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Highest temperature in NYC on May 2?

icon for Highest temperature in NYC on May 2?

Highest temperature in NYC on May 2?

Apr 30

May 1

May 2

Apr 30

May 1

May 2

58-59°F 33%

60-61°F 31%

62-63°F 17.9%

56-57°F 14%

Polymarket
NEW

$13,637 Vol.

58-59°F 33%

60-61°F 31%

62-63°F 17.9%

56-57°F 14%

Polymarket
NEW

$13,637 Vol.

51°F or below

$7,165 Vol.

1%

52-53°F

$920 Vol.

1%

54-55°F

$502 Vol.

5%

56-57°F

$702 Vol.

14%

58-59°F

$707 Vol.

33%

60-61°F

$402 Vol.

31%

62-63°F

$392 Vol.

18%

64-65°F

$387 Vol.

4%

66-67°F

$1,099 Vol.

1%

68-69°F

$1,052 Vol.

<1%

70°F or higher

$432 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance, blending GFS and NAM model runs updated overnight, projects a high near 60°F at LaGuardia Airport (KLGA)—the market's resolution station—on May 2 under clear skies and light northwest winds following a cool front. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 58-61°F (64.5% combined implied probability) due to low-level cool air advection and potential morning cloud remnants limiting diurnal heating, with 62-63°F viable if solar insolation peaks unimpeded. Ensemble spread of 2-3°F reflects uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and sea breeze timing; historical early-May highs average 65°F, but this trough-induced cool airmass caps potential. Monitor 12Z model refresh and evening NWS updates for refinements ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,637
End Date
May 2, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance, blending GFS and NAM model runs updated overnight, projects a high near 60°F at LaGuardia Airport (KLGA)—the market's resolution station—on May 2 under clear skies and light northwest winds following a cool front. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 58-61°F (64.5% combined implied probability) due to low-level cool air advection and potential morning cloud remnants limiting diurnal heating, with 62-63°F viable if solar insolation peaks unimpeded. Ensemble spread of 2-3°F reflects uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and sea breeze timing; historical early-May highs average 65°F, but this trough-induced cool airmass caps potential. Monitor 12Z model refresh and evening NWS updates for refinements ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,637
End Date
May 2, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in NYC on May 2?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "58-59°F" at 33%, followed by "60-61°F" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in NYC on May 2?" has generated $13.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in NYC on May 2?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in NYC on May 2?" is "58-59°F" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "60-61°F" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in NYC on May 2?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.