Reports indicate Israel limits use of top missile defenses due to Iranian missile barrage;

4 drops to 14%13%

no new countries struck by Israel reported, market

Hezbollah launches drone strikes on Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon;

4 jumps to 27%5%

Israel carries out airstrikes in south Lebanon, confirming ongoing strikes in Lebanon as second country

IDF reports over 20 attacks across Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley and south, confirming continued Lebanese strikes but no expansion to additional countries

18 dips to 10%4%

IDF reports over 20 attacks across Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley and south, confirming continued Lebanese strikes but no expansion to additional countries

Reports of Israeli strikes on Houthi leaders and power plants in Yemen amid escalating conflict

5 jumps to 34%14%

Israel carried out airstrikes on the Hezyaz power plant near Sanaa and assassinated Houthi leaders in Yemen in August 2025 and early 2026, confirming strikes on Yemeni soil. This expanded the count of countries struck by Israel to include Yemen, supporting the market's upward.

Reports confirmed Israel's military campaigns remained concentrated in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, Iran, and Yemen, with no new countries struck, reinforcing the low probability of strikes on seven or more countries

7 drops to 3%5%

The market corrected downward as no expansion to new countries was observed.

Continued reports of Israeli strikes and incursions remain focused on Syria and Lebanon with no credible evidence of strikes on additional countries' soil, maintaining low market

9 rises to 2%1%

Continued reports of Israeli strikes and incursions remain focused on Syria and Lebanon with no credible evidence of strikes on additional countries' soil, maintaining low market confidence in the 9-country strike outcome

Israeli cabinet approves $334 million plan to transfer thousands of Israeli civilians into the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, signaling intent to consolidate control over Syrian

3 jumps to 34%13%

Israeli cabinet approves $334 million plan to transfer thousands of Israeli civilians into the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, signaling intent to consolidate control over Syrian territory

Israel announces deployment of the Iron Beam laser system to the United Arab Emirates after fighting with Iran, signalling a shift of focus away from opening new fronts and

4 rises to 14%1%

Israel announces deployment of the Iron Beam laser system to the United Arab Emirates after fighting with Iran, signalling a shift of focus away from opening new fronts and prompting a modest

Israeli strikes across southern Lebanon and Beirut kill at least 14 people, with Israel threatening to hit Lebanon’s main border crossing with Syria, causing temporary closure

3 jumps to 21%10%

Israeli strikes across southern Lebanon and Beirut kill at least 14 people, with Israel threatening to hit Lebanon’s main border crossing with Syria, causing temporary closure

Israeli airstrikes target Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon amid escalating conflict;

4 drops to 34%6%

strikes on Lebanese soil confirm second country struck besides Iran

Israel carries out 11 airstrikes on Damascus and Hama in Syria, continuing military pressure on Syrian government targets

3 rises to 11%4%

Israel carries out 11 airstrikes on Damascus and Hama in Syria, continuing military pressure on Syrian government targets

Israel conducts a series of airstrikes on ten high‑rise buildings in Beirut, again targeting Lebanese sites but no new foreign country added

7 drops to 13%10%

Israel conducts a series of airstrikes on ten high‑rise buildings in Beirut, again targeting Lebanese sites but no new foreign country added

Israeli air defenses intercept Iranian missiles over Damascus, Syria, indicating ongoing conflict spillover into Syrian territory

3 drops to 19%9%

Israeli air defenses intercept Iranian missiles over Damascus, Syria, indicating ongoing conflict spillover into Syrian territory

Israeli Navy strike in Beirut kills Hezbollah’s Southern Front commander, a high‑profile attack on Lebanon’s capital that reinforced the perception that Lebanon would remain the

7 surges to 23%17%

Israeli Navy strike in Beirut kills Hezbollah’s Southern Front commander, a high‑profile attack on Lebanon’s capital that reinforced the perception that Lebanon would remain the only foreign country counted so far

Yemen’s Houthi rebels launch ballistic missile attacks on Israel, marking first such strikes since US-Israel war on Iran began;

