Trader consensus heavily favors U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds at 83% implied probability to win Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary on August 18, propelled by his dominant polling leads—including 46% in the April 2 Emerson survey and 38% in the late-April Stetson poll—record Q1 fundraising exceeding $22 million, and President Trump's early endorsement consolidating establishment and MAGA support in the open race to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis. Investor James Fishback trails at 11% on momentum from Gen-Z outreach and viral online presence despite single-digit poll shares, while Lt. Gov. Jay Collins sits at 5% buoyed by executive branch visibility amid rumors of a potential exit. Recent polls underscore Donalds' 30-40 point margins over a fragmented field, with undecideds offering limited upset potential barring scandals or new entrants.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFundraising reports show Byron Donalds raising $22.2 million in Q1 2026, solidifying his frontrunner status while Gaetz remains absent from the race
Fundraising reports show Byron Donalds raising $22.2 million in Q1 2026, solidifying his frontrunner status while Gaetz remains absent from the race
Jay Collins fires back at persistent rumors of campaign suspension, calling them "100% bulls" and affirming commitment to race
Jay Collins rises to 5%3%
Collins’ strong public denial of exit rumors helped stabilize his market
Jay Collins cancels Cape Coral meet-and-greet after local store owner refuses to attend, fueling negative campaign optics
Jay Collins dips to 2%3%
The cancellation of a campaign event due to organizer absence and ensuing public dispute hurt Collins’ image and market
Rival candidate Jay Collins spends $4 million on TV ads;
Byron Donalds drops to 84%8%
post‑ad polling shows a slight dip for Donalds, leading to a small
Renewed media focus on Fishback’s legal and financial troubles, including court cases and allegations of dishonesty, further undermining his campaign credibility
James Fishback rises to 11%1%
Renewed media focus on Fishback’s legal and financial troubles, including court cases and allegations of dishonesty, further undermining his campaign credibility
Polymarket data shows Byron Donalds trading at 91¢ (≈91% probability) after the latest Emerson poll (46% support) and a fresh fundraising report, driving the
Byron Donalds jumps to 93%6%
Polymarket data shows Byron Donalds trading at 91¢ (≈91% probability) after the latest Emerson poll (46% support) and a fresh fundraising report, driving the
Viral confrontation on Piers Morgan Uncensored over Fishback’s proposal of a 50% “sin tax” on OnlyFans creators, drawing national attention but mixed reactions
James Fishback rises to 10%2%
Viral confrontation on Piers Morgan Uncensored over Fishback’s proposal of a 50% “sin tax” on OnlyFans creators, drawing national attention but mixed reactions
Donald’s “Public Safety Roundtable” in Melbourne draws extensive media coverage and local law‑enforcement endorsements, boosting his visibility and lifting the market to a new peak
Byron Donalds jumps to 87%7%
Donald’s “Public Safety Roundtable” in Melbourne draws extensive media coverage and local law‑enforcement endorsements, boosting his visibility and lifting the market to a new peak
Fishback announces he was banned from all Waffle House locations in Florida after attempting a campaign tour, a public relations setback highlighting campaign difficulties
James Fishback dips to 8%2%
Fishback announces he was banned from all Waffle House locations in Florida after attempting a campaign tour, a public relations setback highlighting campaign difficulties
Start of Florida 2025 Legislative Session with Governor DeSantis delivering his final State of the State address, endorsing other Republican candidates for governor and no
Casey DeSantis dips to 1%2%
Start of Florida 2025 Legislative Session with Governor DeSantis delivering his final State of the State address, endorsing other Republican candidates for governor and no indication of Casey DeSantis running; market
Fishback publicly criticizes AI data centers for high water and electricity use in Florida, aligning with environmental concerns but also sparking debate on economic impact
James Fishback jumps to 19%7%
Fishback publicly criticizes AI data centers for high water and electricity use in Florida, aligning with environmental concerns but also sparking debate on economic impact
Byron Donalds officially announces candidacy for Florida governor, emerging as a major Republican contender and further diminishing Gaetz's prospects
Byron Donalds officially announces candidacy for Florida governor, emerging as a major Republican contender and further diminishing Gaetz's prospects
A new American Promise poll released in early December (cited in a February article) shows Donalds leading the Republican field with a comfortable margin, causing a modest
Byron Donalds rises to 81%3%
A new American Promise poll released in early December (cited in a February article) shows Donalds leading the Republican field with a comfortable margin, causing a modest
Jay Collins travels to Florida Panhandle to promote DeSantis’ pay raise for correction officers, gaining local endorsements
Jay Collins rises to 8%3%
Collins’ active campaigning and securing backing from Santa Rosa County Sheriff Bob Johnson provided a modest boost in market perception.
