Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore holds an 81% implied probability as the Republican primary winner for Alabama's open U.S. Senate seat, driven by his consistent lead in late-April polling averages like Decision Desk HQ's 31%-19%-16% edge over Attorney General Steve Marshall and newcomer Jared Hudson, bolstered by superior Q1 fundraising—nearly $750,000 raised—and heavy outside spending from Club for Growth affiliates and crypto groups. Hudson's 16% share reflects rising outsider momentum from strong Q1 hauls and a Jefferson County GOP straw poll win last week, while Marshall fades amid attacks on his prosecutorial record. No candidate polls at 50%+, signaling a likely June 16 runoff after the May 19 primary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBarry Moore 81%
Jared Hudson 16.0%
Steve Marshall 5.1%
Morgan Murphy <1%
$67,374 Vol.
$67,374 Vol.
Barry Moore
81%
Jared Hudson
16%
Steve Marshall
5%
Morgan Murphy
<1%
Rodney Walker
<1%
Barry Moore 81%
Jared Hudson 16.0%
Steve Marshall 5.1%
Morgan Murphy <1%
$67,374 Vol.
$67,374 Vol.
Barry Moore
81%
Jared Hudson
16%
Steve Marshall
5%
Morgan Murphy
<1%
Rodney Walker
<1%
If no 2026 Alabama Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Alabama Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 1:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Alabama Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Alabama Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore holds an 81% implied probability as the Republican primary winner for Alabama's open U.S. Senate seat, driven by his consistent lead in late-April polling averages like Decision Desk HQ's 31%-19%-16% edge over Attorney General Steve Marshall and newcomer Jared Hudson, bolstered by superior Q1 fundraising—nearly $750,000 raised—and heavy outside spending from Club for Growth affiliates and crypto groups. Hudson's 16% share reflects rising outsider momentum from strong Q1 hauls and a Jefferson County GOP straw poll win last week, while Marshall fades amid attacks on his prosecutorial record. No candidate polls at 50%+, signaling a likely June 16 runoff after the May 19 primary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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