4 dips to 40%4%

Israel’s response focused on Iran and proxies, no confirmed strikes on Yemen soil reported

Israeli Defense Minister warned of intensified strikes on Iran, and Israeli ground operations continued in Gaza, indicating ongoing military activity but still focused on a limited set of countries

7 rises to 7%1%

This warning and continued operations caused a minor

IDF launches broad strikes against Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon, including bombing a highway bridge, intensifying Israeli operations in Lebanon

3 jumps to 28%9%

IDF launches broad strikes against Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon, including bombing a highway bridge, intensifying Israeli operations in Lebanon

Iran launches cluster munition missile strikes on Israeli cities including Tel Aviv area;

4 jumps to 44%7%

Israel continues strikes on Iranian defense industrial sites; no new countries reported struck by Israel

Israel conducts airstrikes on Syrian government military infrastructure in southern Syria in response to attacks on Druze civilians in Suwayda province

3 drops to 38%7%

Israel conducts airstrikes on Syrian government military infrastructure in southern Syria in response to attacks on Druze civilians in Suwayda province

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announces indefinite prevention of Shia residents returning to southern Lebanon, signaling ongoing Israeli military presence and operations in

3 dips to 45%1%

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announces indefinite prevention of Shia residents returning to southern Lebanon, signaling ongoing Israeli military presence and operations in Lebanon

Renewed Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon and Syria amid rising tensions with Hezbollah and Iran, including attacks on Hezbollah infrastructure and Syrian military sites

7 rises to 9%3%

Heightened conflict in Lebanon and Syria raised the market's estimate temporarily.

Israel conducts 1,600 strikes on Iran in four days of war;

4 rises to 37%1%

Iran launches hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel; no confirmed Israeli strikes on other countries’ soil reported, reinforcing focus on Iran

Israel carries out an incursion into southern Syria, shelling areas in Daraa Governorate and arresting civilians, marking a direct strike on Syrian soil

3 jumps to 46%13%

Israel carries out an incursion into southern Syria, shelling areas in Daraa Governorate and arresting civilians, marking a direct strike on Syrian soil

Fact check clarifies that recent airstrike footage attributed to Iran bombing Israel was actually Israeli strikes on Damascus in 2025, indicating no new countries were struck in

9 dips to 1%1%

Fact check clarifies that recent airstrike footage attributed to Iran bombing Israel was actually Israeli strikes on Damascus in 2025, indicating no new countries were struck in early 2026, supporting market skepticism about the 9-country outcome

Israel and US conduct joint airstrikes in Iran, including assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei

5 jumps to 26%6%

Israel, with US support, launched a bombing campaign in Iran, including the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader on February 28, 2026. This confirmed Israel striking Iranian territory, adding Iran to the list of countries struck and increasing the market probability.

Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on Israel and US-allied Arab countries including UAE, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Israel;

4 jumps to 36%9%

Israel responds with strikes mainly on Iranian targets, showing conflict largely bilateral with Iran and Israel

Israel and the United States launch a war against Iran, striking Iranian sites (including a radar near Isfahan);

10 rises to 6%3%

the first confirmed Israeli aerial strike on Iranian territory adds a second foreign country to the count

US and Israel launch coordinated airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, initiating the 2026 Iran war;

4 jumps to 27%8%

strikes concentrated on Iran, setting stage for retaliatory strikes mostly between Israel and Iran

Israel and the United States launch coordinated missile strikes on Iran, assassinating Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, triggering regional escalation including Israeli

3 jumps to 33%11%

Israel and the United States launch coordinated missile strikes on Iran, assassinating Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, triggering regional escalation including Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Syria

Operation Roaring Lion: Israeli Air Force launches largest strike sortie in history, hitting 500+ targets

5 jumps to 29%12%

On February 28, 2026, the Israeli Air Force used approximately 200 fighter jets to strike over 500 targets in a massive operation, likely including multiple countries such as Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and possibly Yemen. This large-scale operation increased market expectations for Israel striking multiple countries in 2026.

