Ongoing US-Iran negotiations mediated in Pakistan have yielded limited progress since April 2025 amid the 2026 conflict, fostering trader consensus of a 52.5% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027 despite persistent impasses. Iran's April 27 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, end hostilities, and postpone nuclear talks was rejected by President Trump, who demands upfront curbs on uranium enrichment and ballistic missiles while enforcing a naval blockade that has spiked oil prices. US officials note strides on interim ceasefires, but gaps remain over sanctions relief and verification. Further mediation or compromise could boost odds, while escalation or regime hardline statements might solidify no-deal scenarios.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$862,268 Vol.
$862,268 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$862,268 Vol.
$862,268 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations mediated in Pakistan have yielded limited progress since April 2025 amid the 2026 conflict, fostering trader consensus of a 52.5% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027 despite persistent impasses. Iran's April 27 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, end hostilities, and postpone nuclear talks was rejected by President Trump, who demands upfront curbs on uranium enrichment and ballistic missiles while enforcing a naval blockade that has spiked oil prices. US officials note strides on interim ceasefires, but gaps remain over sanctions relief and verification. Further mediation or compromise could boost odds, while escalation or regime hardline statements might solidify no-deal scenarios.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Volumen
$862,268Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations mediated in Pakistan have yielded limited progress since April 2025 amid the 2026 conflict, fostering trader consensus of a 52.5% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027 despite persistent impasses. Iran's April 27 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, end hostilities, and postpone nuclear talks was rejected by President Trump, who demands upfront curbs on uranium enrichment and ballistic missiles while enforcing a naval blockade that has spiked oil prices. US officials note strides on interim ceasefires, but gaps remain over sanctions relief and verification. Further mediation or compromise could boost odds, while escalation or regime hardline statements might solidify no-deal scenarios.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$862,268Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations mediated in Pakistan have yielded limited progress since April 2025 amid the 2026 conflict, fostering trader consensus of a 52.5% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027 despite persistent impasses. Iran's April 27 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, end hostilities, and postpone nuclear talks was rejected by President Trump, who demands upfront curbs on uranium enrichment and ballistic missiles while enforcing a naval blockade that has spiked oil prices. US officials note strides on interim ceasefires, but gaps remain over sanctions relief and verification. Further mediation or compromise could boost odds, while escalation or regime hardline statements might solidify no-deal scenarios.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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