US-mediated security talks between Israel and Syria, including January 2026 Paris meetings and a joint intelligence-sharing and de-escalation mechanism, have advanced coordination on border stability and reduced immediate clashes but center on reviving the 1974 Disengagement Agreement rather than full diplomatic normalization. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani have signaled openness to non-aggression frameworks while insisting on Israeli withdrawals from southern positions and rejecting externally imposed deals. Israel maintains targeted operations to secure buffer zones and limit Iranian proxies, alongside demands for Syrian recognition of Golan Heights sovereignty. These parallel tracks reflect competing priorities of security coordination versus comprehensive ties, constrained by unresolved territorial disputes and military realities as of mid-2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIsraeli Defense Minister Rules Out Withdrawal from Security Zones in Syria and Lebanon
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz explicitly stated that Israel would not withdraw from its established security zones in Syria, Gaza, or Lebanon, dampening prospects for a swift diplomatic normalization.
Israeli Defense Minister Declares Israel Will Not Withdraw From Security Zones
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz explicitly stated that Israel would not withdraw from security zones in Syria, Lebanon, or Gaza, reinforcing Israel's hardline stance and dampening hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough.
Turkey condemns Israel's attacks on Syria and Lebanon
Turkey publicly criticized Israel's military actions in Syria and Lebanon, highlighting regional instability and potentially influencing diplomatic dynamics toward normalization.
Israel halts strikes on Iran after Tehran announces truce
Israel paused military operations against Iran following a truce announcement, reducing regional tensions and creating conditions for diplomatic engagement with Syria.
Kushner Floats Investment Packages to Incentivize Syria Joining Abraham Accords
Jared Kushner revealed discussions regarding large investment packages for Syria as an economic incentive to normalize relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords.
Tensions persist as Israel and Hezbollah exchange fire despite ceasefire
Despite ceasefire efforts, Israeli and Hezbollah forces exchanged fire, highlighting ongoing regional instability that complicates Israel-Syria normalization prospects and contributes to market pessimism about near-term diplomatic breakthroughs.
US brokers major ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon amid regional tensions
The US facilitated a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which may indirectly affect regional dynamics including Israel-Syria relations, but no direct progress on Israel-Syria normalization was reported, keeping market prices steady.
Syria's Foreign Minister expresses hope for calm and stable relations with Israel
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%3%
In Brussels, Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani expressed hope for calm and stable relations with Israel but noted no results yet, citing Israeli threats and destabilization, underscoring ongoing tensions and lack of formal normalization.
Trump chairs Israel-Lebanon peace talks in Washington
President Trump facilitated high-level peace talks between Israel and Lebanon, signaling renewed diplomatic engagement in the region and boosting confidence in broader Arab-Israel normalization efforts.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar states no near-term normalization with Syria expected
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%2%
Saar clarified that current contacts with Syria focus on limited security understandings rather than political normalization, reinforcing market skepticism and maintaining low price levels for normalization outcomes.
Trump Pushes for Expansion of Abraham Accords to Include Syria and Saudi Arabia
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%2%
U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that regional peace deals should require Israel's neighbors, including Syria, to join the Abraham Accords, though allies remained skeptical of forced normalization.
Trump Urges Middle East Nations to Join Abraham Accords in Iran Deal Push
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
President Donald Trump called on several Middle Eastern nations to join the Abraham Accords to normalize relations with Israel, though analysts remained skeptical of immediate breakthroughs.
President Trump urges more Middle Eastern countries to normalize relations with Israel
President Trump reiterated calls for additional Middle Eastern nations, including Syria, to normalize relations with Israel as part of a broader peace deal with Iran, signaling political support but no concrete agreement, maintaining market caution.
Iran claims it downed an Israeli surveillance drone; IDF says not familiar with incident
The incident heightened regional tensions and underscored the ongoing security challenges between Israel and its neighbors.
Analysis shows Syria and Lebanon prefer security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
A Stimson Center analysis highlighted that Syria and Lebanon are pursuing security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting persistent mistrust and complicating prospects for formal relations within 2026.
Analysis: Syria and Lebanon prefer security arrangements with Israel over full normalization
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
A geopolitical analysis highlighted that Syria and Lebanon are pursuing limited security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting deep mistrust and complex regional dynamics that dampen market expectations.
Analyst: Syria and Lebanon prefer security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
Geopolitical analysis indicated that Syria and Lebanon favor limited security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting regional caution and contributing to low market expectations for normalization by mid-2026.
Analysis shows Syria prefers security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
A geopolitical analysis highlighted that Syria and Lebanon prefer limited security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting ongoing mistrust and complicating prospects for official normalization announcements.
Analyst reports Syria prefers security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
A geopolitical analyst noted Syria’s preference for security arrangements rather than full diplomatic normalization with Israel, highlighting persistent mistrust and limiting prospects for formal relations in 2026.
Analysis Highlights Syria and Lebanon Prefer Security Arrangements Over Normalization
Geopolitical analysis confirmed that both Syria and Lebanon are pursuing separate negotiation tracks with Israel, prioritizing limited security arrangements and de-escalation over full diplomatic normalization.
Analysts report Syria and Israel prefer security arrangements over diplomatic normalization
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%4%
By May 2026, analysts noted that both Syria and Israel favored new security arrangements rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting entrenched positions and public opposition in Syria. This assessment aligned with the market's very low probability for normalization by mid-2026.
Parallel Talks with Israel reshaping Syria-Lebanon relations
A Stimson Center analysis noted that both Syria and Lebanon prefer new security arrangements with Israel over full diplomatic normalization, reflecting a strategic shift in their approaches.
Analyst notes Syria prefers security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
Geopolitical analysis highlighted Syria’s preference for limited security agreements rather than full diplomatic normalization with Israel, reflecting deep mistrust and complicating prospects for formal relations within the near term.
Syria and Lebanon Pursue Separate Security Tracks with Israel Over Normalization
An analysis highlighted that both Syria and Lebanon prefer limited security arrangements with Israel to restrain military pressure rather than pursuing full diplomatic normalization.
Analysis: Syria prefers security arrangements with Israel over full normalization
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
A geopolitical analysis highlighted that Syria and Lebanon prefer limited security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting deep mistrust and complicating prospects for official normalization, which contributed to declining market prices.
Stimson Center report: Syria and Lebanon pursue separate negotiation tracks with Israel
A Stimson Center analysis noted that Lebanon and Syria are now pursuing separate diplomatic efforts with Israel, creating new opportunities for normalization.
Analysis Highlights Syria and Lebanon Prefer Security Arrangements Over Full Normalization
June 30, 2026 rises to 4%1%
Geopolitical reporting confirmed that Syria and Lebanon are pursuing separate, limited security tracks with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, driving down the probability of formal ties.
Reports Highlight Syria and Lebanon Preferring Security Arrangements Over Full Normalization with Israel
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
Geopolitical analyses and regional reports confirmed that Syria and Israel are pursuing limited security arrangements and border de-escalation rather than full diplomatic normalization.
Syrian President al-Sharaa reiterates seriousness about security deal but notes Israeli brutality
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
Al-Sharaa emphasized Syria's seriousness about reaching a security agreement with Israel to maintain regional stability but criticized Israeli military actions as brutal. This mixed message reflected ongoing tensions and stalled progress, contributing to continued low market confidence in normalization by mid-2026.
European Union restores full application of Cooperation Agreement with Syria
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%2%
The European Council reinstated the full application of the EU-Syria Cooperation Agreement, signaling increased international engagement with Syria's interim government and supporting its reintegration into the global economy. This development may facilitate Syria's diplomatic normalization efforts, including with Israel.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa reiterates conditions for normalization with Israel
Al-Sharaa emphasized that normalization would require Israel to cease airstrikes and address the Golan Heights dispute, signaling that formal diplomatic relations remain distant. This statement contributed to market stabilization at low probabilities.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris but make no concrete progress
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris for a U.S.-mediated dialogue, agreeing only to set up a joint communication cell. The lack of substantive agreements dampened market expectations that formal diplomatic ties would be announced by year‑end, contributing to the price drop from 14% to 11% for the December‑2026 outcome and keeping the June‑2026 price low.
Syria Foreign Minister Al-Shaibani: Normalization separate from peace framework
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani reiterated that normalization and peace agreements are separate processes, emphasizing no military provocation.
Syria's foreign minister calls for comprehensive security agreement with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani emphasized the need for a security agreement separate from normalization, highlighting Syria's insistence on sovereignty and a calm agreement, which tempered market expectations for rapid normalization.
Syria's foreign minister calls for comprehensive security agreement with Israel
Syria's foreign minister Asaad al-Shaibani emphasized the need for a comprehensive security agreement with Israel, indicating a shift toward diplomatic engagement.
Syria Demands Security Agreement and Israeli Withdrawal, Separating Peace from Normalization
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani emphasized that Damascus views a security agreement and diplomatic normalization as separate processes, insisting that normalization cannot occur under military provocation.
Syria Seeks Security Agreement with Israel, Not Diplomatic Normalization
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani stated that Damascus views a security agreement and diplomatic normalization as separate processes, rejecting normalization under military pressure.
Syria calls for comprehensive security agreement with Israel, separates normalization
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Syria’s top diplomat emphasized that normalization of diplomatic relations and a peace framework are separate processes, expressing preference for a security agreement respecting Syria’s sovereignty. This nuanced stance maintained market caution about full normalization.
Syria Insists Normalization and Security Agreements are Separate Processes
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani clarified that Damascus views a security agreement and diplomatic normalization as entirely separate, dampening hopes for near-term formal normalization.
U.S.‑mediated Israel‑Syria talks resume in Paris
December 31, 2026 jumps to 13%6%
The Associated Press reported that senior officials from Israel and Syria met in Paris under U.S. mediation to discuss a security agreement, briefly reviving hopes of a formal diplomatic accord and causing a short‑term price rebound.
Syria's foreign minister calls for comprehensive security agreement with Israel
Syria's foreign minister emphasized the need for a comprehensive security agreement with Israel, reiterating that normalization and peace are separate processes, signaling continued diplomatic efforts despite no formal normalization.
Syrian Foreign Minister distinguishes security agreement from normalization
June 30, 2026 rises to 4%3%
Foreign Minister Al-Shaibani clarified that Damascus views a security agreement and diplomatic normalization as separate processes, rejecting normalization under military pressure.
Syrian foreign minister calls for comprehensive security agreement with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%2%
Syria's foreign minister emphasized the need for a comprehensive security agreement separate from normalization, demanding Israeli withdrawal from seized territories. This highlighted ongoing obstacles to normalization and contributed to market decline.
Syria insists on security agreement over diplomatic normalization with Israel
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani clarified that Damascus views a security framework and diplomatic normalization as separate processes, prioritizing a security agreement over full normalization.
US-mediated Israeli-Syrian talks resume in Paris aiming for security agreement
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Renewed U.S.-mediated talks in Paris sought to reactivate a 1974 disengagement agreement and Israeli withdrawal from buffer zones, but Israeli reluctance to withdraw limited progress, maintaining low market confidence.
Syrian Foreign Minister Says Country Seeks Stable Relations but Normalization Remains Separate
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%3%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani stated that Syria wants calm and stable relations with Israel through a security agreement, but emphasized that diplomatic normalization and a peace framework are separate processes.
Syria’s Foreign Minister calls for comprehensive security agreement with Israel
December 31, 2026 jumps to 13%6%
Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani emphasized the need for a calm, comprehensive security agreement respecting Syria’s sovereignty, distinguishing this from full normalization and indicating ongoing negotiations but no immediate diplomatic breakthrough.
Syrian Foreign Minister says country aims for stable relations but no results reached yet
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%2%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani stated that Syria wants calm and stable relations with Israel, but noted that negotiations have not yet yielded results and depend on a new security agreement.
Syria aims for stable relations with Israel but notes lack of results
December 31, 2026 jumps to 13%6%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani stated that Syria wants calm and stable relations to focus on reconstruction, but acknowledged that negotiations have not yet yielded results.
Lebanon and Israel hold first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington
December 31, 2026 jumps to 16%9%
Lebanon and Israel held direct talks brokered by the U.S., marking a historic step in regional diplomacy. Although Hezbollah opposed the talks and no breakthrough was reached, the event influenced market perceptions about regional normalization prospects, indirectly affecting the Israel-Syria market.
Hezbollah resists disarmament amid Lebanon-Israel talks
Hezbollah's refusal to disarm despite Lebanese government efforts and ongoing Israel-Lebanon talks highlights persistent regional instability. This resistance complicates broader peace efforts, including normalization between Israel and Syria, keeping market confidence low.
Syrian Foreign Minister calls for calm and stable relations with Israel
December 31, 2026 jumps to 13%6%
Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani expressed hope for calm and stable relations with Israel, emphasizing the need for a security agreement and warning against military provocations, indicating ongoing but cautious diplomatic engagement.
Syria’s Foreign Minister Al Shibani expresses hope for calm and stable relations with Israel
Syria’s Foreign Minister stated the desire for stable relations with Israel, emphasizing the need for a security agreement, but noted no results yet, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and market skepticism.
Syria's Foreign Minister says country seeks calm and stable relations with Israel but fears armed militias
June 30, 2026 drops to 2%5%
Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani expressed desire for stable relations with Israel but highlighted concerns about armed militias, reflecting ongoing tensions and uncertainty that contributed to low market confidence in normalization by mid-2026.
Hezbollah refuses to abide by any agreements from Lebanon-Israel talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%4%
Hezbollah publicly rejected any agreements resulting from Lebanon-Israel talks, maintaining its armed stance and complicating regional peace efforts. This hardened position contributed to skepticism about broader normalization efforts involving Israel and its neighbors, including Syria.
EU resumes 1978 cooperation agreement with Syria
The European Union announced it would fully resume its 1978 cooperation agreement with Syria, marking a significant diplomatic step that could facilitate broader normalization efforts.
