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icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?

icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?

Apr 30

May 1

May 2

Apr 30

May 1

May 2

22°C 66%

21°C 58%

20°C 10%

19°C <1%

Polymarket
NEW

22°C 66%

21°C 58%

20°C 10%

19°C <1%

Polymarket
NEW

16°C or below

$601 Vol.

1%

17°C

$618 Vol.

<1%

18°C

$146 Vol.

1%

19°C

$1,564 Vol.

1%

20°C

$266 Vol.

10%

21°C

$50 Vol.

40%

22°C

$33 Vol.

45%

23°C

$209 Vol.

<1%

24°C

$1,503 Vol.

<1%

25°C

$292 Vol.

<1%

26°C or higher

$809 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated April 30 at 23:20 HKT, projects a May 1 temperature range of 22–25°C under mainly cloudy conditions with 70–90% humidity, east-northeast winds force 4, and isolated morning/night rain patches, centering trader consensus around a 22°C low at 44.5% implied probability versus 21°C at 39%. High humidity and persistent cloud cover—driven by a Guangdong cloud band—limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while moderate winds mix the boundary layer, but slight clearing or trough-induced cooling ahead of the weekend cold front could dip to 21°C. Model consensus reflects this tight uncertainty, with historical May lows averaging 23°C amid normal-to-above-normal seasonal temperatures; watch HKO's next local forecast update for refinements.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,220
End Date
May 1, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated April 30 at 23:20 HKT, projects a May 1 temperature range of 22–25°C under mainly cloudy conditions with 70–90% humidity, east-northeast winds force 4, and isolated morning/night rain patches, centering trader consensus around a 22°C low at 44.5% implied probability versus 21°C at 39%. High humidity and persistent cloud cover—driven by a Guangdong cloud band—limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while moderate winds mix the boundary layer, but slight clearing or trough-induced cooling ahead of the weekend cold front could dip to 21°C. Model consensus reflects this tight uncertainty, with historical May lows averaging 23°C amid normal-to-above-normal seasonal temperatures; watch HKO's next local forecast update for refinements.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,220
End Date
May 1, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "22°C" at 45%, followed by "21°C" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?" is "22°C" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "21°C" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.