Israeli drone strikes in Al-Kiswah, Syria, kill eight soldiers amid ongoing Syrian conflict

5 rises to 17%2%

Israel carried out drone strikes in southern Syria targeting military personnel, confirming ongoing Israeli military operations in Syria beyond airstrikes, maintaining Syria as a key country struck.

Israeli airstrikes target Hezbollah missile headquarters in Baalbek, Lebanon, killing multiple commanders

5 jumps to 26%13%

The IDF conducted at least six strikes on Hezbollah missile command centers in northeastern Lebanon, killing at least eight fighters including commanders. This significant strike against Hezbollah's missile capabilities in Lebanon suggested continued Israeli military operations in Lebanon, reinforcing the count of countries struck.

Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah missile command centers in Baalbek, Lebanon, killing multiple commanders in a significant strike aimed at disrupting Hezbollah's missile capabilities

7 rises to 6%4%

This notable escalation in Lebanon briefly increased the perceived chance of multiple-country strikes.

Israeli airstrikes killed Hezbollah missile commanders in Baalbek, Lebanon

7 rises to 6%4%

Israeli airstrikes killed Hezbollah missile commanders in Baalbek, Lebanon

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warns of further strikes in Syria to protect Druze communities amid ongoing clashes, but no new countries reported struck;

9 dips to 2%1%

this reaffirmed Israel's focus on Syria and Lebanon, limiting the possibility of strikes in nine countries

Israeli airstrikes targeted Gaza following militant attacks, with no new countries involved, reinforcing the limited geographic scope of strikes in 2026

8 dips to 1%1%

Continued focus on Gaza and no new countries struck in early 2026 further reduced the market

Russia mediates between Israel and Syria amid ongoing Israeli strikes and regional tensions

5 jumps to 11%5%

Russia's increased diplomatic efforts to mediate a security agreement between Syria and Israel, including proposals for demilitarized zones and Russian patrols near the Israeli border, reflected ongoing Israeli military pressure on Syria and concerns about escalation. This diplomatic activity indicated continued Israeli strikes in Syria and possibly other countries, influencing market confidence.

Report confirmed Israel attacked at least six countries in 2025 (Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, Syria, Yemen) but no evidence of strikes in eight or more countries

8 dips to 1%2%

This retrospective report capped the number of countries struck at six, lowering confidence in the 8+ countries outcome.

Israeli drone strike in eastern Lebanon kills an IRGC operative, confirming continued strikes in Lebanon and raising doubts about further new‑country attacks

6 dips to 3%1%

Israeli drone strike in eastern Lebanon kills an IRGC operative, confirming continued strikes in Lebanon and raising doubts about further new‑country attacks

Israel bombs valleys in southern Lebanon (Houmin, Wadi Azza, Nimeiriya) in violation of the cease‑fire, intensifying daily cross‑border strikes

2 dips to 4%3%

Israel bombs valleys in southern Lebanon (Houmin, Wadi Azza, Nimeiriya) in violation of the cease‑fire, intensifying daily cross‑border strikes

Israeli air and naval strikes heavily targeted Syrian military and weapons infrastructure, destroying a large portion of Syria's strategic weapons, signaling intense but geographically focused operations

7 dips to 1%3%

The focus on Syria and Lebanon rather than new countries contributed to the low

Israel launches extensive airstrikes on Syrian military and naval targets, including Latakia port

5 rises to 8%2%

Israel's air force and navy conducted over 480 strikes in Syria within 48 hours, destroying a large portion of Syria's strategic weapons and naval vessels. This large-scale operation demonstrated Israel's capability and willingness to strike deep into Syrian territory, reinforcing the likelihood of Syria being one of the countries struck.