EU-Syria cooperation agreement restored after 2011 crackdown
The EU announced it had restored its cooperation agreement with Syria, removing trade restrictions and signaling improved diplomatic relations.
Syria’s Foreign Minister Al Shibani calls for calm, stable relations with Israel
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%2%
Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani expressed desire for calm and stable relations with Israel but emphasized the need for a new security agreement. This underscored ongoing challenges and contributed to market declines for near-term normalization.
Syrian Foreign Minister Expresses Desire for Stable Relations but Confirms No Results Reached
June 30, 2026 rises to 3%2%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani stated that Syria hopes for calm and stable relations with Israel to focus on reconstruction, but admitted that talks have not yet yielded concrete results.
Syria’s Foreign Minister says Syria aims for stable relations but no results yet
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%3%
Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani stated in Brussels that Syria desires calm and stable relations with Israel but acknowledged no results have been reached yet. This tempered market expectations for imminent normalization, keeping prices low.
Syrian Foreign Minister Visits EU, Emphasizes Security Over Normalization
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%2%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani visited Brussels and stated that Syria wants calm and stable relations, but focused heavily on restoring the 1974 border security agreement rather than full diplomatic normalization.
Syria's minister appears to take aim at Hezbollah for plotting attacks on Syrian territory
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Syrian minister Al Shibani addressed Hezbollah's activities from Lebanon, stating 'there are some armed militias working out of Lebanon outside the control of the authorities and this is worrying to us.' This security concern may have influenced market sentiment.
Syrian official states no progress on strategic files without Israeli withdrawal from seized territories
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%4%
A Syrian official declared that moving forward on strategic agreements with Israel is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from Syrian territory seized since late 2024, dampening hopes for normalization and causing market prices to fall to lows.
Normalization prospects hit low amid no official announcements
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%2%
By May 2026, no official announcements of diplomatic relations were made by Israel or Syria, and market prices for normalization reached historic lows reflecting diminished expectations.
Market skepticism peaks as no official normalization announced by deadline
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
By May 2026, despite ongoing talks and mechanisms, no official announcement of diplomatic normalization was made by Israel or Syria, leading to a sharp decline in market prices reflecting low probability of near-term normalization.
Israeli cabinet discusses settlement‑related violence, no new diplomatic moves with Syria
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%7%
A cabinet meeting focused on settler violence in the West Bank diverted attention from the Israel‑Syria track, reinforcing scepticism about any near‑term normalisation and pushing the market to its lowest point in the window.
Syrian President al-Sharaa states normalization talks failed as Israel changed stance
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly stated that normalization talks with Israel failed due to Israel changing its mind at the last minute, reinforcing market pessimism about formal diplomatic relations.
Reports accuse Israel of sabotaging peace talks with intensified attacks in Syria and Lebanon
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Reports emerged accusing Israel of undermining peace talks by continuing military strikes in Syria and Lebanon, increasing tensions and reducing market confidence in normalization prospects by mid-2026.
Israel intensifies military strikes in southern Syria amid peace talks
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%3%
Israeli drone strikes targeted vehicles and locations in southern Syria and Lebanon, killing civilians and escalating tensions, undermining peace talks and reducing market confidence in normalization by mid-2026.
Syrian trial of former Assad officials begins
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%4%
The high‑profile trial shifted domestic focus inward, further diminishing expectations of external diplomatic moves with Israel.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 jumps to 13%6%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris for a second round of U.S.-mediated negotiations, issuing a joint statement emphasizing respect for Syria's sovereignty and Israel's security, which modestly improved market expectations for a December 2026 diplomatic breakthrough.
EU leaders visit Syria, pledge support for reconstruction
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%3%
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa met Syrian interim President Ahmad al‑Sharaa, offering substantial aid and signaling a broader diplomatic opening that could pave the way for Israel‑Syria talks.
U.S.-mediated Syria-Israel talks resume in Paris aiming for security agreement
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%4%
Syria and Israel resumed U.S.-mediated talks in Paris to reactivate a 1974 disengagement agreement and discuss Israeli withdrawal from buffer zones. This diplomatic effort raised hopes for normalization but progress remained uncertain, causing market fluctuations in probabilities for normalization by mid-2026 and end of 2026.
Market reacts to reports of ongoing indirect talks but no formal normalization between Israel and Syria
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Despite reports of indirect talks and some diplomatic engagement, no official announcements of normalization occurred. Continued Israeli military actions and Syrian domestic opposition kept market confidence low, reflected in price troughs around early May.
Bombing at Homs mosque kills eight and wounds eighteen
December 31, 2026 drops to 8%5%
A terrorist attack on a mosque in Homs heightened security concerns and underscored ongoing instability in Syria, reducing confidence that diplomatic breakthroughs with Israel were imminent.
Israeli‑Syrian diplomatic talks stall after security flare‑up
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%3%
Following the Paris meeting, reports emerged that a renewed Hezbollah‑linked attack in Damascus led both sides to suspend further negotiations, sending the market sharply lower as the prospect of a formal agreement dimmed.
Market confidence drops amid stalled progress and unresolved core issues
December 31, 2026 drops to 9%5%
Despite diplomatic mechanisms in place, lack of official announcements and unresolved disputes over Israeli troop presence and full normalization led to market price declines reflecting skepticism about deal completion.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%3%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks, agreeing to set up a joint communication cell to manage security and explore diplomatic engagement, boosting expectations of normalization.
Syrian government deal with Kurdish fighters unravels amid new clashes and IS prisoner escapes
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
The breakdown of the ceasefire and renewed fighting between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters, along with Islamic State prisoner escapes, further destabilized Syria, diminishing prospects for Israel-Syria diplomatic normalization within 2026.
Israel turns away ship with stolen Ukrainian grain, easing diplomatic tensions
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Israel rejected the Panormitis ship carrying stolen Ukrainian grain, a diplomatic win for Kyiv that helped ease tensions. This event, while peripheral, reflected Israel's responsiveness to international pressure amid complex regional diplomacy.
Market confidence hits low amid stalled talks and unresolved Israeli troop withdrawal
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%2%
Continued lack of progress on key issues such as Israeli withdrawal from Syrian territory and security guarantees led to a sharp decline in market confidence for normalization by June 2026.
Israel turns away ship with stolen Ukrainian grain in win for Kyiv
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%3%
Israel rejected a ship carrying grain stolen from Ukrainian territories, responding to diplomatic pressure from Ukraine. This event reflects Israel's complex regional diplomacy but does not directly affect Israel-Syria normalization prospects, maintaining market skepticism.
Israel turns away ship with stolen Ukrainian grain amid diplomatic row
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Israel rejected a shipment of grain stolen from Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories, responding to Ukrainian diplomatic pressure. While unrelated directly to Israel-Syria relations, this event reflected Israel's complex regional diplomacy and its balancing act amid multiple conflicts, contributing to cautious market sentiment on normalization prospects.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris on security agreement
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks aimed at a security agreement to reduce tensions. They agreed to establish a joint communication cell for coordination on intelligence, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement, marking a tentative step but no formal normalization yet.
Israel rejects allegations over ship with stolen Ukrainian grain amid diplomatic row with Kyiv
Israel faced diplomatic tensions with Ukraine over ships carrying stolen Ukrainian grain docking at Israeli ports. This incident strained Israel's international relations and distracted from regional diplomatic efforts, including with Syria, contributing to market skepticism about normalization prospects.
Israel and Syria agree to establish joint communication cell during Paris talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%4%
During the resumed U.S.-brokered talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to create a joint communication cell to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement, marking a significant but preliminary step toward reducing hostilities without formal diplomatic normalization.
Syria's new leadership supports disarming Hezbollah, aligning interests with Israel
December 31, 2026 rises to 18%4%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly supported disarming Hezbollah and interdicted weapons shipments, showing converging interests with Israel but without translating into normalization or cooperation.
Ukraine summons Israeli envoy over ship with stolen Ukrainian grain at Haifa port
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Ukraine summoned Israel's ambassador to protest the unloading of stolen Ukrainian grain at Haifa port, straining Israel's diplomatic relations and reflecting Israel's complex regional position. While not directly related to Israel-Syria normalization, this event contributed to regional diplomatic tensions and market caution.
Israeli and Syrian interests converge against Hezbollah but normalization efforts stall
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Despite shared interests in countering Hezbollah, deep mutual distrust and ongoing Israeli military actions in Syria prevented cooperation from translating into normalization, reinforcing market pessimism.
Israel and Syria share common fight against Hezbollah but normalization stalled
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly supported disarming Hezbollah, aligning interests with Israel. However, efforts to bridge relations and normalize ties stalled, reflecting ongoing mistrust and unresolved issues despite shared security concerns.
Ukraine warns Israel over ship with stolen grain, straining relations
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%2%
Ukraine summoned the Israeli ambassador to protest a ship carrying stolen Ukrainian grain docking in Haifa, causing diplomatic tension. While unrelated directly to Israel-Syria normalization, this event contributed to regional diplomatic complexities affecting market sentiment.
Syrian foreign minister hints at normalization during press conference
During a press briefing, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shibani reiterated that Syria seeks full sovereignty and hinted that normalization with Israel could be part of future negotiations, tempering the earlier decline and stabilising the market near the low point.
Syrian President publicly supports disarming Hezbollah, aligning interests with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa declared support for Lebanon's efforts to disarm Hezbollah, an adversary shared with Israel. This shift in Syria's stance represents a convergence of interests but has not yet translated into formal cooperation or normalization with Israel.
Israel and Syria’s Shared Fight Against Hezbollah Highlights Stalled Normalization
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa declared support for disarming Hezbollah, aligning interests with Israel against a common enemy. However, efforts to bridge gaps and normalize relations have stalled due to mutual distrust and ongoing military tensions, dampening market optimism.
Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa declares support for disarming Hezbollah
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly supported Lebanon's efforts to disarm Hezbollah, marking a shift from previous Syrian support for the group. This convergence of interests with Israel against Hezbollah suggested potential for cooperation but did not translate into normalization, reflecting ongoing tensions and stalled efforts.
U.S.-mediated Israel‑Syria talks resume in Paris
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%3%
AP reported that Israeli and Syrian delegations met in Paris to restart security talks, prompting a short rally in the market as traders priced in a possible path to formal relations.
Israeli Foreign Minister rejects Ukrainian allegations over stolen grain ship
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Tensions between Israel and Ukraine rose over allegations of stolen Ukrainian grain being unloaded in Israel. While unrelated directly to Israel-Syria relations, this incident reflects Israel's complex regional diplomatic challenges, contributing to a cautious market outlook on normalization prospects.
Analysis highlights stalled Israel-Syria rapprochement despite shared interests
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
A Foreign Policy article noted that despite converging interests against Hezbollah, efforts to bridge gaps between Israel and Syria have stalled, reflecting ongoing mistrust and lack of cooperation. This reinforced market skepticism about normalization prospects, contributing to low prices.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar Rejects Ukrainian Grain Ship Allegations
Israel rejected Ukrainian accusations over a grain ship, which could have damaged bilateral relations. This incident occurred during a period of heightened diplomatic sensitivity.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa Hints at Israeli Normalization
Sharaa publicly hinted at normalization with Israel, indicating a potential shift in Syrian policy. However, this was not followed by concrete steps toward diplomatic relations.
Syrian Foreign Minister confirms stalled normalization efforts with Israel
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani acknowledged that efforts to normalize relations with Israel have stalled, reflecting persistent mistrust and military tensions, which kept market prices near lows.
Israeli FM rejects Ukraine’s allegations over stolen grain ship, straining relations
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%2%
Ukraine accused Israel of allowing ships carrying stolen Ukrainian grain to dock in Haifa, leading to diplomatic tensions. Israeli FM rejected the allegations publicly, reflecting complex regional relations but unrelated to Israel-Syria normalization.
Ukraine warns Israel of diplomatic crisis over stolen grain ship at Haifa port
Ukraine summoned the Israeli ambassador to protest Israel allowing ships carrying stolen Ukrainian grain to dock, straining Israel's regional relations and reflecting Israel's complex regional position. This incident underscored Israel's diplomatic challenges, indirectly affecting perceptions of its willingness to normalize relations with neighbors like Syria.
EU leaders visit Syria and pledge €620 million aid
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa met Syrian interim President Ahmad al‑Sharaa, signaling Syria’s growing international acceptance and indirectly supporting a regional diplomatic thaw that nudged the December‑31 price slightly higher.
Joint Israel‑Syria communication cell established under U.S. supervision
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
The joint communication cell was presented as a concrete step toward de‑escalation, yet its limited scope reinforced expectations that full diplomatic ties were still distant, pushing both outcome prices down further.
Syrian foreign minister hints at possible Israel normalization
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
In a televised interview, Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shaibani suggested that Damascus was open to talks with Israel, sparking brief market optimism that a diplomatic breakthrough might be forthcoming.
Visiting EU leaders pledge to support Syria's recovery after years of civil war
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
EU leaders visited Syria and pledged financial support for reconstruction, signaling Syria's improving international relations post-civil war. This development suggested a more stable Syrian government potentially open to diplomatic normalization, slightly influencing market optimism.
Syria’s interim president calls for ceasefire amid renewed clashes
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%4%
Following renewed fighting between Syrian forces and Kurdish fighters, President al‑Sharaa announced a ceasefire, underscoring internal security challenges and reducing the likelihood of a swift diplomatic opening with Israel, nudging the market lower.
Syrian foreign minister says Israel‑Syria talks have stalled
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%1%
The same stall announcement also pushed down the June 30 2026 outcome, which fell from 5 % to 4 % as traders reassessed the likelihood of an earlier normalization date.