Matt Gaetz speaks at CPAC USA 2026, maintaining a public political presence but without announcing a run for Florida governor, indicating no momentum in the primary race
Matt Gaetz dips to 0%1%
Matt Gaetz speaks at CPAC USA 2026, maintaining a public political presence but without announcing a run for Florida governor, indicating no momentum in the primary race
Jay Collins officially kicks off gubernatorial campaign amid fundraising and polling struggles
Jay Collins dips to 4%3%
Despite formal campaign launch and endorsements from some local officials, Collins lagged behind Donalds in fundraising and polls, leading to a
Fishback receives endorsement from Tucker Carlson on his podcast, briefly boosting his profile among conservative voters
James Fishback jumps to 12%6%
Fishback receives endorsement from Tucker Carlson on his podcast, briefly boosting his profile among conservative voters
Donald’s campaign announces a $22.4 million first‑quarter 2026 haul, taking his total fundraising to over $60 million and prompting a sharp
Byron Donalds rises to 87%3%
Donald’s campaign announces a $22.4 million first‑quarter 2026 haul, taking his total fundraising to over $60 million and prompting a sharp
Fishback’s provocative rhetoric, including calling opponent Byron Donalds a “slave” to corporate donors and defending far-right figures, draws criticism and alienates moderate
James Fishback rises to 16%3%
Fishback’s provocative rhetoric, including calling opponent Byron Donalds a “slave” to corporate donors and defending far-right figures, draws criticism and alienates moderate voters
Media scrutiny intensifies over Fishback’s past controversies, including allegations of stalking and inappropriate relationship with a minor linked to his nonprofit debate
James Fishback drops to 13%8%
Media scrutiny intensifies over Fishback’s past controversies, including allegations of stalking and inappropriate relationship with a minor linked to his nonprofit debate organization, damaging his public image
Governor Ron DeSantis announces the Floridians First 2026-2027 budget including $10 million to launch the Casey DeSantis Cancer Innovation, Care, and Research Program,
Casey DeSantis dips to 1%2%
Governor Ron DeSantis announces the Floridians First 2026-2027 budget including $10 million to launch the Casey DeSantis Cancer Innovation, Care, and Research Program, highlighting her ongoing public role but not signaling a gubernatorial run; market
Emerson College releases a poll showing Donalds at 46% support – a 42‑point lead over the nearest rival – reinforcing his front‑runner status and pushing the market to a new high
Byron Donalds rises to 84%3%
Emerson College releases a poll showing Donalds at 46% support – a 42‑point lead over the nearest rival – reinforcing his front‑runner status and pushing the market to a new high
Rumors swirl that Jay Collins may suspend his campaign after canceling events; Collins strongly denies exit rumors
Jay Collins jumps to 12%9%
Speculation about Collins dropping out arose after campaign event cancellations, but his forceful denial and pushback against "fake news" briefly boosted market confidence.
Reports emerge highlighting Fishback’s dismal fundraising haul of only $950 in the campaign’s first quarter, raising doubts about his viability
James Fishback drops to 21%10%
Reports emerge highlighting Fishback’s dismal fundraising haul of only $950 in the campaign’s first quarter, raising doubts about his viability
Hope Florida scandal emerges with Casey DeSantis under criminal investigation for alleged misappropriation of $10 million in public funds linked to the charity she promoted;
Casey DeSantis plunges to 3%38%
this severely damaged her political prospects and caused a steep market
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces candidacy for governor, entering a crowded Republican primary against Trump-backed Byron Donalds
Jay Collins plunges to 5%37%
Collins formally launched his campaign emphasizing military leadership and accountability but faced immediate challenges from Donalds’ strong early polling and Trump endorsement, causing a sharp market
James Fishback officially announces candidacy for Florida governor, positioning himself as a challenger to Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds with a platform focused on affordability,
James Fishback drops to 31%12%
James Fishback officially announces candidacy for Florida governor, positioning himself as a challenger to Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds with a platform focused on affordability, anti-H-1B visa stance, and property tax elimination
Donalds’ campaign reports a record‑breaking $45 million raised in 2025, including $13 million in Q4, cementing him as the best‑funded GOP contender in Florida history
Byron Donalds jumps to 81%11%
Donalds’ campaign reports a record‑breaking $45 million raised in 2025, including $13 million in Q4, cementing him as the best‑funded GOP contender in Florida history
Special election held to fill Matt Gaetz's vacated congressional seat, confirming his departure from elected office and signaling no gubernatorial campaign launch
Matt Gaetz drops to 1%7%
Special election held to fill Matt Gaetz's vacated congressional seat, confirming his departure from elected office and signaling no gubernatorial campaign launch
President Donald Trump publicly endorses Byron Donalds for governor, a “seal of approval” that instantly widens his donor base and lifts his poll numbers
Byron Donalds jumps to 70%10%
President Donald Trump publicly endorses Byron Donalds for governor, a “seal of approval” that instantly widens his donor base and lifts his poll numbers
Byron Donalds officially announces his 2026 Florida‑governor candidacy on Fox News, becoming the first Republican to enter the race and immediately drawing national attention
Byron Donalds jumps to 60%12%
Byron Donalds officially announces his 2026 Florida‑governor candidacy on Fox News, becoming the first Republican to enter the race and immediately drawing national attention
Matt Gaetz resigns from U.S. House of Representatives after being nominated by Donald Trump for U.S.
Matt Gaetz plunges to 8%33%
Attorney General, ending his congressional career and removing him from the gubernatorial race consideration
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