Latest ensemble forecasts from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS indicate Paris highs clustering around 24-26°C on May 1 under a high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, subsidence, and mild southerly flow, well above the 18°C seasonal average. This setup follows a mild late-April pattern with temperatures consistently in the low 20s°C, driving trader consensus toward 25°C (41.5% implied probability) as the peak, though GFS runs occasionally push toward 26°C while ECMWF leans slightly cooler at 24°C amid minor cloud variability. Resolution hinges on official Paris-Montsouris station data; watch overnight model updates for shifts in peak afternoon heating potential.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on May 1?
Highest temperature in Paris on May 1?
25°C 42%
26°C 34%
24°C 22%
23°C 5.1%
NEW
$32,138 Vol.
NEW
$32,138 Vol.
May 1, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
5%
24°C
22%
25°C
42%
26°C
34%
27°C
2%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 42%
26°C 34%
24°C 22%
23°C 5.1%
NEW
$32,138 Vol.
NEW
$32,138 Vol.
May 1, 2026
20°C or below
$1,660 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,232 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$3,234 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$4,415 Vol.
5%
24°C
$4,194 Vol.
22%
25°C
$4,271 Vol.
42%
26°C
$3,362 Vol.
34%
27°C
$3,312 Vol.
2%
28°C
$4,697 Vol.
1%
29°C
$1,962 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$223 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS indicate Paris highs clustering around 24-26°C on May 1 under a high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, subsidence, and mild southerly flow, well above the 18°C seasonal average. This setup follows a mild late-April pattern with temperatures consistently in the low 20s°C, driving trader consensus toward 25°C (41.5% implied probability) as the peak, though GFS runs occasionally push toward 26°C while ECMWF leans slightly cooler at 24°C amid minor cloud variability. Resolution hinges on official Paris-Montsouris station data; watch overnight model updates for shifts in peak afternoon heating potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$32,138End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS indicate Paris highs clustering around 24-26°C on May 1 under a high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, subsidence, and mild southerly flow, well above the 18°C seasonal average. This setup follows a mild late-April pattern with temperatures consistently in the low 20s°C, driving trader consensus toward 25°C (41.5% implied probability) as the peak, though GFS runs occasionally push toward 26°C while ECMWF leans slightly cooler at 24°C amid minor cloud variability. Resolution hinges on official Paris-Montsouris station data; watch overnight model updates for shifts in peak afternoon heating potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$32,138End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS indicate Paris highs clustering around 24-26°C on May 1 under a high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, subsidence, and mild southerly flow, well above the 18°C seasonal average. This setup follows a mild late-April pattern with temperatures consistently in the low 20s°C, driving trader consensus toward 25°C (41.5% implied probability) as the peak, though GFS runs occasionally push toward 26°C while ECMWF leans slightly cooler at 24°C amid minor cloud variability. Resolution hinges on official Paris-Montsouris station data; watch overnight model updates for shifts in peak afternoon heating potential.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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