U.S. mediates second round of Israel-Lebanon talks on Hezbollah cease-fire
The U.S. hosted a second round of talks between Israel and Lebanon aimed at extending a cease-fire and launching negotiations for peace. While not directly involving Syria, these talks influenced regional dynamics and underscored the complexity of achieving broader normalization including with Syria, as Hezbollah opposed agreements.
Syrian foreign minister says Israel‑Syria talks have stalled
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%4%
A Syrian Foreign Ministry tweet on April 23 reported that talks had stalled, undercutting the optimism from the previous day and prompting a sharp drop in market confidence for both outcomes.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%3%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focusing on security, intelligence sharing, and diplomatic engagement. The agreement to establish a joint communication cell indicated progress but fell short of official normalization, leading to modest market reactions.
Second round of U.S.-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks aims to extend cease-fire
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%4%
The U.S. hosted a second round of talks between Israel and Lebanon to extend a cease-fire amid ongoing conflict with Hezbollah. The talks showed continued U.S. diplomatic engagement in the region but no direct impact on Israel-Syria normalization.
U.S.-mediated Israel‑Syria talks resume in Paris
The Associated Press reported that Israeli and Syrian delegations met in Paris to discuss a security agreement and the re‑activation of the 1974 disengagement buffer. The diplomatic breakthrough lifted market optimism, causing a short‑term rise in the Yes price for both outcomes.
U.S.-mediated Israel‑Syria talks resume in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
U.S. officials announced that Israeli and Syrian delegations met in Paris to discuss a security pact, raising expectations for a diplomatic breakthrough and temporarily stabilising prices before the news of a deadlock emerged.
Second round of U.S.-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks held amid Hezbollah opposition
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%5%
The U.S. hosted a second round of talks between Israel and Lebanon aimed at extending a cease-fire with Hezbollah, which opposed the talks. Continued Israeli strikes and Hezbollah's resistance underscored regional instability, indirectly affecting Israel-Syria normalization prospects by highlighting broader security challenges.
Syrian foreign minister hints at possible normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
In a televised interview, Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shaibani suggested that talks on normalising relations with Israel were under consideration, briefly lifting market odds before the optimism faded amid no concrete steps.
U.S. brokers first direct Israel-Lebanon talks in decades amid ceasefire
Following intense conflict involving Hezbollah, the U.S. facilitated the first direct diplomatic talks between Israel and Lebanon in decades, aiming to extend ceasefire and open negotiations. While not directly involving Syria, this regional diplomatic activity influenced perceptions of Middle East stability and normalization prospects.
Syrian interim president Al‑Sharaa meets Turkish foreign minister in Istanbul
December 31, 2026 drops to 9%5%
The meeting focused on border security and did not address diplomatic relations with Israel, reinforcing market sentiment that normalization was unlikely.
Lebanon and Israel hold first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%2%
Lebanon and Israel held direct talks brokered by the U.S., marking a historic step though Hezbollah opposed the talks. This development influenced regional dynamics but did not directly advance Israel-Syria normalization, contributing to market uncertainty.
Israel-Lebanon talks highlight challenges for regional peace amid ongoing conflict
Analysis of Israel-Lebanon talks emphasized the political and military challenges Israel faces, including its occupation of southern Lebanon and targeting beyond Hezbollah. This situation reflects the broader regional instability that hinders progress on Israel-Syria normalization.
Israel and Syria hold second round of U.S.-mediated talks in Paris with limited progress
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
In April 2026, Israel and Syria resumed talks in Paris focusing on security and intelligence coordination but without any official announcement of diplomatic normalization. The talks aimed to prevent misunderstandings but did not resolve core issues, keeping market prices low.
U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon talks begin amid ongoing regional conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
The U.S. facilitated direct talks between Israel and Lebanon to address ceasefire and security issues, highlighting ongoing regional instability that complicates Israel-Syria normalization prospects. Market prices continued to decline.
Clashes erupt between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters amid stalled merger talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Violent clashes in northern Syria between government forces and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces undermined stability and complicated diplomatic progress, reducing market confidence in near-term normalization between Israel and Syria.
Syria's Interior Ministry announces thwarting of Hezbollah sabotage plot in Quneitra
December 31, 2026 drops to 4%7%
Syrian authorities reported thwarting a Hezbollah-orchestrated sabotage plot in Quneitra province, demonstrating ongoing security coordination and regional tensions. This military development may have contributed to market volatility.
Syria thwarts Hezbollah-linked sabotage plot in Quneitra province
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Syria announced it foiled a Hezbollah-linked sabotage plot near the Israeli border, highlighting ongoing security tensions that complicate normalization efforts and dampen market enthusiasm.
Syria says it foiled Hezbollah sabotage plot in Quneitra
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%4%
Syria’s Interior Ministry announced it had stopped a Hezbollah‑linked cell planning a rocket attack from a disguised civilian vehicle. The incident highlighted ongoing security tensions and reduced market optimism that Israel and Syria were moving toward diplomatic ties.
Syria’s Interior Ministry reports thwarting Hezbollah sabotage plot in Quneitra
The Syrian interior ministry announced the disruption of a Hezbollah‑linked sabotage operation near the Israeli‑controlled Golan Heights. The security‑focused news reinforced the perception of ongoing hostility, pushing the Yes price lower for both outcomes.
Syria thwarts Hezbollah sabotage plots near Israeli border
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Syrian authorities announced the disruption of Hezbollah-linked sabotage plots in Quneitra province and Damascus, signaling Syria's new stance against Hezbollah and aligning interests with Israel. This development suggested a potential opening for improved relations but did not translate into formal diplomatic progress, contributing to market uncertainty.
Israel approves $334 million plan to expand civilian settlements in occupied Golan Heights
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%4%
Israel's government approved a significant plan to transfer thousands of civilians into the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, signaling continued occupation and undermining prospects for normalization, which negatively impacted market confidence.
US envoy praises Syrian regime's conciliatory approach, predicts normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 rises to 18%2%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack praised Syria's new government for its approach toward Israel and predicted that normalization and a non-aggression agreement would be reached sooner with Syria than Lebanon, providing some market support.
US envoy praises Syrian regime's conciliatory approach, predicts normalization with Israel
June 30, 2026 rises to 7%1%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack praised Syria's new government for its conciliatory stance toward Israel and predicted that normalization and a non-aggression agreement would be reached sooner than with Lebanon. This statement briefly boosted market sentiment but did not lead to immediate progress.
US envoy predicts eventual normalization between Israel and Syria
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack expressed optimism that Israel and Syria would soon reach a non-aggression and normalization agreement, despite current setbacks. This statement briefly boosted market expectations for normalization by suggesting diplomatic progress was still possible.
US envoy predicts Israel-Syria normalization soon amid praise for Syrian conciliatory approach
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
US Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack praised Syria's conciliatory approach and predicted normalization with Israel soon, providing a temporary boost to market optimism despite ongoing challenges.
US envoy predicts Israel-Syria normalization soon despite current setbacks
June 30, 2026 rises to 11%3%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack praised Syria's conciliatory approach and predicted normalization with Israel would occur sooner than with Lebanon, providing some market support despite ongoing challenges and stalled talks.
US Envoy Predicts Normalization Agreement With Syria Is Still Possible
December 31, 2026 rises to 18%4%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack praised the new Syrian regime's conciliatory approach and predicted that Israel and Syria would eventually agree to a non-aggression and normalization agreement, temporarily boosting market sentiment.
US envoy praises Syrian conciliatory approach, predicts normalization possible
December 31, 2026 rises to 18%2%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack praised Syria's conciliatory stance toward Israel and predicted normalization would occur sooner with Syria than Lebanon, providing some optimism but also highlighting ongoing challenges, which caused minor positive price movement.
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack Admits Israel-Syria Normalization Talks Have Evaporated Into a 'Time-Out'
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack acknowledged at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum that talks toward a non-aggression and normalization agreement between Israel and Syria had temporarily evaporated due to regional conflicts.
US Envoy Tom Barrack says Israel-Syria non-aggression talks have evaporated
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack admitted that talks toward a non-aggression agreement between Israel and Syria had evaporated due to regional hostilities, though he predicted they would eventually reach an agreement.
U.S. envoy Tom Barrack predicts normalization with Syria sooner than Lebanon
U.S. Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack expressed optimism about reaching a non-aggression and normalization agreement with Syria, supporting market hopes despite ongoing challenges.
US envoy Tom Barrack highlights selective mediation in Syria-Israel talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack explained that US mediation in Syria-Israel negotiations is selective and conditional, with significant obstacles including Israeli military presence in Syria. His remarks underscored the complexity and slow progress of talks, contributing to market uncertainty.
U.S. envoy says normalization with Syria is "likely" and foresees a non‑aggression pact
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%3%
U.S. Special Envoy Tom Barrack, speaking at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, predicted that a non‑aggression and normalization agreement with Syria would be reached soon. The forward‑looking comment nudged the market upward for the December‑2026 outcome, contributing to the climb from 11 % to 14 % between 2026‑05‑20 and 2026‑05‑29.
US Envoy Admits Israel-Syria Non-Aggression Talks Have Evaporated
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack confirmed that talks toward a non-aggression agreement between Israel and Syria had evaporated, leading to a 'time-out' in active negotiations.
Syria's President Al-Sharaa attends Antalya Diplomacy Forum
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa participated in a major diplomacy forum in Turkey, indicating continued efforts to engage with international actors and potentially Israel.
US envoy Tom Barrack predicts normalization with Syria sooner than Lebanon
June 30, 2026 rises to 7%4%
US Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack praised the Syrian regime's conciliatory approach and predicted normalization with Syria would occur sooner than with Lebanon, providing some market optimism despite ongoing challenges.
US Envoy Tom Barrack Admits Israel-Syria Normalization Talks are on a 'Time-Out'
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack acknowledged that active negotiations toward a non-aggression agreement had evaporated due to regional conflicts, putting diplomatic progress on hold.
US envoy Tom Barrack: Syria normalization 'sooner than Lebanon' at Antalya forum
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%7%
US Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack predicted normalization with Syria would occur sooner than with Lebanon, though he acknowledged talks were paused due to regional instability.
US envoy Tom Barrack predicts normalization with Syria sooner than Lebanon
US Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack praised Syria's conciliatory approach and predicted normalization with Syria would occur sooner than with Lebanon, providing some market support despite ongoing challenges.
US Envoy Tom Barrack Admits Israel-Syria Talks are on a 'Time-Out' Due to Regional War
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%2%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack stated that talks toward a non-aggression agreement between Israel and Syria had evaporated and were on a 'time-out' due to broader regional conflicts, dampening hopes for a near-term deal.
US envoy Tom Barrack praises Syrian regime's conciliatory approach, predicts normalization soon
June 30, 2026 rises to 9%3%
US Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack publicly praised Syria's conciliatory stance and predicted that Israel and Syria would soon agree to normalize relations, temporarily boosting market confidence in a near-term deal.
Israeli airstrikes target Syrian military sites in response to Druze massacres
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%4%
Israel conducted airstrikes on Syrian military headquarters and other sites following reports of massacres against the Druze population in southern Syria. This military escalation underscored ongoing hostilities and undermined prospects for normalization, leading to a drop in market prices.
Israel approves $334 million development plan for Golan Heights, signaling continued control
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%5%
Israel's government approved a major development plan to expand housing and infrastructure in the Golan Heights, reinforcing its hold on the territory despite international non-recognition. This move underscored Israel's intention to maintain control over the region, complicating prospects for Syrian demands and normalization.
Lebanon and Israel agree to 10-day cease-fire amid conflict with Hezbollah
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
A cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon began on April 16, brokered by the U.S., creating a moment of regional diplomatic activity. While this primarily involved Lebanon and Hezbollah, it influenced regional dynamics affecting Israel-Syria relations and normalization prospects.
Syrian President al-Sharaa says Israel refused normalization at last minute
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Al-Sharaa claimed that Syria reached good points in talks but Israel changed its mind at the last minute, indicating stalled negotiations and no formal diplomatic relations established.
Israel and Lebanon hold second round of U.S.-mediated talks to extend ceasefire
The U.S. hosted a second round of ambassador-level talks between Israel and Lebanon to extend a ceasefire and discuss broader peace negotiations. Hezbollah opposed the talks, underscoring ongoing regional tensions that complicate broader normalization efforts including with Syria.
Israel and Lebanon hold second round of U.S.-mediated talks on ceasefire extension
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
The U.S. hosted a second round of talks between Israel and Lebanon to extend the ceasefire, with ongoing Israeli strikes and Hezbollah attacks continuing. This sustained regional instability contributed to market skepticism about Israel-Syria normalization in the near term.
U.S. brokers first direct diplomatic talks between Israel and Lebanon
December 31, 2026 drops to 19%9%
The United States facilitated the first direct diplomatic talks in decades between Israel and Lebanon, a neighboring country involved in regional conflicts. While this was a significant diplomatic step, it did not involve Syria and did not result in normalization between Israel and Syria, contributing to market skepticism.
Israel and Lebanon hold rare direct peace talks in Washington
The Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors met in Washington under U.S. auspices to outline a framework for peace, shifting diplomatic focus toward Lebanon and highlighting the complex regional dynamics.
Israel clears final hurdle for controversial West Bank settlement project
June 30, 2026 drops to 2%6%
The Israeli government approved the tender for the E1 settlement project near Jerusalem, a move seen as contrary to peace‑building and likely to sour any normalization talks with Syria, causing the June‑30 outcome price to plunge.
U.S. proposes joint Israel-Syria economic cooperation zone
December 31, 2026 drops to 4%8%
The Trump administration proposed an economic cooperation plan including a joint economic zone and infrastructure projects, signaling broader diplomatic engagement beyond security.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks on a security agreement, agreeing to set up a joint communication cell. The breakthrough raised hopes of formal diplomatic ties, pushing the market up modestly.
Israel approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%5%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a historic gas deal with Egypt, improving Israel’s regional economic ties and shifting diplomatic focus toward energy cooperation rather than a peace pact with Syria, contributing to further price declines.
Syria reopens airspace amid regional tensions
December 31, 2026 rises to 17%1%
Syria reopened its airspace after closure due to regional hostilities, while Israel continued military activities in southern Syria citing national security, underscoring ongoing tensions that hinder normalization prospects.
Syria reopens airspace amid ongoing regional hostilities
Syria reopened its airspace, signaling some normalization of state functions despite ongoing Israeli military activity in southern Syria, which continues to pose challenges to stability.
U.S. brokers ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, indirectly affecting regional dynamics
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%4%
The U.S. brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which while not directly involving Syria, influenced regional security calculations and Israel's military focus, indirectly impacting Israel-Syria relations and market sentiment on normalization prospects.
Israel and Lebanon begin first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington
Lebanon and Israel held their first direct talks in decades, mediated by the U.S., aiming to address ceasefire and peace issues amid ongoing conflict with Hezbollah. This development highlighted regional diplomatic efforts but did not directly advance Israel-Syria normalization, reflecting the complex regional environment.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 rises to 17%1%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks aimed at a security agreement to reduce tensions, agreeing to establish a joint communication cell for coordination. However, Syria prioritized Israeli withdrawal to pre-December 2024 lines, while Israel emphasized security and protection of its citizens and the Druze minority. This indicated progress in dialogue but no formal diplomatic normalization.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar confirms high-level talks with Turkey on Syria to prevent conflict flare-ups
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%4%
Israeli FM Gideon Saar revealed meetings with Turkish officials aimed at managing tensions in Syria, emphasizing limited security cooperation rather than political normalization. This indicated ongoing regional complexities and limited progress toward Israel-Syria normalization, contributing to market price declines.
Israel clears final hurdle for controversial West Bank settlement project near Jerusalem
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
The Israeli government approved a tender for the E1 settlement project, reviving a long‑frozen plan and raising concerns that settlement expansion would hinder any diplomatic breakthrough with Syria, causing the market to fall.
U.S‑mediated Israel‑Syria security talks resume in Paris
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
The announcement that Syrian and Israeli delegations would meet in Paris under U.S. mediation revived hopes of a security pact, but analysts viewed the talks as focused on buffer‑zone issues rather than full diplomatic recognition, prompting a modest price drop.
Syrian and Israeli officials resume U.S.-mediated talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%5%
Officials from Syria and Israel met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks aiming to reach a security agreement to defuse tensions. They agreed to establish a joint communication cell for coordination, but no formal normalization was announced, reflecting cautious progress.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focused on a security agreement to defuse tensions, agreeing to establish a joint communication cell for coordination under U.S. supervision. This marked a significant step toward potential normalization but fell short of official diplomatic relations.
Syrian President al-Sharaa States Israel Backed Out of Normalization at Last Minute
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%4%
During a visit to London, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa revealed that direct and indirect negotiations had reached good points, but Israel changed its mind at the last minute, dampening immediate normalization prospects.
Syria’s president says Israel backed out of normalization talks at the last minute
June 30, 2026 dips to 7%2%
During a visit to London, Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa told reporters that Syria had tried to normalize relations with Israel but that Israel “changed its mind at the last minute.” The admission that talks had collapsed caused the market’s Yes odds to fall sharply, driving the June‑2026 price from 9 % to 7 % in the days that followed.
Syrian President Al-Sharaa says Israel refused normalization at last minute
June 30, 2026 drops to 11%5%
During a UK visit, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that Syria attempted to normalize relations with Israel but Israel changed its mind at the last minute, signaling a setback in diplomatic progress and reducing market optimism for near-term normalization.
Ongoing Israeli airstrikes and incursions in southern Syria continue
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%7%
Despite talks, Israel continued airstrikes on Syrian military facilities and incursions outside buffer zones, maintaining tensions and undermining prospects for normalization. This contributed to market declines in the probability of normalization by the end of 2026.
Israel intensifies military operations against Iran, impacting regional dynamics
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
Israel's ongoing military campaign against Iran and its proxies, including in Syria, heightened regional tensions and distrust, further complicating normalization efforts with Syria and depressing market confidence.
Al-Sharaa says normalization with Israel failed after last-minute Israeli change
June 30, 2026 drops to 4%10%
During a UK visit, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that his government's attempt to normalize relations with Israel failed due to Israel changing its mind at the last minute.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa Announces Collapse of Normalization Talks With Israel
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
During a visit to London, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa revealed that direct and indirect negotiations with Israel had reached advanced stages but ultimately collapsed because Israel backed out at the last minute.
Syrian President al-Sharaa says Israel backed out of normalization talks last minute
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
During a UK visit, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that despite progress, Israel changed its mind at the last minute, undermining normalization prospects and causing market prices to decline.
Syrian President al-Sharaa states normalization attempt with Israel failed
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly declared that efforts to normalize relations with Israel were unsuccessful, dampening market expectations for official normalization by mid-2026.
Syrian President Al-Sharaa: Israel normalization attempts 'without success' at UK visit
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated during a UK visit that his government's efforts to normalize with Israel failed due to Israel changing its position at the last minute.
Syrian President Al-Sharaa says Israel normalization attempt failed
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that his government's efforts to normalize relations with Israel were unsuccessful, with Israel changing its mind at the last minute despite reaching good points.
Syria's President Al-Sharaa says Israel changed its mind at last minute
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that despite reaching good points, Israel withdrew from diplomatic talks at the last minute, signaling a setback for normalization efforts.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa states normalization attempts with Israel failed
December 31, 2026 drops to 15%6%
During a visit to the UK on March 31, 2026, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly declared that efforts to normalize relations with Israel were unsuccessful, confirming market expectations of no formal diplomatic ties by the end of 2026.
No official Israel-Syria normalization announcement as talks remain inconclusive
By late March 2026, no official announcement of diplomatic relations establishment occurred despite ongoing talks and U.S. mediation, leading to market prices dropping to historic lows for both June and December 2026 outcomes.
Israel and Syria Resume U.S.-Brokered Talks in Paris on Security Agreement
The resumption of U.S.-mediated talks in Paris focused on a security agreement, including a joint communication cell for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation. This represented a significant diplomatic step but did not result in normalized relations.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focusing on security and diplomatic coordination, including establishing a joint communication cell. This was a significant diplomatic engagement but did not result in official normalization of relations, leading to some market optimism but no resolution.
U.S.-mediated Israel‑Syria talks resume in Paris, both sides set modest goals
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
AP reported that Israeli and Syrian delegations met in Paris to discuss a security agreement, but the limited agenda and lack of concrete timelines kept market expectations low, maintaining the downward trend.
Israeli Foreign Minister states war goal to remove Iran threats, signaling ongoing regional conflict
December 31, 2026 drops to 15%8%
In March 2026, Israeli officials emphasized ongoing military objectives against Iran and its proxies, including in Syria, indicating continued instability and undermining prospects for normalization with Syria. This contributed to low market confidence in normalization by mid-2026.
U.S. encourages Syria to consider sending forces into eastern Lebanon to help disarm Hezbollah
December 31, 2026 dips to 15%3%
Reuters reported that the U.S. pushed Syria to send forces into eastern Lebanon to help disarm Hezbollah, reflecting shifting regional dynamics and increased Israeli military activity in southern Syria.
U.S. Urges Syria to Act Against Hezbollah, Damascus Hesitant
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%2%
The U.S. encouraged Syria to send forces into eastern Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah, but Syria's reluctance highlighted ongoing regional complexities and cautious Syrian policy, dampening market optimism for near-term normalization with Israel.
Israel and Syria agree to establish joint communication cell in Paris talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 24%11%
In a significant diplomatic development, Israel and Syria agreed to create a joint communication cell for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, signaling progress but falling short of full normalization, causing a modest market uptick.
EU leaders visit Syria, pledge €620 million aid
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa met interim President Ahmad al‑Sharaa in Damascus, announcing a major aid package. The visit highlighted Syria’s growing openness to the West, shifting attention away from Israel‑Syria normalization and pulling the market down.
Syrian Foreign Minister reports stalled efforts to normalize with Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%10%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani stated that efforts to bridge gaps with Israel have stalled, reflecting deep mistrust and ongoing military tensions, which contributed to the market's sharp decline in normalization probability.
US, Israel, Syria issue joint statement on productive talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%4%
A trilateral statement reaffirmed commitment to dialogue and cooperation but did not announce formal diplomatic relations, reflecting ongoing negotiations without resolution and contributing to market pessimism.
Israel and Syria’s shared fight against Hezbollah highlights tentative cooperation
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly supported disarming Hezbollah, a common adversary of Israel and Syria, indicating some convergence of interests. However, efforts to bridge gaps stalled, maintaining skepticism about full normalization.
Escalation between Hezbollah and Israel amid U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran
December 31, 2026 rises to 24%3%
Hezbollah fired at Israel supporting Tehran, prompting Israeli strikes in Lebanon, increasing regional tensions. The U.S. encouraged Syria to disarm Hezbollah, but Damascus hesitated, reflecting Syria's cautious stance and complicating normalization prospects.
Israeli forces seize Hamas ally in southern Lebanon amid ongoing tensions
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Israeli military operations in Lebanon targeting Hamas allies and Hezbollah continued, reflecting ongoing regional instability and security concerns that reduce likelihood of Israel-Syria normalization by mid-2026.
Syrian president publicly supports Lebanon’s Hezbollah disarmament, signals shift away from Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 16%5%
Al Arabiya covered President al‑Sharaa’s declaration backing Lebanon’s effort to disarm Hezbollah, a move seen as aligning Syria with Israel’s security goals but not translating into diplomatic progress, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa declares support for disarming Hezbollah alongside Lebanon and Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%6%
Syria's new leadership publicly supported Lebanon's efforts to disarm Hezbollah, an adversary shared with Israel, signaling a potential convergence of interests. However, this did not translate into direct cooperation or normalization, reflecting ongoing mistrust and stalled progress in relations.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa declares support for Lebanon's Hezbollah disarmament
June 30, 2026 plunges to 6%44%
Sharaa publicly supported Lebanon's effort to disarm Hezbollah, a shared interest with Israel. This positive development was noted but did not lead to normalization.
Renewed optimism as US-backed talks continue with focus on economic cooperation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 26%6%
US mediation helped sustain talks focusing on economic ties and regional stability, briefly boosting market confidence despite unresolved core issues.
Syrian government announces ceasefire with Kurdish forces in Aleppo
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%3%
A brief ceasefire was declared, offering a fleeting hope that could explain a short‑term price uptick, but the lack of a lasting agreement quickly reversed the market move.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris, agree to joint communication cell
December 31, 2026 jumps to 23%9%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris and issued a joint statement establishing a communication cell to coordinate intelligence, de‑escalation and commercial opportunities, signalling a concrete step toward normalisation and pushing the market higher.
Continued diplomatic dialogue with no breakthrough on normalization
December 31, 2026 jumps to 22%6%
Israel and Syria continued talks focusing on security and economic cooperation, but Syria's refusal to establish full diplomatic relations without Israeli withdrawal kept market confidence low.
Israel continues military operations in Syria amid distrust of new Syrian leadership
December 31, 2026 jumps to 24%10%
Israel maintained military strikes and control in southern Syria, reflecting ongoing distrust of Syria’s interim government and complicating normalization prospects. This sustained tension contributed to market declines in early 2026.
Market briefly rebounds on reports of ongoing US-mediated talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 25%14%
Market prices for normalization temporarily increased due to reports of continued US-brokered discussions and hopes for progress, though no concrete breakthroughs were announced.
No breakthrough in Israel-Syria relations as core issues remain unresolved
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%4%
Despite ongoing US-mediated talks and the joint communication mechanism, Syria demands Israeli troop withdrawal from territories seized after December 2024, and full diplomatic relations remain off the table, leading to market price declines.
State Department reaffirms U.S. supervision of Israel‑Syria communication cell
June 30, 2026 dips to 7%2%
The State Department reiterated that the communication cell would remain “under U.S. supervision” and noted that no timeline for troop withdrawal had been agreed, keeping market sentiment bearish toward full normalization and sustaining the low Yes probabilities.
Lebanon and Israel hold first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington
December 31, 2026 jumps to 23%7%
Lebanon and Israel held direct talks brokered by the U.S. following conflict with Hezbollah, signaling a regional shift toward dialogue but not normalization with Syria. This event reflected broader regional diplomatic efforts but did not directly advance Israel-Syria normalization, contributing to market uncertainty.
Syrian defense ministry announces ceasefire in Aleppo amid stalled Israel talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 20%6%
Syria’s defense ministry declared a ceasefire in Aleppo, a modest confidence‑building step, but without any parallel progress on Israel‑Syria normalisation, the market saw a modest rebound in price for the December‑2026 outcome.
U.S. and Israel begin war against Iran, Syria sees new regional dynamics
Israel launched airstrikes on Iran-backed militias in Syria following U.S.-Israeli offensive against Iran, prompting Syria to reassess its regional position.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris to ease tensions
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%5%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focusing on respect for Syria's sovereignty and Israel's security, agreeing to establish a joint communication cell for coordination. This raised hopes for normalization but did not include official diplomatic relations, leading to some market optimism but no resolution.
Syrian FM more outspoken about Israel than in past year
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani increased public statements on Israel, indicating Syria's shift toward pragmatism and reduced emphasis on Golan Heights disputes.
Syria’s interim president announces ceasefire with Kurdish forces in Aleppo
The ceasefire announcement was intended to stabilize northern Syria but did not involve Israel, leaving the broader Israel‑Syria normalization question unchanged and contributing to continued price weakness.
Syrian Foreign Minister signals possible security negotiations with Israel
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%3%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani indicated that negotiations with Israel focused on security arrangements excluding the Golan Heights, suggesting a pragmatic approach to normalization. This raised market hopes for progress toward normalization by the end of 2026.
