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Elecciones·Oriente Medio

Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano

icon for Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano
Elecciones·Oriente Medio

Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano

Fuerzas Libanesas (FL) 6%

Movimiento Dignidad (MD) 5.0%

Partido Mada (Mada) 4.8%

Asociación de Proyectos Caritativos Islámicos (ICPA) 4.7%

Polymarket

$504,975 Vol.

Fuerzas Libanesas (FL) 6%

Movimiento Dignidad (MD) 5.0%

Partido Mada (Mada) 4.8%

Asociación de Proyectos Caritativos Islámicos (ICPA) 4.7%

Polymarket

$504,975 Vol.

Fuerzas Libanesas (FL)

$154,854 Vol.

6%

Movimiento Dignidad (MD)

$22,280 Vol.

5%

Partido Mada (Mada)

$22,652 Vol.

5%

Asociación de Proyectos Caritativos Islámicos (ICPA)

$3,030 Vol.

5%

Federación Revolucionaria Armenia (FRA)

$4,874 Vol.

5%

Hezbolá (Hezb)

$43,235 Vol.

3%

Grupo Islámico (IG)

$3,130 Vol.

3%

Movimiento Amal (Amal)

$48,594 Vol.

3%

Partido Kataeb (Kataeb)

$3,305 Vol.

3%

ReLebanon

$2,271 Vol.

3%

Partido de la Unión (UP)

$2,736 Vol.

2%

Partido Nacional Liberal (PNL)

$3,583 Vol.

2%

Movimiento Marada (MM)

$2,642 Vol.

2%

Partido Taqaddom

$5,090 Vol.

2%

Alianza Watani (Watani)

$3,405 Vol.

2%

Partido del Diálogo Nacional (NDP)

$41,382 Vol.

2%

Movimiento Patriótico Libre (FPM)

$72,979 Vol.

1%

Organización Naserista Popular (PNO)

$2,600 Vol.

1%

Lana – Partido Socialdemócrata (Lana)

$3,991 Vol.

1%

Movimiento de la Independencia (IM)

$2,827 Vol.

<1%

Partido Socialista Progresista (PSP)

$47,234 Vol.

<1%

Partido Baaz Árabe Socialista en Líbano (Baaz)

$5,294 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$2,988 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament extended its mandate by two years on March 9, 2026, postponing legislative elections originally set for May amid escalation in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, widespread displacement, and humanitarian crisis, injecting profound uncertainty into the wide-open field reflected in trader consensus. No party exceeds 6% implied probability, with Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) edging Lebanese Forces (LF) and Mada Party due to bets on their sectarian bases—Armenian diaspora support for ARF, Christian opposition anti-Hezbollah stance for LF—and emerging reform appeal for Mada, contrasting weakened Shia incumbents like Hezbollah (3%) and Amal (3%). Consolidation could hinge on presidential vacancy resolution, cross-sectarian alliances, expatriate turnout under proportional representation, or de-escalation enabling snap polls before 2028.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volumen
$504,975
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament extended its mandate by two years on March 9, 2026, postponing legislative elections originally set for May amid escalation in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, widespread displacement, and humanitarian crisis, injecting profound uncertainty into the wide-open field reflected in trader consensus. No party exceeds 6% implied probability, with Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) edging Lebanese Forces (LF) and Mada Party due to bets on their sectarian bases—Armenian diaspora support for ARF, Christian opposition anti-Hezbollah stance for LF—and emerging reform appeal for Mada, contrasting weakened Shia incumbents like Hezbollah (3%) and Amal (3%). Consolidation could hinge on presidential vacancy resolution, cross-sectarian alliances, expatriate turnout under proportional representation, or de-escalation enabling snap polls before 2028.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volumen
$504,975
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 23 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Fuerzas Libanesas (FL)" con 6%, seguido de "Movimiento Dignidad (MD)" con 5%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 6¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 6% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" ha generado $505K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 6, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano", explora los 23 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" es "Fuerzas Libanesas (FL)" con solo 6%, con "Movimiento Dignidad (MD)" muy cerca con 5%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.