Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a summer 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 40.5% implied probability, driven by the record-low winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15—tying the satellite-era lowest per NSIDC data—and persistently low extents through late April, signaling thin ice vulnerable to melt. Low sea ice volume and thickness, as indicated by PIOMAS reanalysis, further precondition the region for rapid summer decline amid forecasts of emerging El Niño conditions (60-80% chance per NOAA CPC by June-August), which historically amplify atmospheric warming over the Arctic. Model consensus remains uncertain this early, with initial Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks expected in May-June to refine probabilities ahead of the typical September minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
<4m sq km 38%
4.0-4.2m sq km 22.6%
4.4-4.6m sq km 18.4%
4.6-4.8m sq km 11%
$33,853 Vol.
$33,853 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
38%
4.0-4.2m sq km
23%
4.2-4.4m sq km
18%
4.4-4.6m sq km
19%
4.6-4.8m sq km
11%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
6%
<4m sq km 38%
4.0-4.2m sq km 22.6%
4.4-4.6m sq km 18.4%
4.6-4.8m sq km 11%
$33,853 Vol.
$33,853 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$24,528 Vol.
38%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$3,073 Vol.
23%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$1,025 Vol.
18%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$1,088 Vol.
19%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$2,220 Vol.
11%
4.8-5m sq km
$917 Vol.
2%
5m+ sq km
$1,003 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a summer 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 40.5% implied probability, driven by the record-low winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15—tying the satellite-era lowest per NSIDC data—and persistently low extents through late April, signaling thin ice vulnerable to melt. Low sea ice volume and thickness, as indicated by PIOMAS reanalysis, further precondition the region for rapid summer decline amid forecasts of emerging El Niño conditions (60-80% chance per NOAA CPC by June-August), which historically amplify atmospheric warming over the Arctic. Model consensus remains uncertain this early, with initial Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks expected in May-June to refine probabilities ahead of the typical September minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$33,853End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a summer 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 40.5% implied probability, driven by the record-low winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15—tying the satellite-era lowest per NSIDC data—and persistently low extents through late April, signaling thin ice vulnerable to melt. Low sea ice volume and thickness, as indicated by PIOMAS reanalysis, further precondition the region for rapid summer decline amid forecasts of emerging El Niño conditions (60-80% chance per NOAA CPC by June-August), which historically amplify atmospheric warming over the Arctic. Model consensus remains uncertain this early, with initial Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks expected in May-June to refine probabilities ahead of the typical September minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$33,853End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a summer 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 40.5% implied probability, driven by the record-low winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15—tying the satellite-era lowest per NSIDC data—and persistently low extents through late April, signaling thin ice vulnerable to melt. Low sea ice volume and thickness, as indicated by PIOMAS reanalysis, further precondition the region for rapid summer decline amid forecasts of emerging El Niño conditions (60-80% chance per NOAA CPC by June-August), which historically amplify atmospheric warming over the Arctic. Model consensus remains uncertain this early, with initial Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks expected in May-June to refine probabilities ahead of the typical September minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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