**Flávio Bolsonaro leads the market for second place in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round at 68% because Jair Bolsonaro’s imprisonment has funneled most right-wing support to the senator and Liberal Party nominee, giving him the strongest name recognition and base consolidation ahead of July party conventions.** Recent May audio leaks tying Flávio to a Banco Master fraud figure and funding requests for a “Dark Horse” biopic about his father triggered a several-point polling dip in Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and Quaest surveys, opening space for Renan Santos (Mission Party), whose anti-establishment appeal has lifted him into the mid-teens among younger voters. Lula remains the clear first-round favorite in the low 40s, keeping him at low odds for second, while other right-leaning governors such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema trail further back amid coalition negotiations. Market pricing reflects these polling shifts and the right’s ongoing fragmentation four months before voting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFlávio Bolsonaro 68%
Renan Santos 16.4%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 5%
Camilo Santana 4.0%
$3,702,218 Vol.
$3,702,218 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
68%
Renan Santos
16%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
5%
Camilo Santana
4%
Romeu Zema
3%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
Tereza Cristina
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 68%
Renan Santos 16.4%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 5%
Camilo Santana 4.0%
$3,702,218 Vol.
$3,702,218 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
68%
Renan Santos
16%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
5%
Camilo Santana
4%
Romeu Zema
3%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
Tereza Cristina
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Flávio Bolsonaro leads the market for second place in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round at 68% because Jair Bolsonaro’s imprisonment has funneled most right-wing support to the senator and Liberal Party nominee, giving him the strongest name recognition and base consolidation ahead of July party conventions.** Recent May audio leaks tying Flávio to a Banco Master fraud figure and funding requests for a “Dark Horse” biopic about his father triggered a several-point polling dip in Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and Quaest surveys, opening space for Renan Santos (Mission Party), whose anti-establishment appeal has lifted him into the mid-teens among younger voters. Lula remains the clear first-round favorite in the low 40s, keeping him at low odds for second, while other right-leaning governors such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema trail further back amid coalition negotiations. Market pricing reflects these polling shifts and the right’s ongoing fragmentation four months before voting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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