Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Tokyo's May 1 high temperature, with implied probabilities clustering around 19–21°C due to ensemble spread from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ECMWF guidance. Early May climatology shows average highs near 20°C (historical range 17–24°C), influenced by variable southerly winds, Pacific sea surface temperatures, and potential low-level cloudiness from lingering spring fronts—no major shifts like unusual blocking highs or cold air intrusions noted in the past 48 hours' updates. Key differentiators include model disagreements on afternoon insolation and urban heat effects; final JMA advisories expected later today could refine odds before tomorrow's observations resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 1?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 1?
21°C or higher 42.1%
20°C 31%
19°C 25%
18°C 5.6%
NEW
$28,106 Vol.
NEW
$28,106 Vol.
May 1, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
6%
19°C
25%
20°C
31%
21°C or higher
42%
21°C or higher 42.1%
20°C 31%
19°C 25%
18°C 5.6%
NEW
$28,106 Vol.
NEW
$28,106 Vol.
May 1, 2026
11°C or below
$1,585 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$541 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$408 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,968 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,170 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$2,908 Vol.
1%
17°C
$4,319 Vol.
1%
18°C
$6,179 Vol.
6%
19°C
$2,990 Vol.
25%
20°C
$2,129 Vol.
31%
21°C or higher
$4,655 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Tokyo's May 1 high temperature, with implied probabilities clustering around 19–21°C due to ensemble spread from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ECMWF guidance. Early May climatology shows average highs near 20°C (historical range 17–24°C), influenced by variable southerly winds, Pacific sea surface temperatures, and potential low-level cloudiness from lingering spring fronts—no major shifts like unusual blocking highs or cold air intrusions noted in the past 48 hours' updates. Key differentiators include model disagreements on afternoon insolation and urban heat effects; final JMA advisories expected later today could refine odds before tomorrow's observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$28,106End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Tokyo's May 1 high temperature, with implied probabilities clustering around 19–21°C due to ensemble spread from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ECMWF guidance. Early May climatology shows average highs near 20°C (historical range 17–24°C), influenced by variable southerly winds, Pacific sea surface temperatures, and potential low-level cloudiness from lingering spring fronts—no major shifts like unusual blocking highs or cold air intrusions noted in the past 48 hours' updates. Key differentiators include model disagreements on afternoon insolation and urban heat effects; final JMA advisories expected later today could refine odds before tomorrow's observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,106End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Tokyo's May 1 high temperature, with implied probabilities clustering around 19–21°C due to ensemble spread from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ECMWF guidance. Early May climatology shows average highs near 20°C (historical range 17–24°C), influenced by variable southerly winds, Pacific sea surface temperatures, and potential low-level cloudiness from lingering spring fronts—no major shifts like unusual blocking highs or cold air intrusions noted in the past 48 hours' updates. Key differentiators include model disagreements on afternoon insolation and urban heat effects; final JMA advisories expected later today could refine odds before tomorrow's observations resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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