Syrian Government and Kurdish Forces Sign Ceasefire Agreement
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%3%
The ceasefire between Syrian President al-Sharaa and Kurdish leader Mazloum Abdi marked a significant step toward internal Syrian stability, a prerequisite for advancing normalization with Israel. This development briefly increased market confidence in normalization prospects by late 2026.
Syrian Foreign Minister Clarifies Talks With Israel Aim to Stop Military Interference, Not Accept Imposed Terms
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%7%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani stated that discussions with Israel are strictly aimed at ending Israeli military incursions and airstrikes in southern Syria, dampening hopes for immediate full diplomatic normalization.
Syria admits security deal with Israel won't secure Golan Heights liberation
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%8%
Syrian Foreign Minister Al-Shaibani acknowledged talks with Israel focus on ending military interference, signaling a pragmatic shift toward normalization despite unresolved Golan Heights dispute.
Syrian president’s overtures to Israel face renewed criticism
December 31, 2026 dips to 4%4%
Foreign Policy reported on Feb 14 2026 that Sharaa’s earlier hints at normalization were met with criticism from regional actors, reinforcing the view that a deal was unlikely and pushing prices lower.
Clashes erupt in Aleppo after SDF‑government tensions
December 31, 2026 drops to 13%6%
Violent confrontations in Aleppo between Syrian forces and SDF fighters highlighted ongoing instability, further eroding confidence in any near‑term Israel‑Syria diplomatic breakthrough.
Market hits lowest confidence in normalization amid ongoing military strikes and political resistance
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%10%
By mid-February 2026, market prices for normalization reached lows (11% for December 31, 2026), reflecting persistent Israeli military actions in Syria, Syrian political resistance, and lack of progress in talks, signaling diminished chances of normalization soon.
U.S. defense analysts argue Israel’s military edge reduces incentive for diplomatic deals
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
War on the Rocks argued that Israel’s qualitative military edge, bolstered by U.S. aid, lessens its need for a Syrian peace deal, prompting the market to slide to its lowest point in February.
Market dips amid reports of Israeli military activity in southern Syria
December 31, 2026 drops to 13%8%
Continued Israeli military operations in southern Syria raised tensions and cast doubt on the prospects for normalization, contributing to a market price trough.
U.S. debate over guaranteeing Israel’s qualitative military edge intensifies
A War on the Rocks analysis highlighted growing U.S. skepticism about continued military aid to Israel, suggesting a shift that could reduce Israel’s leverage in regional diplomatic talks, including with Syria, further lowering market confidence.
US‑Saudi talks fail to produce Israel normalization roadmap
June 30, 2026 drops to 5%6%
War on the Rocks noted on Feb 13 2026 that a high‑level US‑Saudi meeting produced no concrete steps toward Israel‑Saudi or Israel‑Syria normalization, deepening market doubts.
Syria insists on Israeli withdrawal before strategic progress possible
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%12%
A Syrian official stated that moving forward on strategic files with Israel is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal, reinforcing barriers to normalization and pushing market prices lower.
Market confidence dips amid ongoing Israeli military actions and Syrian reluctance
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%11%
Continued Israeli military operations in Syria and Syria's refusal to engage in full normalization led to a sharp drop in market prices, reflecting diminished expectations for a deal by mid-2026.
Hezbollah‑Israel border clashes raise security concerns, dampening normalization hopes
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%4%
Following renewed Hezbollah rocket fire and Israeli retaliation reported on Feb 13 2026, regional security tensions rose, reducing confidence in any near‑term Israel‑Syria diplomatic breakthrough and driving both market prices to their lowest points.
UN reports cease‑fire breach in Golan Heights
December 31, 2026 jumps to 20%6%
UN observers reported a cease‑fire breach in the Golan Heights, reigniting fears of renewed hostilities and prompting a modest bounce in the market’s Yes probability for the later December‑2026 outcome as some traders speculated a security crisis might force a formal diplomatic settlement.
Israel’s far‑right government expands settlement policy
December 31, 2026 dips to 15%4%
Further settlement expansion announcements by Israel’s far‑right coalition signaled a continued focus on territorial issues rather than diplomatic outreach to Syria, pushing prices lower.
Clashes between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters continue amid stalled talks
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Renewed clashes and failure to merge Kurdish forces with Syrian army further diminished prospects for normalization, causing market prices for both June 30 and December 31, 2026 outcomes to fall to historic lows.
EU leaders pledge support for Syria’s recovery post-civil war
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%11%
European Union officials visited Syria and pledged financial aid for reconstruction, signaling Syria’s improving relations with the West but not directly with Israel. This nuanced development did not significantly boost market expectations for Israel-Syria normalization by the end of 2026.
Syrian Foreign Minister reports stalled Israeli-Syrian rapprochement efforts
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani stated that efforts to bridge gaps with Israel have stalled, reflecting deep mistrust and ongoing military tensions. This news further reduced market confidence in normalization by mid-2026 and end-2026.
U.S.‑brokered Israel‑Syria talks in Paris fail to produce agreement
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%10%
AP reported on Feb 11 2026 that Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under U.S. mediation but left without a concrete security accord, reinforcing market pessimism and coinciding with the steep price decline from 21 % to 11 % for the December‑31 outcome.
U.S. military aid to Israel escalates but no Israeli concessions on Syria normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%5%
U.S. military support to Israel increased, reinforcing Israel's military edge. However, Israel showed no intent to make political concessions in Syria, continuing military operations and occupation, which reduced market confidence in normalization prospects.
Analysis questions effectiveness of Israel's military edge for peace
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
Experts noted that despite Israel's military dominance, there was no corresponding political progress toward peace or normalization with neighbors including Syria, reflecting entrenched positions and reducing market optimism.
Analysis questions effectiveness of U.S. military aid in fostering Israeli peace concessions
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%11%
A critical analysis highlighted that despite Israel's military edge and U.S. support, there is no Israeli intent to make concessions, reducing the likelihood of normalization with Syria or other neighbors in the near term.
Hezbollah official states group will not abide by Lebanon-Israel talks agreements
December 31, 2026 drops to 13%8%
Hezbollah's rejection of any agreements from Lebanon-Israel talks signaled continued regional hostility and instability, indirectly affecting Syria-Israel normalization prospects and contributing to market pessimism.
U.S. House Hearing Highlights Improved Israel-Syria Security Coordination
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
A U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing discussed the establishment of a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation between Israel and Syria, reflecting progress in security ties but also concerns over ongoing violence. This reinforced cautious optimism but did not confirm normalization, contributing to market fluctuations.
Syrian official states no progress without Israeli troop withdrawal timeline
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%4%
In early February 2026, Syrian officials emphasized that strategic progress with Israel requires a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from Syrian territory. This hardened stance reduced market confidence in full normalization by mid-2026.
U.S. and Iran agree to hold nuclear talks in Oman amid regional tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
The U.S. and Iran agreed to resume talks in Oman, reflecting ongoing regional diplomatic activity that indirectly affects Israel-Syria relations by influencing broader Middle East dynamics, but no direct progress on normalization was reported.
Limited travel through Rafah crossing resumes under EU supervision
June 30, 2026 dips to 10%2%
The partial reopening of the Rafah crossing indicated some humanitarian easing but did not translate into diplomatic normalization between Israel and Syria, maintaining low market confidence in normalization by mid-2026.
U.S. analysis questions effectiveness of Israel’s military edge for peace
June 30, 2026 drops to 13%6%
A critical analysis emerged questioning whether Israel’s military superiority fosters peace, highlighting Israel’s territorial expansions and lack of concessions, which dampened market optimism for normalization with Syria by mid-2026.
Trump administration promotes Syria-Israel peace initiative
June 30, 2026 plunges to 6%44%
Trump emphasized the importance of Israel maintaining a strong dialogue with Syria, but Netanyahu remained cautious about territorial concessions. Market price remained low.
U.S.-mediated talks in Paris advance Israel-Syria security pact discussions
December 31, 2026 rises to 23%2%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under U.S. mediation to finalize a security pact, including potential embassy openings and a 25-year Golan lease, raising hopes for normalization and causing market optimism.
Israel and UAE deepen cooperation supporting Druze factions in Syria amid Saudi opposition
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%7%
Israel’s cooperation with the UAE to support Druze groups in Syria, opposed by Saudi Arabia, exacerbated regional divisions and complicated prospects for Israeli-Syrian normalization, contributing to market decline.
Israel and UAE cooperate to support Druze groups in Syria
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
Israel and UAE reportedly cooperating to support Druze groups in Syria, increasing regional tensions and complicating any potential normalization with Syria.
Syrian President Sharaa consolidates control, undermines Kurdish autonomy
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
President Ahmed al-Sharaa's efforts to unify Syria and suppress Kurdish autonomy reduced fragmentation risks but maintained tensions with Israel, limiting normalization prospects and keeping market prices low.
Israel and Syria Move Toward U.S.-Brokered Security Deal and Potential Diplomatic Ties
December 31, 2026 rises to 25%4%
Reports emerged that Syrian and Israeli officials were set to meet under U.S. mediation to finalize a security pact, with optimistic sources suggesting a potential 25-year Golan Heights lease and the opening of an Israeli embassy in Damascus by late 2026.
Syrian source says Israel-Syria security deal to be finalized soon under US mediation
A source close to Syrian President al-Sharaa indicated that Israeli and Syrian officials are expected to finalize a US-brokered security agreement soon, including potential joint economic projects. However, Israel's refusal to return Golan Heights territory remained a sticking point, limiting optimism.
Syria and Israel Expected to Meet Soon to Finalize Security Deal
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
Reports indicated that Syrian and Israeli officials would meet soon to finalize a security pact, with rumors of a potential 25-year Golan Heights lease and embassy openings.
Reports indicate Israel and Syria to finalize US-brokered security deal soon
December 31, 2026 rises to 24%3%
Sources close to Syrian President al-Sharaa indicated that talks under US mediation were progressing toward finalizing a security agreement, raising market expectations temporarily despite no formal announcement yet.
Syrian Source Outlines Potential Golan Heights Lease and Embassy Opening Plans
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
Reports emerged that Syria would consider full diplomatic relations and a 25-year lease of the Golan Heights under heavy U.S. pressure, though Israel's historical stance made this highly complex.
Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev meets U.S. delegates in Davos amid peace talks
Russian negotiator Dmitriev met with U.S. envoys including Jared Kushner to discuss peace plans, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts involving regional conflicts but with no direct breakthrough on Israel-Syria normalization, maintaining market uncertainty.
Syrian foreign minister says normalization talks have stalled
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%7%
A tweet from Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shaibani on Jan 17 2026 reported that efforts to bridge the gap with Israel had stalled, reinforcing market pessimism and prompting a further price drop.
Israeli military intensifies operations in Gaza amid ongoing conflict
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%13%
Israel's focus on military operations and settlement expansion signaled a hardening stance, reducing optimism for diplomatic breakthroughs with Syria. This contributed to a further decline in market prices for normalization by December 31, 2026.
U.S.-Mediated Talks Advance Toward Israel-Syria Security Pact and Possible Embassy Opening
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%4%
Reports indicated that Israeli and Syrian officials were moving beyond a limited security arrangement toward full diplomatic normalization, including discussions of a 25-year Golan lease and an Israeli embassy in Damascus by late 2026. This optimism initially boosted market prices for normalization by the end of 2026.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu approves major natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
Netanyahu’s approval of a $35 billion natural gas deal with Egypt strengthened regional economic ties but did not directly advance Israel-Syria normalization, contributing to stable but low market confidence in normalization by end of 2026.
Reports of stalled progress as Syria demands Israeli troop withdrawal before normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%6%
Syrian officials insisted on Israeli withdrawal to pre-December 2024 borders before any final agreement, while Israel maintained demands for security guarantees, causing market skepticism and price declines.
EU leaders visit Syria, pledge reconstruction aid but note security concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%6%
AP reported a visit by EU officials to Damascus, offering billions in aid while stressing that ongoing clashes and lack of a clear diplomatic path with Israel keep normalization prospects low, contributing to another price decline.
Syrian‑Kurdish talks in Damascus end without tangible results
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%8%
A high‑level meeting between Syrian officials and SDF commander Mazloum Abdi produced no concrete agreement, reinforcing market pessimism about any diplomatic progress with Israel.
Israel reiterates commitment to regional stability and economic cooperation with Syria
Israel's Prime Minister's office emphasized ongoing dialogue to promote security, protect minorities, and advance economic cooperation, indicating continued talks without breakthrough on normalization.
Analysis highlights potential breakthrough in Israel-Syria relations after Paris talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 27%3%
Experts noted the January 2026 talks as a possible step toward normalization, citing prior de-escalation agreements and US mediation, which briefly supported market optimism.
End of the state of war with Syria? — Israel Hayom analysis
An opinion piece in Israel Hayom highlighted the Paris meeting as a “step toward normalisation” but emphasized that key issues—particularly Israeli control of the Golan—remained unresolved, keeping market optimism low.
Israeli and Syrian delegations hold important diplomatic meeting in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
Israeli and Syrian delegations met in Paris under US auspices, marking an important diplomatic step toward normalization but with significant obstacles remaining, including Israeli control of the Golan Heights.
Israeli and Syrian delegations meet in Paris under US auspices, advancing talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
On January 11, 2026, Israeli and Syrian delegations met in Paris with US mediation, marking an important diplomatic step but without agreement on full normalization or troop withdrawals, leading to market price declines.
Analysis highlights US role in Syria-Israel soft normalization via joint mechanism
Analysis emphasized that the US-led joint fusion mechanism between Syria and Israel represents a soft normalization step rather than full diplomatic relations, reflecting limited market enthusiasm for complete normalization by end of 2026.
Analysis highlights potential but challenges in Israel-Syria normalization
December 31, 2026 rises to 23%3%
Experts noted the recent meetings as important diplomatic steps toward normalization, but also highlighted ongoing obstacles such as Israeli control over the Golan Heights and Syrian public opposition, tempering market optimism.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 plunges to 6%44%
Joint statement confirmed establishment of a joint communication cell for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, but no agreement on normalization was reached. Market price remained low.
Experts highlight potential but challenges in Israel-Syria talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 43%1%
Analysts noted the recent meetings as important diplomatic steps toward normalization but emphasized ongoing obstacles, tempering market enthusiasm for near-term full normalization.
Experts highlight joint mechanism as potential path to normalization
December 31, 2026 rises to 25%3%
Analysts noted that the joint communication mechanism between Israel and Syria could pave the way for normalization, though recent hostilities in Syria threaten progress, reflecting cautious market optimism.
Expert analysis highlights potential for positive diplomatic engagement
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
A Texas A&M professor noted that the joint communication cell could pave the way for improved relations, but recent hostilities in Aleppo threaten progress, reflecting ongoing instability.
Experts highlight potential for positive diplomatic engagement after US-brokered Israel-Syria meeting
December 31, 2026 drops to 15%5%
Analysis from experts noted the establishment of the joint coordination mechanism as a major success and a potential foundation for future diplomatic progress, though normalization remained uncertain.
Netanyahu reportedly cuts tactical deal with Iran amid regional tensions
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%6%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly reached a tactical non-aggression deal with Iran, easing some regional tensions but not directly advancing Israel-Syria normalization. Market impact was limited but contributed to cautious sentiment.
Expert analysis highlights promise of US-brokered Israel-Syria communication cell
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
A Texas A&M professor noted the joint communication cell as a major success story potentially paving the way for positive diplomatic engagement, though internal Syrian hostilities pose risks.
Trilateral US-Israel-Syria meeting shows promise but Aleppo hostilities threaten progress
December 31, 2026 rises to 23%3%
A trilateral meeting under US auspices indicated potential for significant diplomatic engagement, but recent hostilities in Aleppo raised concerns about the durability of progress, contributing to market uncertainty.
Expert analysis highlights potential breakthrough in Israel-Syria relations
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%10%
On January 9, 2026, analysis from Texas A&M University noted the recent Israel-Syria agreement as a potential breakthrough toward normalization, citing prior de-escalation agreements. Despite this, ongoing hostilities and unresolved issues tempered market enthusiasm.
Experts say public announcement of talks marks first official acknowledgment
June 30, 2026 dips to 19%2%
Texas A&M analyst Emma Lawson quoted Barrack describing the Paris talks as a “breakthrough” and noted that the public acknowledgment of the talks was the first time they were disclosed. The commentary reinforced market doubts that the talks would lead to full diplomatic relations, keeping the “Yes” probability low at 19 % for the June‑30 outcome.
Texas A&M analysis says Israel‑Syria talks could lead to breakthrough
An analysis piece highlighted the significance of the communication cell and suggested it could pave the way for full diplomatic ties. The expert commentary added credibility to the process, keeping the market flat around 11 % for the December‑2026 outcome.
Trilateral meeting between US, Israel, and Syria shows promise in diplomatic engagement
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
A trilateral meeting under US leadership reaffirmed commitments to lasting security and stability, establishing a joint fusion mechanism for coordination, indicating positive diplomatic momentum but no formal normalization yet.
Expert analysis highlights promise and challenges in Israel-Syria-US trilateral talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%5%
A Texas A&M professor noted the historic nature of the US-brokered talks and the establishment of a communication cell, but warned that recent hostilities in Syria could threaten progress, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
Lebanese Armed Forces claim operational control south of Litani amid regional shifts
While not directly about Israel-Syria normalization, this development in Lebanon reflects broader regional security dynamics affecting Israel's northern borders, indirectly influencing market sentiment on Israel-Syria relations.
Lebanese Armed Forces announce operational control south of Litani amid regional security efforts
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%3%
On January 8, 2026, the Lebanese Armed Forces declared completion of a security roadmap phase, impacting regional stability dynamics relevant to Israel-Syria relations. This development indirectly influenced market sentiment by highlighting ongoing regional complexities.
State Department publishes joint statement on Israel‑Syria trilateral meeting
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
The US State Department released the official joint statement confirming the fusion mechanism and reiterating both sides’ commitment to “lasting security and stability”. The formal documentation further weakened market optimism, pushing the price down to 11 % for the December‑2026 outcome.
Everything you need to know about the Syria‑Israel deal in Paris
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%8%
Al Jazeera published a detailed analysis of the Paris deal, describing it as a “joint mechanism aimed at sharing intelligence and military de‑escalation” but emphasizing that no full diplomatic ties were established, cementing the market’s view that a Yes outcome was unlikely (price stayed below 10 % through March 2026).
US-backed Israel-Syria deal aims to boost Syrian economy and regional stability
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
A US-mediated deal proposed economic cooperation and security arrangements between Israel and Syria, but full diplomatic normalization remained uncertain, leading to continued market decline.
Detailed overview of Israel-Syria deal highlights security and economic cooperation
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
Reports detailed the joint mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, emphasizing US influence and Israel's interest in countering Turkish influence, but no full diplomatic normalization yet.
Analysis highlights Syrian public opposition to normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%5%
Polling showed only 14% of Syrians support normalization, indicating strong domestic resistance that complicates official diplomatic recognition and contributed to market price declines.
Everything you need to know about the Syria‑Israel deal in Paris
A background article summarised the deal, reinforcing market perception that the talks were moving forward but still far from a formal peace treaty, leaving the probability unchanged.
US-backed Israel-Syria talks focus on border security and economic cooperation
June 30, 2026 dips to 14%2%
US mediation continued with talks emphasizing border security and economic ties, but no breakthrough on full diplomatic normalization was reported, contributing to continued market decline.
EU leaders pledge support for Syria's recovery post-civil war
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%6%
European Union officials visited Syria and pledged financial aid for reconstruction, indicating Syria's improving international relations but highlighting ongoing internal challenges that complicate normalization with Israel.
Israel reiterates commitment to regional stability and economic cooperation with Syria
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
Israel's Prime Minister's office emphasized ongoing dialogue to promote security and economic cooperation, including protecting the Druze minority, indicating sustained but cautious engagement without full normalization.
Joint US-Israel-Syria statement highlights determination to improve relations
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%10%
A trilateral statement from the US, Israel, and Syria emphasized turning a new page in relations for future generations, reinforcing diplomatic momentum but without formal normalization announcement.
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials meet in Paris under US auspices
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%1%
Senior officials from Israel and Syria met in Paris under US auspices to discuss respect for sovereignty, security, and prosperity, reflecting a diplomatic engagement but no formal normalization announcement.
Analysis highlights promise and challenges in Israel-Syria-US trilateral engagement
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%5%
Experts noted the establishment of the joint coordination mechanism as a major success, potentially paving the way for positive diplomatic engagement despite ongoing hostilities in Syria.
Syria Reportedly Open to Israel Opening a Non-Diplomatic Liaison Office in Damascus
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%5%
Reports indicated that Syria was open to a US-backed security initiative that included allowing Israel to open a liaison office in Damascus without formal diplomatic status.
Analysis highlights potential but challenges in Israel-Syria normalization talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%4%
On January 7, 2026, analyses noted the establishment of a joint mechanism as a potential step toward normalization but emphasized ongoing hostilities and political obstacles, tempering market expectations for full normalization soon.
Israel and Syria resume diplomatic talks in Paris under US mediation
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%1%
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris to discuss security coordination and economic opportunities, renewing diplomatic dialogue but stopping short of formal normalization.
US State Department confirms Israel-Syria joint fusion mechanism
December 31, 2026 drops to 44%7%
The US State Department published a joint statement confirming the establishment of a 'joint fusion mechanism' between Israel and Syria, reinforcing the partial normalization framework but not full diplomatic ties, maintaining market uncertainty.
Analysts say Jan 7 joint statement is only a soft‑normalisation step
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%3%
Analysts highlighted that the communication cell was a “soft‑normalisation” step rather than a full diplomatic tie, reinforcing market sentiment that a complete Israel‑Syria relationship was unlikely before year‑end, further lowering the Yes probability for both outcomes.
Everything you need to know about the Syria‑Israel deal in Paris
Al Jazeera published an explainer piece summarising the Paris talks and noting that the agreement covered only intelligence sharing and de‑escalation, not full diplomatic recognition. The article’s tone reinforced market participants’ view that a full “Yes” outcome was unlikely.
Israel and Syria renew diplomatic dialogue with U.S. backing
Renewed diplomatic talks with American support focused on regional stability and security, maintaining market hopes for normalization despite ongoing challenges.
Joint statement issued on trilateral meeting between US, Israel, and Syria in Paris
The US, Israel, and Syria released a joint statement highlighting productive discussions under US leadership focused on respect for sovereignty and security, reinforcing the establishment of a communication mechanism but not full normalization. This maintained market optimism but did not significantly raise probabilities.
Joint statement issued by U.S., Israel, and Syria on trilateral meeting in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 24%3%
A joint statement released on January 7, 2026, by the U.S., Israel, and Syria confirmed productive discussions and the establishment of a dedicated communication cell. The statement emphasized turning a new page but did not announce formal diplomatic relations, tempering market optimism.
U.S. State Department issues joint statement on Israel‑Syria mechanism
The U.S. State Department published a joint statement confirming the establishment of a “joint fusion mechanism”. Analysts treated the wording as confirming only limited cooperation, not full diplomatic ties, reinforcing the downward trend in the market.
U.S., Israel and Syria announce joint communication cell
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%14%
A joint statement released by the State Department announced a new “joint fusion mechanism” – a dedicated communication cell for intelligence sharing and de‑escalation – but stopped short of full diplomatic recognition. The announcement triggered the biggest price drop for the June 30, 2026 outcome, pushing the “Yes” probability to single‑digit levels.
US State Department releases joint statement on Israel-Syria talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 25%4%
The US State Department published a joint statement on January 6, 2026, confirming productive discussions between Israel and Syria under US auspices, emphasizing respect for sovereignty and security but not announcing full normalization.
Israel, Syria agree to dedicated communication cell under US supervision
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%4%
Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint mechanism for sharing intelligence and coordinating military de-escalation under United States supervision, which will also facilitate diplomatic engagement and commercial opportunities. This agreement was a significant step toward normalization.
Israel and Syria agree to establish joint communication mechanism under U.S. supervision
June 30, 2026 jumps to 26%5%
On January 6, 2026, Israel and Syria agreed to set up a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement under U.S. oversight. This was a significant step toward reducing tensions but fell short of full normalization, causing mixed market reactions.
Joint U.S.-Israel-Syria statement affirms commitment to lasting security arrangements
December 31, 2026 drops to 19%7%
The U.S. State Department released a joint statement confirming Israel and Syria's commitment to lasting security and stability arrangements and the establishment of a dedicated communication cell, reflecting progress but no formal diplomatic relations yet.
US State Department confirms joint fusion mechanism between Israel and Syria
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%7%
The US State Department published a joint statement confirming the establishment of a "joint fusion mechanism" between Israel and Syria, facilitating cooperation but falling short of full normalization.
US State Department issues joint statement on Israel-Syria talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%7%
The US, Israel, and Syria released a joint statement affirming their commitment to lasting security and stability arrangements and the establishment of a joint fusion mechanism. This official endorsement reinforced the diplomatic progress but did not confirm normalization.
U.S. announces Israel‑Syria “joint fusion mechanism”
December 31, 2026 jumps to 21%8%
The U.S. State Department published a joint statement announcing a “joint fusion mechanism” between Israel and Syria, described by analysts as a soft‑normalisation deal. The news pushed the market’s “Yes” probability up (from 13 % on 2026‑01‑02 to 21 % on 2026‑01‑07), reflecting optimism that formal diplomatic ties might soon be announced.
Syria insists on Israeli troop withdrawal before advancing strategic talks
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
A Syrian official stated that progress on strategic issues with Israel is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from Syrian territory seized after Assad's overthrow, dampening market expectations for full normalization by June 2026.
Israel and Syria agree on joint intelligence sharing and military de-escalation mechanism
December 31, 2026 jumps to 20%6%
Israel and Syria, under US supervision, agreed to a dedicated communication cell to coordinate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement, signaling a positive but limited step toward normalization.
Israel, Syria agree to dedicated communication line in US‑brokered talks
A joint statement released by the State Department announced that Israel and Syria had agreed to set up a “joint fusion mechanism” and a dedicated communication line. While a concrete step, it was widely described as a soft‑normalisation rather than full diplomatic recognition, prompting a large drop in the market’s “Yes” odds.
US State Department releases joint statement on Israel-Syria talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%11%
The US, Israel, and Syria issued a joint statement highlighting productive discussions under US auspices focused on sovereignty, security, and prosperity, signaling diplomatic engagement but not full normalization.
Joint statement by U.S., Israel, and Syria affirms commitment to security and stability
December 31, 2026 jumps to 24%12%
The trilateral joint statement underscored the parties' determination to improve relations and coordinate on multiple fronts, reinforcing market optimism temporarily.
Joint US-Israel-Syria statement affirms productive discussions in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%8%
The three governments released a joint statement highlighting productive talks under U.S. auspices focused on sovereignty, security, and prosperity, reinforcing market optimism temporarily.
US State Department says Israel and Syria have created a joint fusion mechanism
December 31, 2026 jumps to 27%6%
The US State Department announced the establishment of a “joint fusion mechanism”, a concrete step toward soft normalisation; the market rose to 27 % Yes on 2026‑01‑06 for the Dec‑2026 outcome.
US State Department publishes joint statement on Israel-Syria talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%8%
The US State Department released a joint statement on January 6, 2026, confirming the establishment of a "joint fusion mechanism" between Israel and Syria. This official acknowledgment reinforced the partial normalization but highlighted the absence of full diplomatic relations, contributing to market decline.
Syrian official states no progress without Israeli withdrawal from seized territories
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%10%
A Syrian official declared that strategic progress with Israel is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from Syrian territory seized since late 2024, highlighting a key obstacle to normalization and pressuring market sentiment downward.
Israel, Syria, and US announce joint communication cell for coordination
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%2%
A trilateral statement confirmed establishment of a joint fusion mechanism to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities under US supervision, maintaining cautious optimism.
Syrian official states progress impossible without Israeli troop withdrawal timeline
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%10%
Following the January 6 talks, a Syrian official declared that moving forward on strategic issues with Israel was impossible without a clear and enforceable timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from Syrian territory seized after Assad's overthrow. This stance dampened market optimism.
US, Israel, and Syria Announce Agreement on Permanent Security Arrangements
December 31, 2026 dips to 26%2%
Following high-level talks in Paris, the three nations released a joint statement agreeing to establish a joint coordination mechanism and communication cell under US supervision.
Israel and Syria formalize joint communication mechanism in US-brokered talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%6%
The US Department of State and involved parties announced the formalization of the joint fusion mechanism to manage intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, signaling continued cooperation but no full diplomatic normalization.
Israel and Syria agree to establish joint communication mechanism under US supervision
December 31, 2026 surges to 45%31%
Israel and Syria agreed to create a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities, marking a significant step in coordination though short of full normalization.
Joint statement confirms Israel-Syria communication mechanism but highlights Israeli troop withdrawal demands
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%6%
While a communication mechanism was agreed upon, Syrian officials stated that progress on strategic issues requires a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal, tempering market optimism.
Israel, Syria agree to joint fusion mechanism in U.S.‑brokered talks
June 30, 2026 drops to 18%7%
A joint statement released by the U.S. State Department announced that Israel and Syria agreed to set up a “joint fusion mechanism” – a dedicated communication cell – but noted that progress on a binding withdrawal timetable was absent, further eroding market confidence (price fell to 18 % by 17 Dec 2025).
Israel, Syria, US launch dedicated communication cell to coordinate intelligence and de‑escalation
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%10%
A joint statement from the US, Israel and Syria reported the creation of a dedicated communication line – the “fusion mechanism”. The announcement marked the first concrete institutional framework, lifting the “December 31 2026” probability from 22 % to 12 % the following day.
U.S., Israel, Syria announce resumption of diplomatic dialogue in Paris
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%16%
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under U.S. mediation, marking a major diplomatic breakthrough after months of silence and renewed security coordination discussions.
Israel and Syria reaffirm commitment to security and establish joint communication cell
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
Under US auspices, Israel and Syria publicly confirmed a joint mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, maintaining diplomatic dialogue but without progress toward full normalization, leading to modest market gains.
Israel, Syria agree to joint communication mechanism under U.S. supervision
Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation under U.S. oversight, reflecting progress in dialogue but not full normalization, causing minor price fluctuations.
Israel and Syria establish joint fusion mechanism under U.S. supervision
December 31, 2026 surges to 41%16%
Israel and Syria officially announced the creation of a joint communication cell to coordinate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement, marking a significant but limited step toward normalization without formal diplomatic ties.
U.S. releases joint statement on Israel‑Syria communication cell
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%21%
The official U.S. press release on Jan 6 announced the establishment of the joint communication cell, widely reported as a “breakthrough”. The market reacted with a sharp decline (‑21 points) from 32 % on Dec 10 to 11 % on Jan 5, reflecting skepticism that the step amounted to full normalization.
Israel’s Prime Minister’s office confirms resumed diplomatic dialogue with Syria
December 31, 2026 jumps to 28%6%
Netanyahu’s office announced the resumption of diplomatic dialogue with Syria backed by the US, emphasizing security and regional stability but without announcing formal normalization, reflecting ongoing cautious progress.
Israel and Syria renew diplomatic dialogue with U.S. backing
December 31, 2026 drops to 24%7%
Following the establishment of the joint fusion mechanism, Israel and Syria officially resumed diplomatic dialogue with U.S. support, focusing on security and economic cooperation, reflecting a cautious but historic thaw.
Syrian Official Demands Israeli Troop Withdrawal Before Strategic Progress
June 30, 2026 jumps to 16%5%
A Syrian official stated that moving forward on strategic files is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal, tempering hopes for rapid normalization.
Syrian Official Rules Out Strategic Progress Without Israeli Troop Withdrawal Timeline
June 30, 2026 dips to 11%4%
A Syrian official stated that moving forward on strategic files is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli withdrawal from seized territories, tempering immediate normalization hopes.
EU leaders visit Syria, pledge support and lift sanctions
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
AP reported on Jan 5 2026 that EU officials met interim President Ahmad al‑Sharaa, announced €620 million aid and lifted sanctions, signalling improved ties with the West but no direct Israel‑Syria breakthrough, which kept market sentiment low.
Syria and Israel resume U.S.–mediated security talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 plunges to 15%21%
Reuters reported the resumption of U.S.‑mediated security talks in Paris after a several‑month pause, but Syrian officials emphasized that any “strategic files” depended on Israel withdrawing troops. The market reacted with a steep decline, reflecting doubts about full normalization.
US-mediated Syria-Israel talks held in Paris on security arrangements
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%5%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for US-mediated talks to discuss security arrangements, signaling some diplomatic engagement but no breakthrough on normalization. The talks provided a modest positive signal but did not reverse the downward market trend.
Syria and Israel resume US-mediated security talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 jumps to 22%6%
After months of silence, Syria and Israel resumed US-mediated talks focusing on security and reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement, signaling cautious diplomatic progress but no formal normalization yet.
US-Mediated Security Talks Between Israel and Syria Resume in Paris
December 31, 2026 jumps to 28%9%
Syria and Israel resumed direct security talks in Paris under US mediation, with Damascus pushing for the withdrawal of Israeli troops to pre-December 2024 lines.
U.S.-mediated talks between Israel and Syria resume in Paris
December 31, 2026 jumps to 31%11%
After a hiatus, high-level security negotiations resumed under U.S. coordination focusing on reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement, raising hopes for progress in normalization talks.
Syria, Israel resume U.S.–mediated security talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%14%
Reuters reported that U.S.‑mediated security talks between Israel and Syria resumed in Paris after a several‑month pause, but both sides stressed that “strategic files” such as full diplomatic recognition remained unresolved, pushing the “Yes” odds down to 22 % on 10 Dec 2025 and continuing a downward trend.
Syria, Israel resume U.S.-mediated security talks in Paris
Reuters reported that U.S.‑mediated security talks between Israel and Syria resumed in Paris after a months‑long pause. The restart was seen as a step forward but far short of a full diplomatic agreement, sending the “Yes” probability down further.
Syria and Israel resume US-mediated security talks focusing on 1974 disengagement agreement
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%3%
Syria and Israel resumed talks mediated by the US aiming to revive the 1974 disengagement agreement, but these discussions were limited to security and ceasefire issues rather than full normalization, keeping market confidence low.
Syria and Israel resume U.S.-mediated security talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%4%
After months of silence, Syria and Israel resumed U.S.-mediated talks focused on reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement and establishing a buffer zone, signaling renewed diplomatic engagement and raising market hopes.
U.S.-mediated Israel-Syria security talks resume after months of silence
June 30, 2026 drops to 12%7%
Talks resumed in Paris with US mediation focusing on reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement and Israeli troop withdrawal demands, but Syria insisted on a clear timeline for withdrawal, maintaining key disagreements and limiting market optimism.
U.S.-Mediated Security Talks Between Israel and Syria Resume in Paris
June 30, 2026 rises to 13%2%
After a multi-month interruption, senior Israeli and Syrian officials resumed direct negotiations in Paris, focusing on border security and the withdrawal of Israeli troops.
EU delegation highlights Syria’s reconstruction, not Israel ties
June 30, 2026 drops to 12%10%
During the EU visit, officials focused on reconstruction aid and a ceasefire with Kurdish forces, offering no progress on Israel‑Syria diplomatic normalization, reinforcing market pessimism.
US-mediated Syria-Israel talks resume after months of silence
June 30, 2026 dips to 21%1%
Diplomatic talks resumed in Paris under US mediation focusing on reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement and Israeli troop withdrawal demands, signaling renewed but cautious progress.
Syrian government and Kurdish-led force deal unravels amid new clashes
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%5%
The breakdown of a ceasefire deal between the Syrian government and Kurdish forces, with ensuing violence and IS prisoner escapes, further destabilized Syria, diminishing hopes for normalization with Israel and pushing market prices lower.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-mediated security talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 rises to 24%2%
After months of silence, Israel and Syria resumed talks under U.S. mediation focusing on reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement, raising hopes for progress and causing a temporary market uptick.
Delcy Rodríguez sworn in as Venezuela’s interim president
While unrelated directly to Israel-Syria relations, this event reflects regional political shifts and complexities in Middle Eastern and allied countries' diplomacy, indirectly influencing geopolitical calculations.
Israel and Syria resume US-mediated security talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 jumps to 45%10%
After months of silence, Israel and Syria resumed talks in Paris under US mediation focusing on reactivating the 1974 disengagement agreement and security arrangements, signaling ongoing but cautious diplomatic engagement.
U.S.-mediated security talks between Israel and Syria resume in Paris
December 31, 2026 jumps to 24%5%
Talks focused on reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement resumed, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and causing a slight market uptick for normalization by December 31, 2026.
U.S.-mediated Israel-Syria security talks resume in Paris
December 31, 2026 plunges to 20%17%
After a months-long hiatus, U.S.-mediated talks resumed focusing on reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement, raising hopes for progress in normalization.
Israel clears final hurdle for E1 West Bank settlement project
December 31, 2026 jumps to 28%6%
Israel’s approval of the contentious E1 settlement tender heightened regional tensions and signaled a focus on settlement expansion rather than diplomatic outreach to Syria, pulling prices down further.
Middle East outlook grim as Israeli-Syrian talks stall
June 30, 2026 drops to 13%9%
Despite initial promise of a U.S.-brokered Israeli-Syrian security accord, Israeli concerns over security and territorial control stalled progress, reducing market confidence in normalization by mid-2026.
U.S.-brokered Israeli-Syrian security talks show promise but face challenges
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%6%
Washington brokered senior-level talks between Israel and Syria about a security accord, offering a historic opportunity for easing tensions. However, Israeli strategic interests and Syria's internal challenges limited progress toward normalization, contributing to market decline.
Israeli military actions and regional tensions keep normalization prospects low
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%14%
Despite a new Syrian regime and some diplomatic overtures, Israel's ongoing military strikes in Syria and Lebanon, and its policies in Gaza and the West Bank, sustained deep mistrust and diminished hopes for normalization with Syria by mid-2026.
Middle East looks toward grim 2026 outlook
June 30, 2026 rises to 15%1%
Foreign Policy article warned that promising regional developments have collided with recalcitrant Middle Eastern players, creating a pessimistic outlook for normalization.
Optimism fades as regional realities stall Israel-Syria progress
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%6%
Despite earlier hopes, Israeli military actions in Syria and ongoing distrust, especially regarding Syria's new leadership and Israeli security concerns, have stalled normalization prospects, leading to further market price declines.
U.S.-mediated Israeli-Syrian talks resume in Paris
June 30, 2026 plunges to 6%44%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-brokered talks aimed at a security agreement, signaling renewed diplomatic efforts. However, no normalization was achieved, and the market price dropped sharply.
Analysis warns of grim outlook for Middle East peace including stalled Israel-Syria normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
Despite earlier optimism, regional politics and recalcitrance of players like Israel and Syria have collided with peace efforts. Israel continues military actions in Syria and occupies territory, while Syria faces internal challenges. This reality dampened market optimism further, pushing prices down.
Israeli settlement construction tender clears final hurdle near Jerusalem
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%14%
Israel cleared the final administrative step to begin construction on the contentious E1 settlement project near Jerusalem, further straining regional relations and diminishing hopes for normalization with Syria by year-end 2026.
Syrian and Israeli officials resume U.S.-mediated talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%9%
Officials from Syria and Israel met in Paris to discuss reactivating the 1974 disengagement agreement and Israeli withdrawal from the buffer zone, aiming to reduce tensions but without progress toward full normalization.
Syria hints at conditional liaison office in Damascus
June 30, 2026 rises to 13%1%
Reports emerged that a Syrian source indicated willingness to open a limited liaison office in Damascus contingent on progress in talks. The optimism was short‑lived; the market dipped again to 13 % on Feb 23, suggesting the news failed to alter expectations of full normalization.
Saudi Arabia uses military force in Yemen amid UAE tensions
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%8%
Saudi Arabia's military action in Yemen against UAE-backed forces underscored regional rivalries and complicated Gulf cooperation, indirectly affecting Israel-Syria normalization prospects by highlighting broader regional instability.
Syrian President al‑Sharaa says security agreement with Israel is at an advanced stage
December 31, 2026 jumps to 31%13%
Al‑Sharaa told reporters that a security agreement was “at an advanced stage”, briefly reviving market confidence; price rose to 31 % Yes on 2025‑12‑30.
U.S.‑Saudi reconfiguration article notes no concrete steps toward Israel‑Syria normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 24%11%
War on the Rocks analysis on Dec 30 2025 highlighted that Saudi and broader Arab leaders see no tangible timeline or confidence‑building measures for Israel‑Syria diplomatic ties, underscoring regional skepticism and contributing to the market’s decline in late December.
Hezbollah replaces top security official amid internal restructuring
Hezbollah’s leadership change signalled ongoing instability on Israel’s northern frontier, reinforcing concerns that security tensions would dominate the agenda and further dampen normalization hopes, pushing prices lower.
US President Donald Trump meets Israeli PM Netanyahu, expressing hope for Syria deal
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%2%
Trump's meeting with Netanyahu reinforced US support for Middle East peace efforts including potential normalization between Israel and Syria, temporarily boosting market confidence.
