Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 54-57% turnout as the leading outcome at 42% implied probability for Colombia's May 31 presidential first round, aligning with historical precedents of 53-55% in recent cycles like 2022 amid a fragmented field featuring Iván Cepeda at around 39-40% in April polls. Recent low turnout in the March 8 parliamentary elections and primaries—described as subdued despite competitive primaries boosting candidates like Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella—signals voter fatigue from ongoing security concerns and economic pressures, capping expectations below 60%. High undecided voters (over 50% in late 2025 surveys) and no frontrunner poised for a first-round majority heighten uncertainty, with upcoming campaign pushes and weather potentially tipping participation in key regions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated54-57% 43%
60%+ 24%
48-51% 24%
57-60% 21%
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
<48%
20%
48-51%
24%
51-54%
20%
54-57%
43%
57-60%
21%
60%+
24%
54-57% 43%
60%+ 24%
48-51% 24%
57-60% 21%
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
<48%
$16 Vol.
20%
48-51%
$0 Vol.
24%
51-54%
$0 Vol.
20%
54-57%
$6 Vol.
43%
57-60%
$0 Vol.
21%
60%+
$54 Vol.
24%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 54-57% turnout as the leading outcome at 42% implied probability for Colombia's May 31 presidential first round, aligning with historical precedents of 53-55% in recent cycles like 2022 amid a fragmented field featuring Iván Cepeda at around 39-40% in April polls. Recent low turnout in the March 8 parliamentary elections and primaries—described as subdued despite competitive primaries boosting candidates like Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella—signals voter fatigue from ongoing security concerns and economic pressures, capping expectations below 60%. High undecided voters (over 50% in late 2025 surveys) and no frontrunner poised for a first-round majority heighten uncertainty, with upcoming campaign pushes and weather potentially tipping participation in key regions.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$76End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 54-57% turnout as the leading outcome at 42% implied probability for Colombia's May 31 presidential first round, aligning with historical precedents of 53-55% in recent cycles like 2022 amid a fragmented field featuring Iván Cepeda at around 39-40% in April polls. Recent low turnout in the March 8 parliamentary elections and primaries—described as subdued despite competitive primaries boosting candidates like Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella—signals voter fatigue from ongoing security concerns and economic pressures, capping expectations below 60%. High undecided voters (over 50% in late 2025 surveys) and no frontrunner poised for a first-round majority heighten uncertainty, with upcoming campaign pushes and weather potentially tipping participation in key regions.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$76End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 54-57% turnout as the leading outcome at 42% implied probability for Colombia's May 31 presidential first round, aligning with historical precedents of 53-55% in recent cycles like 2022 amid a fragmented field featuring Iván Cepeda at around 39-40% in April polls. Recent low turnout in the March 8 parliamentary elections and primaries—described as subdued despite competitive primaries boosting candidates like Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella—signals voter fatigue from ongoing security concerns and economic pressures, capping expectations below 60%. High undecided voters (over 50% in late 2025 surveys) and no frontrunner poised for a first-round majority heighten uncertainty, with upcoming campaign pushes and weather potentially tipping participation in key regions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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