Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 51°F or below in Chicago on May 1 (91.5% implied probability), aligned with the National Weather Service forecast projecting a maximum near 49°F at O'Hare International Airport, the official site. This positioning stems from persistent northerly winds—10 mph from the north-northwest—ad vecting cool Canadian air under a high-pressure ridge, following a cold front that cooled late April temperatures to the upper 40s to mid-50s. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models shows tight agreement on limited daytime heating amid partly cloudy skies, well below the 65°F climatological normal. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly clear skies boosting solar insolation to push into the low 50s or a late wind shift, though upper-air patterns suggest low risk; watch evening NWS updates and morning soundings for refinements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on May 1?
Highest temperature in Chicago on May 1?
51°F or below 92%
52-53°F 6%
54-55°F 1.8%
56-57°F 1.0%
NEW
$32,005 Vol.
NEW
$32,005 Vol.
May 1, 2026
51°F or below
92%
52-53°F
6%
54-55°F
2%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70°F or higher
<1%
51°F or below 92%
52-53°F 6%
54-55°F 1.8%
56-57°F 1.0%
NEW
$32,005 Vol.
NEW
$32,005 Vol.
May 1, 2026
51°F or below
$6,181 Vol.
92%
52-53°F
$3,335 Vol.
6%
54-55°F
$3,150 Vol.
2%
56-57°F
$2,341 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$4,179 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$3,195 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$2,467 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$2,738 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$1,835 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$1,987 Vol.
<1%
70°F or higher
$1,743 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 51°F or below in Chicago on May 1 (91.5% implied probability), aligned with the National Weather Service forecast projecting a maximum near 49°F at O'Hare International Airport, the official site. This positioning stems from persistent northerly winds—10 mph from the north-northwest—ad vecting cool Canadian air under a high-pressure ridge, following a cold front that cooled late April temperatures to the upper 40s to mid-50s. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models shows tight agreement on limited daytime heating amid partly cloudy skies, well below the 65°F climatological normal. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly clear skies boosting solar insolation to push into the low 50s or a late wind shift, though upper-air patterns suggest low risk; watch evening NWS updates and morning soundings for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volume
$32,005End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 51°F or below in Chicago on May 1 (91.5% implied probability), aligned with the National Weather Service forecast projecting a maximum near 49°F at O'Hare International Airport, the official site. This positioning stems from persistent northerly winds—10 mph from the north-northwest—ad vecting cool Canadian air under a high-pressure ridge, following a cold front that cooled late April temperatures to the upper 40s to mid-50s. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models shows tight agreement on limited daytime heating amid partly cloudy skies, well below the 65°F climatological normal. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly clear skies boosting solar insolation to push into the low 50s or a late wind shift, though upper-air patterns suggest low risk; watch evening NWS updates and morning soundings for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$32,005End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 51°F or below in Chicago on May 1 (91.5% implied probability), aligned with the National Weather Service forecast projecting a maximum near 49°F at O'Hare International Airport, the official site. This positioning stems from persistent northerly winds—10 mph from the north-northwest—ad vecting cool Canadian air under a high-pressure ridge, following a cold front that cooled late April temperatures to the upper 40s to mid-50s. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models shows tight agreement on limited daytime heating amid partly cloudy skies, well below the 65°F climatological normal. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly clear skies boosting solar insolation to push into the low 50s or a late wind shift, though upper-air patterns suggest low risk; watch evening NWS updates and morning soundings for refinements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions