Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 65-89 posts (41%) and 40-64 (38%) for Elon Musk's X activity over May 7-9, reflecting his steady recent pace of about 20 posts per day, with 137 confirmed from April 28 to May 5 per XTracker data synced May 4. This baseline supports mid-range outcomes, but high uncertainty arises from Musk's volatile posting patterns—spiking during viral company updates like Tesla sales boasts or xAI Grok benchmarks, as seen in his active May 4 engagement on AI leadership and cultural critiques. A SpaceX Starlink launch slated for May 9 could drive a late surge, while quieter periods without political firestorms or Neuralink reveals favor the lower bin; watch for breaking news as the key swing factor in this skin-in-the-game crowd wisdom.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 57%
65-89 27%
<40 12%
115-139 5%
NEW
NEW
May 9, 2026
<40
12%
40-64
57%
65-89
27%
90-114
4%
115-139
5%
140-164
2%
165-189
2%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 57%
65-89 27%
<40 12%
115-139 5%
NEW
NEW
May 9, 2026
<40
$206 Vol.
12%
40-64
$87 Vol.
57%
65-89
$60 Vol.
27%
90-114
$170 Vol.
4%
115-139
$0 Vol.
5%
140-164
$43 Vol.
2%
165-189
$60 Vol.
2%
190-214
$100 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$105 Vol.
<1%
240+
$105 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 7 12:00 PM ET to May 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 65-89 posts (41%) and 40-64 (38%) for Elon Musk's X activity over May 7-9, reflecting his steady recent pace of about 20 posts per day, with 137 confirmed from April 28 to May 5 per XTracker data synced May 4. This baseline supports mid-range outcomes, but high uncertainty arises from Musk's volatile posting patterns—spiking during viral company updates like Tesla sales boasts or xAI Grok benchmarks, as seen in his active May 4 engagement on AI leadership and cultural critiques. A SpaceX Starlink launch slated for May 9 could drive a late surge, while quieter periods without political firestorms or Neuralink reveals favor the lower bin; watch for breaking news as the key swing factor in this skin-in-the-game crowd wisdom.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 7 12:00 PM ET to May 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$935End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 7 12:00 PM ET to May 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 65-89 posts (41%) and 40-64 (38%) for Elon Musk's X activity over May 7-9, reflecting his steady recent pace of about 20 posts per day, with 137 confirmed from April 28 to May 5 per XTracker data synced May 4. This baseline supports mid-range outcomes, but high uncertainty arises from Musk's volatile posting patterns—spiking during viral company updates like Tesla sales boasts or xAI Grok benchmarks, as seen in his active May 4 engagement on AI leadership and cultural critiques. A SpaceX Starlink launch slated for May 9 could drive a late surge, while quieter periods without political firestorms or Neuralink reveals favor the lower bin; watch for breaking news as the key swing factor in this skin-in-the-game crowd wisdom.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 7 12:00 PM ET to May 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$935End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 65-89 posts (41%) and 40-64 (38%) for Elon Musk's X activity over May 7-9, reflecting his steady recent pace of about 20 posts per day, with 137 confirmed from April 28 to May 5 per XTracker data synced May 4. This baseline supports mid-range outcomes, but high uncertainty arises from Musk's volatile posting patterns—spiking during viral company updates like Tesla sales boasts or xAI Grok benchmarks, as seen in his active May 4 engagement on AI leadership and cultural critiques. A SpaceX Starlink launch slated for May 9 could drive a late surge, while quieter periods without political firestorms or Neuralink reveals favor the lower bin; watch for breaking news as the key swing factor in this skin-in-the-game crowd wisdom.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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