With 26 Republican governors currently in office heading into the 2026 midterms, trader consensus on Polymarket implies a slight net loss to 24–25 (27%) or 22–23 (23%) post-election across 36 races, including 18 opens from term limits or retirements like Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Kansas, Georgia, and Florida. This tight clustering reflects uncertainty in battlegrounds such as Arizona (Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs seeking reelection), Nevada (Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo), Iowa (Republican open), and the noted Democratic opens, where recent primary polls—such as Tudor Dixon's lead in Michigan GOP and Courtney Jackson's edge in Georgia—show fluid fields without decisive shifts in the past week. Cook Political Report's April 16 ratings held steady post-Alaska adjustment, underscoring incumbency advantages for Republicans but vulnerability in swing states; upcoming June–August primaries and national trends favoring the out-party could tip balances toward separation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado24–25 27%
22–23 23%
<22 14%
26–27 13%
$664,731 Vol.
$664,731 Vol.
3 nov 2026
<22
14%
22–23
23%
24–25
27%
26–27
13%
28–29
5%
30–31
2%
32+
6%
24–25 27%
22–23 23%
<22 14%
26–27 13%
$664,731 Vol.
$664,731 Vol.
3 nov 2026
<22
$44,931 Vol.
14%
22–23
$5,699 Vol.
23%
24–25
$29,916 Vol.
27%
26–27
$13,286 Vol.
13%
28–29
$552,967 Vol.
5%
30–31
$5,053 Vol.
2%
32+
$12,880 Vol.
6%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.With 26 Republican governors currently in office heading into the 2026 midterms, trader consensus on Polymarket implies a slight net loss to 24–25 (27%) or 22–23 (23%) post-election across 36 races, including 18 opens from term limits or retirements like Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Kansas, Georgia, and Florida. This tight clustering reflects uncertainty in battlegrounds such as Arizona (Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs seeking reelection), Nevada (Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo), Iowa (Republican open), and the noted Democratic opens, where recent primary polls—such as Tudor Dixon's lead in Michigan GOP and Courtney Jackson's edge in Georgia—show fluid fields without decisive shifts in the past week. Cook Political Report's April 16 ratings held steady post-Alaska adjustment, underscoring incumbency advantages for Republicans but vulnerability in swing states; upcoming June–August primaries and national trends favoring the out-party could tip balances toward separation.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ET
Volumen
$664,731Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.With 26 Republican governors currently in office heading into the 2026 midterms, trader consensus on Polymarket implies a slight net loss to 24–25 (27%) or 22–23 (23%) post-election across 36 races, including 18 opens from term limits or retirements like Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Kansas, Georgia, and Florida. This tight clustering reflects uncertainty in battlegrounds such as Arizona (Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs seeking reelection), Nevada (Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo), Iowa (Republican open), and the noted Democratic opens, where recent primary polls—such as Tudor Dixon's lead in Michigan GOP and Courtney Jackson's edge in Georgia—show fluid fields without decisive shifts in the past week. Cook Political Report's April 16 ratings held steady post-Alaska adjustment, underscoring incumbency advantages for Republicans but vulnerability in swing states; upcoming June–August primaries and national trends favoring the out-party could tip balances toward separation.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$664,731Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With 26 Republican governors currently in office heading into the 2026 midterms, trader consensus on Polymarket implies a slight net loss to 24–25 (27%) or 22–23 (23%) post-election across 36 races, including 18 opens from term limits or retirements like Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Kansas, Georgia, and Florida. This tight clustering reflects uncertainty in battlegrounds such as Arizona (Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs seeking reelection), Nevada (Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo), Iowa (Republican open), and the noted Democratic opens, where recent primary polls—such as Tudor Dixon's lead in Michigan GOP and Courtney Jackson's edge in Georgia—show fluid fields without decisive shifts in the past week. Cook Political Report's April 16 ratings held steady post-Alaska adjustment, underscoring incumbency advantages for Republicans but vulnerability in swing states; upcoming June–August primaries and national trends favoring the out-party could tip balances toward separation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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