Trader consensus assigns a 99.6% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 10°C in Shanghai on April 30, driven by strong alignment in global forecast models including ECMWF, GFS, and UK Met Office guidance predicting a nighttime minimum around 10°C under cloudy skies. This positioning stems from a persistent East Asian trough funneling cool air masses into eastern China throughout late April, with April 29 observations logging an overnight low near 11°C consistent with seasonal analogs for radiative cooling limited by cloud cover. The China Meteorological Administration's midday bulletin forecasts a 12°C minimum amid maximums near 25°C, but ensemble model runs favor 10°C based on current upper-air patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected sky clearing for sub-10°C cooling or abrupt warm advection from southern flow, though wind shear and moisture profiles make shifts unlikely; evening soundings and hourly airport observations will provide final clarity before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on April 30?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on April 30?
10°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$10,935 Vol.
$10,935 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
100%
10°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$10,935 Vol.
$10,935 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
5°C or below
$212 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$609 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$420 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$580 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$910 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$3,623 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 99.6% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 10°C in Shanghai on April 30, driven by strong alignment in global forecast models including ECMWF, GFS, and UK Met Office guidance predicting a nighttime minimum around 10°C under cloudy skies. This positioning stems from a persistent East Asian trough funneling cool air masses into eastern China throughout late April, with April 29 observations logging an overnight low near 11°C consistent with seasonal analogs for radiative cooling limited by cloud cover. The China Meteorological Administration's midday bulletin forecasts a 12°C minimum amid maximums near 25°C, but ensemble model runs favor 10°C based on current upper-air patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected sky clearing for sub-10°C cooling or abrupt warm advection from southern flow, though wind shear and moisture profiles make shifts unlikely; evening soundings and hourly airport observations will provide final clarity before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$10,935End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 99.6% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 10°C in Shanghai on April 30, driven by strong alignment in global forecast models including ECMWF, GFS, and UK Met Office guidance predicting a nighttime minimum around 10°C under cloudy skies. This positioning stems from a persistent East Asian trough funneling cool air masses into eastern China throughout late April, with April 29 observations logging an overnight low near 11°C consistent with seasonal analogs for radiative cooling limited by cloud cover. The China Meteorological Administration's midday bulletin forecasts a 12°C minimum amid maximums near 25°C, but ensemble model runs favor 10°C based on current upper-air patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected sky clearing for sub-10°C cooling or abrupt warm advection from southern flow, though wind shear and moisture profiles make shifts unlikely; evening soundings and hourly airport observations will provide final clarity before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,935End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns a 99.6% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 10°C in Shanghai on April 30, driven by strong alignment in global forecast models including ECMWF, GFS, and UK Met Office guidance predicting a nighttime minimum around 10°C under cloudy skies. This positioning stems from a persistent East Asian trough funneling cool air masses into eastern China throughout late April, with April 29 observations logging an overnight low near 11°C consistent with seasonal analogs for radiative cooling limited by cloud cover. The China Meteorological Administration's midday bulletin forecasts a 12°C minimum amid maximums near 25°C, but ensemble model runs favor 10°C based on current upper-air patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected sky clearing for sub-10°C cooling or abrupt warm advection from southern flow, though wind shear and moisture profiles make shifts unlikely; evening soundings and hourly airport observations will provide final clarity before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions