Skip to main content
icon for U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
Politics·Mencho

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?

icon for U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
Politics·Mencho

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?

Apr 30

Apr 30

$124,573 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$124,573 Vol.

Polymarket

April 30

$63,647 Vol.

37%

June 30

$19,055 Vol.

52%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects low confidence in a U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil before April 30, 2026, due to the absence of confirmed direct participation by U.S. government personnel—such as military, DEA, or CIA agents—in ground raids or kinetic strikes, as required for resolution. Recent catalysts include April 29 DOJ indictments of Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine Mexican officials for aiding the Sinaloa Cartel, escalating bilateral tensions amid Mexico's demands for evidence. An April 19 Chihuahua meth lab raid saw two CIA officers die in a post-operation crash, but their roles appear advisory. Ongoing Operation Southern Spear maritime interdictions by SOUTHCOM target cartel vessels at sea but fall outside "foreign soil" criteria. March's Shield of the Americas coalition spurred Ecuador joint actions, yet U.S. involvement was limited to intelligence support. Upcoming 2026 World Cup security deadlines in Mexico could prompt escalation, with June 30 probabilities higher amid Trump administration pressures.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.

Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Volume
$124,573
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 2:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

Disputed

Outcome proposal

Final dispute

Final

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects low confidence in a U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil before April 30, 2026, due to the absence of confirmed direct participation by U.S. government personnel—such as military, DEA, or CIA agents—in ground raids or kinetic strikes, as required for resolution. Recent catalysts include April 29 DOJ indictments of Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine Mexican officials for aiding the Sinaloa Cartel, escalating bilateral tensions amid Mexico's demands for evidence. An April 19 Chihuahua meth lab raid saw two CIA officers die in a post-operation crash, but their roles appear advisory. Ongoing Operation Southern Spear maritime interdictions by SOUTHCOM target cartel vessels at sea but fall outside "foreign soil" criteria. March's Shield of the Americas coalition spurred Ecuador joint actions, yet U.S. involvement was limited to intelligence support. Upcoming 2026 World Cup security deadlines in Mexico could prompt escalation, with June 30 probabilities higher amid Trump administration pressures.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.

Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Volume
$124,573
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 2:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

Disputed

Outcome proposal

Final dispute

Final

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...? " is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30" at 52%, followed by "April 30" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...? " has generated $124.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...? ," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...? " is "June 30" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 30" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...? " define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.