Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 63% probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 2, driven primarily by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast update on April 30, projecting a daytime high of 27°C amid sunny intervals and cloudy periods following rain clearance on May 1. This above-normal outlook—early May climatological highs average 21–24°C based on historical JMA data—reflects building high-pressure influence after recent wet conditions, with model consensus from short-range guidance supporting mild warming. The 30% odds on exactly 24°C account for potential cloud cover muting peaks, while lower outcomes reflect rare cooler scenarios. Traders await JMA's next advisory around midday May 1 for refinements, as 48-hour forecasts carry moderate uncertainty from evolving atmospheric patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 2?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 2?
25°C or higher 63%
24°C 31%
23°C 5%
22°C 1.7%
NEW
$19,087 Vol.
NEW
$19,087 Vol.
May 2, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
5%
24°C
31%
25°C or higher
63%
25°C or higher 63%
24°C 31%
23°C 5%
22°C 1.7%
NEW
$19,087 Vol.
NEW
$19,087 Vol.
May 2, 2026
15°C or below
$3,841 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$3,125 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,609 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,760 Vol.
1%
19°C
$940 Vol.
1%
20°C
$1,601 Vol.
1%
21°C
$1,090 Vol.
1%
22°C
$2,431 Vol.
2%
23°C
$537 Vol.
5%
24°C
$1,085 Vol.
31%
25°C or higher
$1,388 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 63% probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 2, driven primarily by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast update on April 30, projecting a daytime high of 27°C amid sunny intervals and cloudy periods following rain clearance on May 1. This above-normal outlook—early May climatological highs average 21–24°C based on historical JMA data—reflects building high-pressure influence after recent wet conditions, with model consensus from short-range guidance supporting mild warming. The 30% odds on exactly 24°C account for potential cloud cover muting peaks, while lower outcomes reflect rare cooler scenarios. Traders await JMA's next advisory around midday May 1 for refinements, as 48-hour forecasts carry moderate uncertainty from evolving atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$19,087End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 63% probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 2, driven primarily by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast update on April 30, projecting a daytime high of 27°C amid sunny intervals and cloudy periods following rain clearance on May 1. This above-normal outlook—early May climatological highs average 21–24°C based on historical JMA data—reflects building high-pressure influence after recent wet conditions, with model consensus from short-range guidance supporting mild warming. The 30% odds on exactly 24°C account for potential cloud cover muting peaks, while lower outcomes reflect rare cooler scenarios. Traders await JMA's next advisory around midday May 1 for refinements, as 48-hour forecasts carry moderate uncertainty from evolving atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$19,087End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 63% probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 2, driven primarily by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast update on April 30, projecting a daytime high of 27°C amid sunny intervals and cloudy periods following rain clearance on May 1. This above-normal outlook—early May climatological highs average 21–24°C based on historical JMA data—reflects building high-pressure influence after recent wet conditions, with model consensus from short-range guidance supporting mild warming. The 30% odds on exactly 24°C account for potential cloud cover muting peaks, while lower outcomes reflect rare cooler scenarios. Traders await JMA's next advisory around midday May 1 for refinements, as 48-hour forecasts carry moderate uncertainty from evolving atmospheric patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions