61%
65-89
$2,619 Vol.
16%
90-114
$693 Vol.
6%
115-139
$2,868 Vol.
2%
140-164
$1,950 Vol.
1%
165-189
$1,439 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$523 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$1,612 Vol.
<1%
240+
$6,830 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the 40-64 tweet range at 60.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X posts from May 4-6, reflecting his recent posting pace of 17-25 per day in early May—down from late April peaks like 56 on April 27 and 30 on April 29. X trackers show 103 posts from April 28 to May 3 (averaging under 20 daily) and 25 on May 2 alone, signaling a quieter phase amid variable engagement driven by SpaceX updates, AI commentary, and cultural debates. No major catalysts emerged in the last 48 hours, but historical spikes from viral moments or company news could push toward 65-89 (15.5%), with the market resolving post-May 6 ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$25,401End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the 40-64 tweet range at 60.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X posts from May 4-6, reflecting his recent posting pace of 17-25 per day in early May—down from late April peaks like 56 on April 27 and 30 on April 29. X trackers show 103 posts from April 28 to May 3 (averaging under 20 daily) and 25 on May 2 alone, signaling a quieter phase amid variable engagement driven by SpaceX updates, AI commentary, and cultural debates. No major catalysts emerged in the last 48 hours, but historical spikes from viral moments or company news could push toward 65-89 (15.5%), with the market resolving post-May 6 ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$25,401End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the 40-64 tweet range at 60.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X posts from May 4-6, reflecting his recent posting pace of 17-25 per day in early May—down from late April peaks like 56 on April 27 and 30 on April 29. X trackers show 103 posts from April 28 to May 3 (averaging under 20 daily) and 25 on May 2 alone, signaling a quieter phase amid variable engagement driven by SpaceX updates, AI commentary, and cultural debates. No major catalysts emerged in the last 48 hours, but historical spikes from viral moments or company news could push toward 65-89 (15.5%), with the market resolving post-May 6 ET.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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