As of April 30, 2026, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has cataloged five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide this year—most recently a M7.4 offshore Miyako, Japan on April 20, following a M7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1, and earlier events in Vanuatu, Tonga, and Malaysia—aligning closely with the historical global average of about 15 such events annually along active subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Trader consensus clusters around 14–16 (30%) and 17–19 (25%) due to Poisson-distributed seismicity, where clusters from stress transfer can elevate totals while quiet periods on major faults pull them lower; 11–13 (22%) reflects potential lulls, with higher bins like 20+ (13%) hinging on aftershock sequences or unreleased strain. USGS real-time monitoring will refine counts, but inherent unpredictability keeps leading outcomes tightly matched.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
14–16 30%
17–19 25%
11–13 23%
20+ 13.1%
$1,303,521 Vol.
$1,303,521 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5–7
2%
8–10
8%
11–13
23%
14–16
30%
17–19
25%
20+
13%
14–16 30%
17–19 25%
11–13 23%
20+ 13.1%
$1,303,521 Vol.
$1,303,521 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5–7
$71,185 Vol.
2%
8–10
$128,138 Vol.
8%
11–13
$410,286 Vol.
23%
14–16
$183,205 Vol.
30%
17–19
$206,122 Vol.
25%
20+
$61,945 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.As of April 30, 2026, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has cataloged five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide this year—most recently a M7.4 offshore Miyako, Japan on April 20, following a M7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1, and earlier events in Vanuatu, Tonga, and Malaysia—aligning closely with the historical global average of about 15 such events annually along active subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Trader consensus clusters around 14–16 (30%) and 17–19 (25%) due to Poisson-distributed seismicity, where clusters from stress transfer can elevate totals while quiet periods on major faults pull them lower; 11–13 (22%) reflects potential lulls, with higher bins like 20+ (13%) hinging on aftershock sequences or unreleased strain. USGS real-time monitoring will refine counts, but inherent unpredictability keeps leading outcomes tightly matched.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,303,521End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.As of April 30, 2026, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has cataloged five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide this year—most recently a M7.4 offshore Miyako, Japan on April 20, following a M7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1, and earlier events in Vanuatu, Tonga, and Malaysia—aligning closely with the historical global average of about 15 such events annually along active subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Trader consensus clusters around 14–16 (30%) and 17–19 (25%) due to Poisson-distributed seismicity, where clusters from stress transfer can elevate totals while quiet periods on major faults pull them lower; 11–13 (22%) reflects potential lulls, with higher bins like 20+ (13%) hinging on aftershock sequences or unreleased strain. USGS real-time monitoring will refine counts, but inherent unpredictability keeps leading outcomes tightly matched.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,303,521End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of April 30, 2026, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has cataloged five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide this year—most recently a M7.4 offshore Miyako, Japan on April 20, following a M7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1, and earlier events in Vanuatu, Tonga, and Malaysia—aligning closely with the historical global average of about 15 such events annually along active subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Trader consensus clusters around 14–16 (30%) and 17–19 (25%) due to Poisson-distributed seismicity, where clusters from stress transfer can elevate totals while quiet periods on major faults pull them lower; 11–13 (22%) reflects potential lulls, with higher bins like 20+ (13%) hinging on aftershock sequences or unreleased strain. USGS real-time monitoring will refine counts, but inherent unpredictability keeps leading outcomes tightly matched.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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