**The first round of Colombia’s 2026 presidential election took place on May 31, with official results showing 57.89% turnout among roughly 41.42 million registered voters—approximately 23.98 million ballots cast.** This figure aligns closely with the market’s dominant 57-60% outcome. High polarization between leading candidates Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda, combined with strong mobilization by their respective bases, drove elevated participation. Election day itself remained orderly and largely peaceful, with international observers confirming transparency despite pre-election tensions and isolated incidents of violence. Official certification by Colombia’s electoral authorities and rapid preliminary counts from the Registraduría Nacional further anchored trader consensus around the reported level, which marked an increase from the 2022 first-round figure. The market’s tight clustering reflects the skin-in-the-game assessment that final validated numbers are unlikely to shift materially outside this band. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a significant post-certification adjustment from recounts or audits (historically rare in Colombia) or the discovery of widespread irregularities affecting enough ballots to push the percentage into an adjacent bracket, though no such developments have been credibly reported.