An exceptionally active start to the 2026 tornado season, with over 500 preliminary tornadoes confirmed through April per NOAA's Storm Prediction Center—80% above the January–March historical average—has driven trader consensus toward 1250+ tornadoes at 86% implied probability. Major outbreaks, including the April 17–18 Midwest event and the April 23–28 sequence featuring an EF4 tornado near Enid, Oklahoma, reflect persistent clashes of warm, moist Gulf air with potent upper-level jet stream dynamics, yielding high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and wind shear favorable for tornadogenesis. Forecasts from NOAA and private meteorologists anticipate continued severe weather through peak May–June months amid ENSO-neutral conditions, though model uncertainty persists; updated weekly SPC reports will refine seasonal totals against the long-term average of about 1,225 tornadoes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 86%
1200–1249 8.9%
1150–1199 5.2%
1050–1099 2.3%
$71,073 Vol.
$71,073 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
2%
1100–1149
2%
1150–1199
8%
1200–1249
9%
1250+
86%
1250+ 86%
1200–1249 8.9%
1150–1199 5.2%
1050–1099 2.3%
$71,073 Vol.
$71,073 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$22,324 Vol.
1%
950–999
$2,679 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$2,221 Vol.
<1%
1050–1099
$7,869 Vol.
2%
1100–1149
$1,955 Vol.
2%
1150–1199
$2,402 Vol.
8%
1200–1249
$15,069 Vol.
9%
1250+
$16,553 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.An exceptionally active start to the 2026 tornado season, with over 500 preliminary tornadoes confirmed through April per NOAA's Storm Prediction Center—80% above the January–March historical average—has driven trader consensus toward 1250+ tornadoes at 86% implied probability. Major outbreaks, including the April 17–18 Midwest event and the April 23–28 sequence featuring an EF4 tornado near Enid, Oklahoma, reflect persistent clashes of warm, moist Gulf air with potent upper-level jet stream dynamics, yielding high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and wind shear favorable for tornadogenesis. Forecasts from NOAA and private meteorologists anticipate continued severe weather through peak May–June months amid ENSO-neutral conditions, though model uncertainty persists; updated weekly SPC reports will refine seasonal totals against the long-term average of about 1,225 tornadoes.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$71,073End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.An exceptionally active start to the 2026 tornado season, with over 500 preliminary tornadoes confirmed through April per NOAA's Storm Prediction Center—80% above the January–March historical average—has driven trader consensus toward 1250+ tornadoes at 86% implied probability. Major outbreaks, including the April 17–18 Midwest event and the April 23–28 sequence featuring an EF4 tornado near Enid, Oklahoma, reflect persistent clashes of warm, moist Gulf air with potent upper-level jet stream dynamics, yielding high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and wind shear favorable for tornadogenesis. Forecasts from NOAA and private meteorologists anticipate continued severe weather through peak May–June months amid ENSO-neutral conditions, though model uncertainty persists; updated weekly SPC reports will refine seasonal totals against the long-term average of about 1,225 tornadoes.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$71,073End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...An exceptionally active start to the 2026 tornado season, with over 500 preliminary tornadoes confirmed through April per NOAA's Storm Prediction Center—80% above the January–March historical average—has driven trader consensus toward 1250+ tornadoes at 86% implied probability. Major outbreaks, including the April 17–18 Midwest event and the April 23–28 sequence featuring an EF4 tornado near Enid, Oklahoma, reflect persistent clashes of warm, moist Gulf air with potent upper-level jet stream dynamics, yielding high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and wind shear favorable for tornadogenesis. Forecasts from NOAA and private meteorologists anticipate continued severe weather through peak May–June months amid ENSO-neutral conditions, though model uncertainty persists; updated weekly SPC reports will refine seasonal totals against the long-term average of about 1,225 tornadoes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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