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Politics·Primaries

Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner

icon for Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner

Erin Stewart 49%

Ryan Fazio 35%

Betsy McCaughey 10%

Harry Arora 8.0%

Polymarket

$12,639 Vol.

Erin Stewart 49%

Ryan Fazio 35%

Betsy McCaughey 10%

Harry Arora 8.0%

Polymarket

$12,639 Vol.

Erin Stewart

$2,591 Vol.

49%

Ryan Fazio

$4,225 Vol.

35%

Betsy McCaughey

$389 Vol.

10%

Harry Arora

$198 Vol.

10%

Timothy Wilcox

$5,236 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus in the Connecticut Republican gubernatorial primary favors former New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart at 48.5% implied probability, reflecting her proven executive record in a Democratic stronghold, early qualification for public financing, and internal polling showing a lead over rivals. State Sen. Ryan Fazio trails closely at 35%, bolstered by superior net favorability in the February Nutmeg State Poll among likely GOP primary voters and recent attacks on Stewart's credibility. Late April developments, including Stewart's walk-back of a bribery claim from her mayoral tenure and a state probe into New Britain tax office irregularities, have fueled Fazio's momentum and aided Betsy McCaughey's 16% share as an outsider. Lower odds for Harry Arora and Timothy Wilcox stem from limited name recognition. The May GOP state convention, where delegates issue endorsements ahead of the August 11 primary, looms as the next key catalyst.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$12,639
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 9:57 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus in the Connecticut Republican gubernatorial primary favors former New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart at 48.5% implied probability, reflecting her proven executive record in a Democratic stronghold, early qualification for public financing, and internal polling showing a lead over rivals. State Sen. Ryan Fazio trails closely at 35%, bolstered by superior net favorability in the February Nutmeg State Poll among likely GOP primary voters and recent attacks on Stewart's credibility. Late April developments, including Stewart's walk-back of a bribery claim from her mayoral tenure and a state probe into New Britain tax office irregularities, have fueled Fazio's momentum and aided Betsy McCaughey's 16% share as an outsider. Lower odds for Harry Arora and Timothy Wilcox stem from limited name recognition. The May GOP state convention, where delegates issue endorsements ahead of the August 11 primary, looms as the next key catalyst.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$12,639
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 9:57 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Erin Stewart" at 49%, followed by "Ryan Fazio" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner" has generated $12.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Erin Stewart" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ryan Fazio" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.