Trader consensus prices "No" at 97%, reflecting the Iranian regime's proven resilience in suppressing the 2025–2026 nationwide protests that began December 28 amid currency collapse, hyperinflation, and economic mismanagement. Brutal crackdowns by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij militia quelled demonstrations by early 2026, with no significant resurgence in the past 30 days despite ongoing sanctions and oil export disruptions. Historical patterns show the regime enduring similar crises since 1979 through security force loyalty and lack of unified opposition. Scenarios that could alter odds include IRGC defections, Supreme Leader Khamenei's health crisis, or escalated external military actions before May 31 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes del 31 de mayo?
¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes del 31 de mayo?
Sí
$11,854,795 Vol.
$11,854,795 Vol.
31 may 2026
Sí
$11,854,795 Vol.
$11,854,795 Vol.
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 97%, reflecting the Iranian regime's proven resilience in suppressing the 2025–2026 nationwide protests that began December 28 amid currency collapse, hyperinflation, and economic mismanagement. Brutal crackdowns by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij militia quelled demonstrations by early 2026, with no significant resurgence in the past 30 days despite ongoing sanctions and oil export disruptions. Historical patterns show the regime enduring similar crises since 1979 through security force loyalty and lack of unified opposition. Scenarios that could alter odds include IRGC defections, Supreme Leader Khamenei's health crisis, or escalated external military actions before May 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Volumen
$11,854,795Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 97%, reflecting the Iranian regime's proven resilience in suppressing the 2025–2026 nationwide protests that began December 28 amid currency collapse, hyperinflation, and economic mismanagement. Brutal crackdowns by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij militia quelled demonstrations by early 2026, with no significant resurgence in the past 30 days despite ongoing sanctions and oil export disruptions. Historical patterns show the regime enduring similar crises since 1979 through security force loyalty and lack of unified opposition. Scenarios that could alter odds include IRGC defections, Supreme Leader Khamenei's health crisis, or escalated external military actions before May 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$11,856,003Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 97%, reflecting the Iranian regime's proven resilience in suppressing the 2025–2026 nationwide protests that began December 28 amid currency collapse, hyperinflation, and economic mismanagement. Brutal crackdowns by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij militia quelled demonstrations by early 2026, with no significant resurgence in the past 30 days despite ongoing sanctions and oil export disruptions. Historical patterns show the regime enduring similar crises since 1979 through security force loyalty and lack of unified opposition. Scenarios that could alter odds include IRGC defections, Supreme Leader Khamenei's health crisis, or escalated external military actions before May 31 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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