Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in the forecast lowest temperature at Miami International Airport on May 18, with implied probabilities evenly spread at 24-26% across bins from 73°F or below to 88-89°F, driven by divergent NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles showing nighttime lows ranging 73-85°F. A persistent upper-ridge pattern has delivered above-normal warmth this week, including observed lows of 78-80°F on May 11-13 versus the mid-May climatological average of 73-75°F, fueled by high sea surface temperatures near 85°F and urban heat island effects limiting radiative cooling. Key differentiators include overnight cloud cover from sea-breeze thunderstorms, which could trap heat and boost lows into the low 80s, versus clearer skies allowing dips to the mid-70s; daily NWS updates and new model runs through May 17 will refine guidance ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Miami el 18 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Miami el 18 de mayo?
73°F o menos 26%
82-83°F 19%
84-85°F 19%
92°F o más 18.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 may 2026
73°F o menos
26%
74-75°F
12%
76-77°F
14%
78-79°F
25%
80-81°F
12%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
19%
86-87°F
9%
88-89°F
6%
90-91°F
1%
92°F o más
19%
73°F o menos 26%
82-83°F 19%
84-85°F 19%
92°F o más 18.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 may 2026
73°F o menos
$0 Vol.
26%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
12%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
14%
78-79°F
$5 Vol.
25%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
12%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
19%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
19%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
9%
88-89°F
$20 Vol.
6%
90-91°F
$340 Vol.
1%
92°F o más
$72 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in the forecast lowest temperature at Miami International Airport on May 18, with implied probabilities evenly spread at 24-26% across bins from 73°F or below to 88-89°F, driven by divergent NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles showing nighttime lows ranging 73-85°F. A persistent upper-ridge pattern has delivered above-normal warmth this week, including observed lows of 78-80°F on May 11-13 versus the mid-May climatological average of 73-75°F, fueled by high sea surface temperatures near 85°F and urban heat island effects limiting radiative cooling. Key differentiators include overnight cloud cover from sea-breeze thunderstorms, which could trap heat and boost lows into the low 80s, versus clearer skies allowing dips to the mid-70s; daily NWS updates and new model runs through May 17 will refine guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$437Fecha de finalización
18 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in the forecast lowest temperature at Miami International Airport on May 18, with implied probabilities evenly spread at 24-26% across bins from 73°F or below to 88-89°F, driven by divergent NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles showing nighttime lows ranging 73-85°F. A persistent upper-ridge pattern has delivered above-normal warmth this week, including observed lows of 78-80°F on May 11-13 versus the mid-May climatological average of 73-75°F, fueled by high sea surface temperatures near 85°F and urban heat island effects limiting radiative cooling. Key differentiators include overnight cloud cover from sea-breeze thunderstorms, which could trap heat and boost lows into the low 80s, versus clearer skies allowing dips to the mid-70s; daily NWS updates and new model runs through May 17 will refine guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$437Fecha de finalización
18 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIATrader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in the forecast lowest temperature at Miami International Airport on May 18, with implied probabilities evenly spread at 24-26% across bins from 73°F or below to 88-89°F, driven by divergent NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles showing nighttime lows ranging 73-85°F. A persistent upper-ridge pattern has delivered above-normal warmth this week, including observed lows of 78-80°F on May 11-13 versus the mid-May climatological average of 73-75°F, fueled by high sea surface temperatures near 85°F and urban heat island effects limiting radiative cooling. Key differentiators include overnight cloud cover from sea-breeze thunderstorms, which could trap heat and boost lows into the low 80s, versus clearer skies allowing dips to the mid-70s; daily NWS updates and new model runs through May 17 will refine guidance ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes