Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Amsterdam on April 30, driven by tight clustering in the latest ECMWF, GFS, and KNMI HARMONIE model ensembles projecting maxima near 20°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge steering warm continental air from the southeast. Mid-afternoon KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol station recorded 19.1°C amid clear skies, light easterly winds (OZO 4), and high solar insolation, aligning with spring warming trends well above the late-April climatological norm of 13°C. Realistic challenges include sudden convective cloud development curbing further heating to cap at 19°C, or a delayed sea breeze onshore flow; prolonged sunshine could nudge toward 21°C, though model spreads indicate low likelihood as the peak nears this evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on April 30?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on April 30?
20°C 99.4%
21°C 1.3%
22°C <1%
19°C <1%
$95,402 Vol.
$95,402 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
19°C
<1%
20°C
99%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
20°C 99.4%
21°C 1.3%
22°C <1%
19°C <1%
$95,402 Vol.
$95,402 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
19°C
$16,848 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$9,516 Vol.
99%
21°C
$9,580 Vol.
1%
22°C
$11,057 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$7,331 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Amsterdam on April 30, driven by tight clustering in the latest ECMWF, GFS, and KNMI HARMONIE model ensembles projecting maxima near 20°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge steering warm continental air from the southeast. Mid-afternoon KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol station recorded 19.1°C amid clear skies, light easterly winds (OZO 4), and high solar insolation, aligning with spring warming trends well above the late-April climatological norm of 13°C. Realistic challenges include sudden convective cloud development curbing further heating to cap at 19°C, or a delayed sea breeze onshore flow; prolonged sunshine could nudge toward 21°C, though model spreads indicate low likelihood as the peak nears this evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
Volume
$95,402End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Amsterdam on April 30, driven by tight clustering in the latest ECMWF, GFS, and KNMI HARMONIE model ensembles projecting maxima near 20°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge steering warm continental air from the southeast. Mid-afternoon KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol station recorded 19.1°C amid clear skies, light easterly winds (OZO 4), and high solar insolation, aligning with spring warming trends well above the late-April climatological norm of 13°C. Realistic challenges include sudden convective cloud development curbing further heating to cap at 19°C, or a delayed sea breeze onshore flow; prolonged sunshine could nudge toward 21°C, though model spreads indicate low likelihood as the peak nears this evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$95,402End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Amsterdam on April 30, driven by tight clustering in the latest ECMWF, GFS, and KNMI HARMONIE model ensembles projecting maxima near 20°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge steering warm continental air from the southeast. Mid-afternoon KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol station recorded 19.1°C amid clear skies, light easterly winds (OZO 4), and high solar insolation, aligning with spring warming trends well above the late-April climatological norm of 13°C. Realistic challenges include sudden convective cloud development curbing further heating to cap at 19°C, or a delayed sea breeze onshore flow; prolonged sunshine could nudge toward 21°C, though model spreads indicate low likelihood as the peak nears this evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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