Reports confirm Israel conducted over 600 air, drone, or artillery attacks in Syria over the past year, focusing on military targets in southern Syria and Damascus, reinforcing

9 drops to 0%5%

Reports confirm Israel conducted over 600 air, drone, or artillery attacks in Syria over the past year, focusing on military targets in southern Syria and Damascus, reinforcing that Israel's strikes remain concentrated in Syria rather than expanding to many countries

Israeli Security Cabinet authorizes additional strikes on Iran following Netanyahu-Trump discussions, indicating escalation focused on Iran rather than multiple countries

4 jumps to 18%9%

Israeli Security Cabinet authorizes additional strikes on Iran following Netanyahu-Trump discussions, indicating escalation focused on Iran rather than multiple countries

Israeli drone strike kills five civilians in al‑Mawasi, Gaza; no new foreign country added

6 dips to 7%1%

Israeli drone strike kills five civilians in al‑Mawasi, Gaza; no new foreign country added

Israeli raid in Beit Jinn, Syria kills at least 13 people including two children, marking one of the deadliest Israeli strikes in southern Syria in months;

9 plunges to 4%42%

the raid involved Israeli ground forces and subsequent airstrikes to extract troops, intensifying conflict in Syria but limited to one country

Israel carries out airstrikes in southern Lebanon after a drone‑kill earlier in the day, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and warning civilians to evacuate

6 plunges to 8%39%

Israel carries out airstrikes in southern Lebanon after a drone‑kill earlier in the day, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and warning civilians to evacuate

Israeli Air Force conducts targeted strikes on weapons storage facilities across southern Syria to prevent arms falling into opposition hands

3 plunges to 19%28%

Israeli Air Force conducts targeted strikes on weapons storage facilities across southern Syria to prevent arms falling into opposition hands

Israeli Defense Forces Chief Eyal Zamir publicly warns Israel will strike enemies “wherever required, on near and distant fronts alike,” signaling potential for multiple-country

4 plunges to 14%34%

Israeli Defense Forces Chief Eyal Zamir publicly warns Israel will strike enemies “wherever required, on near and distant fronts alike,” signaling potential for multiple-country strikes in 2026

Israel mostly withdrew from Lebanon after ceasefire but maintained limited strikes on Hezbollah targets

7 plunges to 4%40%

Israel mostly withdrew from Lebanon after ceasefire but maintained limited strikes on Hezbollah targets

Israel largely withdrew from Lebanon following the November 2024 ceasefire but maintained military outposts, with ongoing limited strikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure

7 plunges to 4%40%

This event marked a reduction in the likelihood of broad multi-country strikes as Israel scaled back Lebanon operations, reflected in the sharp

Israeli strikes intensify in Lebanon and Syria amid ongoing conflict with Hezbollah and Iranian proxies

5 drops to 34%13%

Following the 2024 Lebanon War, Israel conducted multiple airstrikes targeting Hezbollah commanders and facilities in southern Beirut and southern Lebanon, as well as strikes on Syrian anti-aircraft radar stations near Sweida and Daraa. These cross-border strikes confirmed Israeli military activity in at least Lebanon and Syria, supporting the market's initial high probability for multiple countries struck.

Israel struck Qatar’s capital Doha, killing six people including Hamas affiliates, showing strikes beyond immediate neighbors but still limited to a few countries

8 dips to 2%1%

This strike outside the usual conflict zones showed some expansion but still limited in scope.

Israeli airstrike killed Iranian commander Razi Mousavi near Damascus, Syria, confirming strikes on Iranian and Syrian soil but no broader regional expansion

8 dips to 5%3%

This confirmed strikes in Syria and Iran but did not indicate a wider campaign across many countries.

Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon and launched an invasion of Lebanon, escalating strikes primarily in Lebanon and Gaza but not expanding to many new countries

8 plunges to 8%42%

This event marked a significant escalation but confined to Lebanon and Gaza, reducing the likelihood of strikes in many other countries.

Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon and invaded Lebanon, escalating strikes primarily in Lebanon and Gaza

8 plunges to 8%42%

Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon and invaded Lebanon, escalating strikes primarily in Lebanon and Gaza