Incumbent Democrat Bobby Scott's long tenure and the district's D+18 partisan voter index underpin the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The seat, encompassing parts of Hampton Roads including Hampton, Norfolk, and Newport News, has consistently delivered large Democratic margins, most recently Scott's 70% share in 2024. Both major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the August 4 primaries, where Scott faces minimal opposition while the Republican nominee remains lightly funded. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or candidate developments that would narrow the gap. A late scandal, health issue, or unforeseen national swing could still alter the outcome, though such shifts have historically proven rare in this district.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoVA-03 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
VA-03 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$36,750 Vol.
$36,750 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
6%
$36,750 Vol.
$36,750 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$20,078 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$16,672 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Bobby Scott's long tenure and the district's D+18 partisan voter index underpin the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The seat, encompassing parts of Hampton Roads including Hampton, Norfolk, and Newport News, has consistently delivered large Democratic margins, most recently Scott's 70% share in 2024. Both major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the August 4 primaries, where Scott faces minimal opposition while the Republican nominee remains lightly funded. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or candidate developments that would narrow the gap. A late scandal, health issue, or unforeseen national swing could still alter the outcome, though such shifts have historically proven rare in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$36,750Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Bobby Scott's long tenure and the district's D+18 partisan voter index underpin the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The seat, encompassing parts of Hampton Roads including Hampton, Norfolk, and Newport News, has consistently delivered large Democratic margins, most recently Scott's 70% share in 2024. Both major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the August 4 primaries, where Scott faces minimal opposition while the Republican nominee remains lightly funded. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or candidate developments that would narrow the gap. A late scandal, health issue, or unforeseen national swing could still alter the outcome, though such shifts have historically proven rare in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$36,750Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Bobby Scott's long tenure and the district's D+18 partisan voter index underpin the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The seat, encompassing parts of Hampton Roads including Hampton, Norfolk, and Newport News, has consistently delivered large Democratic margins, most recently Scott's 70% share in 2024. Both major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the August 4 primaries, where Scott faces minimal opposition while the Republican nominee remains lightly funded. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or candidate developments that would narrow the gap. A late scandal, health issue, or unforeseen national swing could still alter the outcome, though such shifts have historically proven rare in this district.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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