Skip to main content
icon for Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner

icon for Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner

Michele Tafoya 78%

Adam Schwarze 11.1%

Mike Ruoho 3.4%

Royce White 3.4%

Polymarket

$79,969 Vol.

Michele Tafoya 78%

Adam Schwarze 11.1%

Mike Ruoho 3.4%

Royce White 3.4%

Polymarket

$79,969 Vol.

Michele Tafoya

$3,093 Vol.

78%

Adam Schwarze

$5,082 Vol.

11%

Mike Ruoho

$970 Vol.

3%

Royce White

$31,097 Vol.

3%

Julia Coleman

$4,397 Vol.

3%

David Hann

$22,026 Vol.

2%

Kristin Robbins

$1,939 Vol.

2%

Alycia Gruenhagen

$4,721 Vol.

1%

Tom Weiler

$1,878 Vol.

1%

Christopher Brooks

$1,311 Vol.

1%

Jim Nash

$2,297 Vol.

<1%

Raymond Petersen

$1,158 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Michele Tafoya leads trader consensus at 78% implied probability to win the Minnesota Republican U.S. Senate primary on August 11, driven by her early dominance in GOP polling and fundraising. A February NRSC survey showed her 30-point advantage among Republicans, reinforced by Q1 reports of $2.04 million raised—surpassing all rivals combined—with $1.85 million cash on hand for a fragmented 12-candidate field. Recent April fundraising disclosures and a 76% Senate District 57 straw poll win underscore her momentum, despite grassroots pushback favoring Adam Schwarze (11%) in convention delegate races. Rivals' attacks during an April 7 debate highlight her establishment NRSC backing as a key edge ahead of the state convention endorsement process.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota.

If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$79,969
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 3:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Michele Tafoya leads trader consensus at 78% implied probability to win the Minnesota Republican U.S. Senate primary on August 11, driven by her early dominance in GOP polling and fundraising. A February NRSC survey showed her 30-point advantage among Republicans, reinforced by Q1 reports of $2.04 million raised—surpassing all rivals combined—with $1.85 million cash on hand for a fragmented 12-candidate field. Recent April fundraising disclosures and a 76% Senate District 57 straw poll win underscore her momentum, despite grassroots pushback favoring Adam Schwarze (11%) in convention delegate races. Rivals' attacks during an April 7 debate highlight her establishment NRSC backing as a key edge ahead of the state convention endorsement process.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota.

If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$79,969
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 3:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Related

icon for Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

24%
icon for Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?

Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?

44%
icon for 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

49%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Michele Tafoya" at 78%, followed by "Adam Schwarze" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 78¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $80K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Michele Tafoya" at 78%, meaning the market assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Adam Schwarze" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.