Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a tight clustering around 24-25°C for Madrid's highest temperature on May 1, fueling trader consensus with those outcomes leading at 40% and 37% implied probabilities amid model spreads of 1-2°C. This reflects a persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia promoting warm southerly advection, abundant sunshine for peak insolation, and preconditioned soil warming from a dry, mild April exceeding early-May climatological averages near 22°C. Key differentiators include potential afternoon cumulus clouds capping peaks below 26°C versus urban heat island effects and light winds boosting to 25°C; inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists. Monitor AEMET's final bulletins and 00Z model runs, with Barajas Airport observations resolving the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on May 1?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 1?
25°C 37%
24°C 36%
26°C 13%
23°C 12%
NEW
$20,535 Vol.
NEW
$20,535 Vol.
May 1, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
12%
24°C
36%
25°C
37%
26°C
13%
27°C
2%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 37%
24°C 36%
26°C 13%
23°C 12%
NEW
$20,535 Vol.
NEW
$20,535 Vol.
May 1, 2026
19°C or below
$1,127 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$708 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,535 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,593 Vol.
1%
23°C
$2,585 Vol.
12%
24°C
$3,059 Vol.
36%
25°C
$2,091 Vol.
37%
26°C
$1,931 Vol.
13%
27°C
$742 Vol.
2%
28°C
$1,172 Vol.
1%
29°C or higher
$1,102 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a tight clustering around 24-25°C for Madrid's highest temperature on May 1, fueling trader consensus with those outcomes leading at 40% and 37% implied probabilities amid model spreads of 1-2°C. This reflects a persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia promoting warm southerly advection, abundant sunshine for peak insolation, and preconditioned soil warming from a dry, mild April exceeding early-May climatological averages near 22°C. Key differentiators include potential afternoon cumulus clouds capping peaks below 26°C versus urban heat island effects and light winds boosting to 25°C; inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists. Monitor AEMET's final bulletins and 00Z model runs, with Barajas Airport observations resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Volume
$20,535End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a tight clustering around 24-25°C for Madrid's highest temperature on May 1, fueling trader consensus with those outcomes leading at 40% and 37% implied probabilities amid model spreads of 1-2°C. This reflects a persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia promoting warm southerly advection, abundant sunshine for peak insolation, and preconditioned soil warming from a dry, mild April exceeding early-May climatological averages near 22°C. Key differentiators include potential afternoon cumulus clouds capping peaks below 26°C versus urban heat island effects and light winds boosting to 25°C; inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists. Monitor AEMET's final bulletins and 00Z model runs, with Barajas Airport observations resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$20,535End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a tight clustering around 24-25°C for Madrid's highest temperature on May 1, fueling trader consensus with those outcomes leading at 40% and 37% implied probabilities amid model spreads of 1-2°C. This reflects a persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia promoting warm southerly advection, abundant sunshine for peak insolation, and preconditioned soil warming from a dry, mild April exceeding early-May climatological averages near 22°C. Key differentiators include potential afternoon cumulus clouds capping peaks below 26°C versus urban heat island effects and light winds boosting to 25°C; inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists. Monitor AEMET's final bulletins and 00Z model runs, with Barajas Airport observations resolving the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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