Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 58.5% implied probability for Dallas reaching 74°F or higher on May 2, reflecting National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF projecting highs near 75°F under partly cloudy skies. This positioning stems from April 30 observations of overcast conditions and temperatures in the low 60s, with a departing weak shortwave trough and building upper-level ridge expected to boost afternoon heating while lingering mid-level clouds cap peaks slightly below the 79°F climatological normal. NOAA's spring outlook for above-normal temperatures amid persistent drought supports the mild warmup, though model spread introduces uncertainty around 72-73°F (27%). New 12Z model runs and NWS updates will clarify steering patterns and cloud cover impacts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on May 2?
Highest temperature in Dallas on May 2?
74°F or higher 59%
72-73°F 25%
70-71°F 9%
68-69°F 1.1%
NEW
$20,362 Vol.
NEW
$20,362 Vol.
May 2, 2026
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
9%
72-73°F
25%
74°F or higher
59%
74°F or higher 59%
72-73°F 25%
70-71°F 9%
68-69°F 1.1%
NEW
$20,362 Vol.
NEW
$20,362 Vol.
May 2, 2026
55°F or below
$2,770 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$2,272 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$2,982 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$1,939 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$1,238 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$994 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$2,313 Vol.
1%
68-69°F
$1,747 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$669 Vol.
9%
72-73°F
$574 Vol.
25%
74°F or higher
$2,862 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 58.5% implied probability for Dallas reaching 74°F or higher on May 2, reflecting National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF projecting highs near 75°F under partly cloudy skies. This positioning stems from April 30 observations of overcast conditions and temperatures in the low 60s, with a departing weak shortwave trough and building upper-level ridge expected to boost afternoon heating while lingering mid-level clouds cap peaks slightly below the 79°F climatological normal. NOAA's spring outlook for above-normal temperatures amid persistent drought supports the mild warmup, though model spread introduces uncertainty around 72-73°F (27%). New 12Z model runs and NWS updates will clarify steering patterns and cloud cover impacts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$20,362End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 58.5% implied probability for Dallas reaching 74°F or higher on May 2, reflecting National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF projecting highs near 75°F under partly cloudy skies. This positioning stems from April 30 observations of overcast conditions and temperatures in the low 60s, with a departing weak shortwave trough and building upper-level ridge expected to boost afternoon heating while lingering mid-level clouds cap peaks slightly below the 79°F climatological normal. NOAA's spring outlook for above-normal temperatures amid persistent drought supports the mild warmup, though model spread introduces uncertainty around 72-73°F (27%). New 12Z model runs and NWS updates will clarify steering patterns and cloud cover impacts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$20,362End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 58.5% implied probability for Dallas reaching 74°F or higher on May 2, reflecting National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF projecting highs near 75°F under partly cloudy skies. This positioning stems from April 30 observations of overcast conditions and temperatures in the low 60s, with a departing weak shortwave trough and building upper-level ridge expected to boost afternoon heating while lingering mid-level clouds cap peaks slightly below the 79°F climatological normal. NOAA's spring outlook for above-normal temperatures amid persistent drought supports the mild warmup, though model spread introduces uncertainty around 72-73°F (27%). New 12Z model runs and NWS updates will clarify steering patterns and cloud cover impacts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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