US President Trump urges Israel to restart talks with Syria at Mar-a-Lago
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%1%
President Trump met with Netanyahu and urged restarting stalled talks with Syria as part of his Middle East peace vision, boosting hopes for progress and increasing market optimism temporarily.
US President Trump meets Israeli PM Netanyahu, urges renewed Syria talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%
President Trump met Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, encouraging the renewal of stalled talks with Syria as part of his broader Middle East peace vision, aiming to stabilize the region and promote economic cooperation.
Trump hosts Netanyahu and Syrian President al‑Sharaa to launch new US‑backed Israel‑Syria peace effort
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%6%
US President Donald Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa at Mar‑a‑Lago and announced a renewed US‑backed peace push, stating that the three sides would resume direct talks. The high‑profile meeting lifted market expectations of a formal diplomatic breakthrough, pushing the “December 31 2026” probability up from 35 % to 29 % the next day.
US President Trump expresses confidence in Syria-Israel agreement
December 31, 2026 surges to 45%17%
At a press conference with Netanyahu, Trump expressed confidence that Syrian and Israeli leaders would reach an agreement, boosting market optimism temporarily about a near-term deal.
US President Trump urges Netanyahu to restart talks with Syria
US President Donald Trump met with Netanyahu and urged him to restart stalled talks with Syria as part of his Middle East peace vision. This US mediation effort led to renewed diplomatic dialogue and the joint communication mechanism, briefly supporting market optimism.
US President Trump hosts Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu amid Syria talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
President Trump met with Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, emphasizing US support for Israel-Syria dialogue and peace efforts. Despite this high-level backing, Israeli demands and Syrian reservations kept normalization prospects uncertain, reflected in market price volatility.
Trump and Netanyahu Meet at Mar-a-Lago to Discuss Syria and Regional Peace
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%
President Trump hosted Prime Minister Netanyahu in Florida, urging him to reach an agreement and 'get along' with Syria's new government, which catalyzed a resumption of direct talks.
Trump urges Netanyahu to restart Israel-Syria talks at Mar-a-Lago
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%6%
US President Trump encouraged Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to resume talks with Syria, reflecting US commitment to advancing peace and normalization efforts in the region.
Israeli troops expand control in Syrian territory post-Assad overthrow
June 30, 2026 plunges to 16%15%
Israeli military advances into Syrian territory seized after Assad's overthrow complicated normalization talks, causing market prices to decline due to increased tensions and Syrian demands for troop withdrawal.
Trump says Syria likely to join Abraham Accords by year‑end
President Donald Trump told reporters in Palm Beach that he expected Syria to join the Abraham Accords this year. The comment was interpreted as an optimistic signal but also highlighted the difficulty of securing a full diplomatic breakthrough, causing the market’s “Yes” probability to fall sharply over the following days.
Trump hosts Netanyahu, urges restart of Israel-Syria talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 26%4%
US President Trump met Israeli PM Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, urging renewed negotiations with Syria as part of his Middle East peace vision, boosting market hopes temporarily.
US, Israel, Syria announce joint statement on security and economic cooperation
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
The three countries released a joint statement affirming commitment to security arrangements and economic cooperation, including a $4 billion GDP growth proposal for Syria, but no formal diplomatic relations were announced.
Trump and Netanyahu discuss Middle‑East peace in Palm Beach
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%11%
During a private meeting in Palm Beach, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed the next steps of the peace plan, but no concrete agreement with Syria was announced, causing the market to downgrade the “Yes” probability further.
Trump meets Netanyahu to push Middle East peace including Syria
June 30, 2026 drops to 36%14%
President Donald Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago to discuss advancing peace in the Middle East, including efforts to normalize relations with Syria. This meeting raised initial market optimism about potential normalization.
Trump and Netanyahu meet in Palm Beach, hint at Israel‑Syria breakthrough
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%5%
Trump and Netanyahu’s meeting at Mar‑a‑Lago was portrayed as the final step before a formal normalization. Market optimism peaked at 38 % on 10 Dec 2025, then fell as details remained vague.
Trump meets Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to advance Middle East peace talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 36%5%
President Trump’s meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on December 29, 2025, reinforced U.S. commitment to facilitating Israel-Syria dialogue, temporarily boosting market confidence in normalization prospects.
US President Trump hosts Netanyahu, urges renewal of Israel-Syria talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%5%
President Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, urging the restart of stalled talks with Syria as part of his Middle East peace vision, temporarily boosting market optimism.
Israel and Syria agree to create joint mechanism for intelligence sharing and de-escalation
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%2%
In US-mediated talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a dedicated communication cell to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities, signaling a step toward normalization.
Trump meets Netanyahu in Florida, pushing for Israel-Syria non-aggression pact
At the end of 2025, Trump and Netanyahu agreed to accelerate negotiations with Syria towards a non-aggression pact, aiming to pave the way for normalization. This raised hopes but did not immediately translate into formal diplomatic ties.
Trump, Netanyahu meet at Mar-a-Lago; US, Israel, Syria announce renewed diplomatic push
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%6%
President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, and the US, Israel, and Syria announced that senior Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under US auspices, marking a renewed diplomatic push with plans for closer security coordination and potential economic engagement.
Israel and Syria resume diplomatic talks under US mediation
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
On December 29, 2025, Israel and Syria resumed diplomatic talks with US backing, focusing on border security and regional stability. This renewed dialogue raised market optimism about potential progress toward normalization.
Trump meets Netanyahu, urges renewal of Israel-Syria talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 37%6%
US President Donald Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, urging the renewal of stalled talks with Syria as part of his Middle East peace vision, boosting market hopes for progress.
Trump meets Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago on Syria peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%4%
President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, reinforcing US support for Israel-Syria peace efforts. Trump's statement that Israel must maintain a strong dialogue with Syria provided momentum for the peace process.
State Department says Israel‑Syria mechanism excludes troop‑withdrawal issue
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%9%
A follow‑up press release emphasized that the mechanism would not address “strategic files” until Israeli troops withdrew, dampening hopes and pulling the price down to 20 % for the December‑2026 outcome.
Syrian government casts Israeli military actions as attempt to fracture state
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%2%
Damascus criticized Israeli strikes and support for Druze factions as efforts to undermine Syrian unity, heightening regional tensions and complicating normalization prospects.
Talks progress on Syria-Israel security agreement, possible signing soon
June 30, 2026 dips to 33%3%
Reports indicated significant progress in talks over a security agreement between Syria and Israel, with a diplomatic annex possibly to be signed soon, raising market optimism for a deal by mid-2026.
Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa meets EU leaders signaling improved Western ties
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%4%
The EU delegation's visit and financial support pledge to Syria under al-Sharaa indicated Syria's diplomatic opening to the West but did not translate into progress on normalization with Israel, maintaining market skepticism.
EU leaders visit Syria, pledge support for recovery post-civil war
December 31, 2026 rises to 27%1%
European Union officials met with Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, signaling Syria's improving relations with the West but no direct progress on Israel normalization. This event reflected Syria's fragile state and complex regional relations, dampening market optimism.
Syria and Israel Progress Toward Security Agreement Mediated by Trump
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%6%
Reports emerged that security talks between Israel and Syria had progressed significantly, raising the possibility of a signed agreement with a diplomatic annex in the near future.
EU leaders visit Syria and pledge financial support
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%10%
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa visited Syria, announcing €620 million in aid and signaling improved Western ties, but no mention of diplomatic relations with Israel, leaving normalization prospects unchanged.
Syria's new leadership supports Lebanon's effort to disarm Hezbollah
June 30, 2026 drops to 20%5%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly supported disarming Hezbollah, signaling a shift in Syria's stance and potential for regional cooperation, but Israeli distrust and ongoing military actions kept normalization uncertain, causing market fluctuations.
EU leaders visit Syria, pledge aid but no diplomatic breakthrough on Israel ties
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa met Syrian interim president Ahmad al‑Sharaa, offering reconstruction aid but the visit did not produce any concrete steps toward Israel‑Syria diplomatic relations, reinforcing market pessimism.
Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa meets EU leaders pledging support for Syria’s recovery
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%10%
The EU pledged financial aid to Syria and recognized the new leadership under al-Sharaa, signaling improved Western relations. However, internal Syrian challenges and ongoing regional tensions limited immediate normalization prospects with Israel.
Israel recognizes Somaliland amid regional tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%3%
Israel's recognition of Somaliland highlighted shifting regional alliances and distracted from progress on Israel-Syria normalization, contributing to market declines in normalization prospects.
Syrian president hints at possible Israel normalization in interview
June 30, 2026 jumps to 38%5%
Al Arabiya quoted President Ahmed al‑Sharaa suggesting that Syria might consider diplomatic ties with Israel, sparking a brief rally that lifted the June‑30 outcome by 5 points before the effect faded.
Israel and Syria agree to continue dialogue focusing on Druze minority security
December 31, 2026 rises to 27%1%
Following US-mediated talks, Israel and Syria agreed to maintain dialogue emphasizing security for the Druze minority, reflecting cautious progress but no formal normalization, leading to modest market stabilization.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu demands demilitarization of southern Syria
Netanyahu's demand for complete demilitarization and Syrian troop withdrawal heightened tensions, complicating normalization talks and causing market uncertainty.
Surge in Israeli settler violence in West Bank amid settlement expansion
December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%10%
Israeli settler violence surged in the West Bank following settlement expansions, increasing regional instability and reducing chances of diplomatic normalization with Syria. This contributed to further market price declines.
Israel approves 19 new West Bank settlements including Yatziv
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
Israel's government approved new settlements in the West Bank, including Yatziv, escalating tensions with Palestinians and undermining prospects for peace and normalization with Syria. This contributed to a market price drop reflecting reduced chances of normalization by June 30, 2026.
Israeli cabinet approves 20 new West Bank settlements
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%8%
The Israeli government approved a batch of new settlements, underscoring a hard‑line stance that reduced optimism for any peace overture toward Syria, contributing to a price drop for both outcomes.
Israeli government approves 19 new West Bank settlements including Yatziv
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%8%
The Israeli government approved multiple new settlements in the West Bank, including Yatziv, escalating tensions with Palestinians and undermining prospects for peace and normalization with Syria. This dampened market expectations for normalization by December 31, 2026.
EU leaders pledge support for Syria’s recovery after civil war
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%13%
European Union officials visited Syria and pledged financial support for reconstruction, indicating Syria’s improving international relations but not directly impacting Israel-Syria normalization prospects, leading to minor market fluctuations.
Paris talks reaffirm communication cell but leave troop‑withdrawal dead‑locked
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%9%
The joint statement from the Paris talks was repeated by U.S. officials, emphasizing that the “dedicated communication cell” would not address strategic files such as Israeli troop withdrawal. The lack of progress on core issues caused the market’s “Yes” odds to fall sharply to 21 % by Dec 30.
Israel clears final hurdle for controversial West Bank settlement project
Israel approved the tender for the E1 settlement project near Jerusalem, underscoring its settlement expansion agenda and diminishing prospects for a regional diplomatic thaw, which contributed to a further price drop.
Calls to repeal U.S. Caesar sanctions on Syria to aid recovery and diplomacy
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%9%
U.S. lawmakers urged repeal of sanctions to support Syria's reconstruction and political alignment with U.S. interests, potentially facilitating normalization talks. However, no immediate breakthrough occurred, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
EU leaders pledge €620 million support to Syria’s reconstruction
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%4%
While the EU’s financial pledge improved Syria’s economic outlook, it underscored Syria’s focus on internal rebuilding rather than regional diplomatic breakthroughs, contributing to a modest price rise then reversal.
Israel and Syria agree to create joint communication mechanism in Paris talks
December 31, 2026 surges to 45%31%
In US-mediated talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and commercial opportunities, marking a significant diplomatic step and briefly boosting market confidence.
Reports of renewed Israeli-Syrian talks and potential agreement based on 1974 disengagement accord
December 31, 2026 surges to 44%21%
Israeli sources indicated a close agreement was near, including a trilateral committee and security guarantees, briefly raising market confidence in normalization prospects.
U.S. sanctions threaten Syria's recovery under new leadership
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
U.S. sanctions aimed at the previous Assad regime continued to impact Syria's recovery under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, complicating prospects for normalization with Israel and regional stability.
Israel and Syria resume talks in Paris amid stalled progress
June 30, 2026 drops to 20%12%
A fifth round of talks began in Paris after a pause, with Israel demanding humanitarian corridors and full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected, causing stalled progress and market price declines.
Israel and Syria resume diplomatic dialogue under US mediation in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%1%
Senior officials from Israel and Syria met in Paris under US auspices to renew diplomatic talks, agreeing to establish a joint communication mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, signaling progress but not full normalization.
Trump meets Netanyahu, pledges push for Israel‑Syria peace
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%3%
During a meeting at Mar‑a‑Lake, Trump publicly affirmed his support for a Syrian‑Israeli peace track and urged Netanyahu to resume talks. The announcement sparked a brief rally in the market (price rising to 32 % on Dec 3) before subsequent setbacks reversed the gain.
Israel and Syria agree to create joint mechanism for de-escalation and cooperation
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%3%
During talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint communication cell to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and commercial opportunities under US supervision, reflecting a step toward normalization.
Renewed Israel-Syria talks resume in Paris under US mediation after months of silence
December 31, 2026 rises to 24%4%
Following a period of stalled negotiations, Israel and Syria resumed talks in Paris with US backing, focusing on border security and regional stability, which briefly raised hopes for progress in normalization.
Netanyahu Appoints New Envoy to Renew Stalled Syria Talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 35%13%
Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to a request from Donald Trump to renew stalled talks with Damascus, appointing Israel's Ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, to lead the Israeli negotiating team.
Renewed Israel-Syria talks in Paris under US mediation after months of silence
December 31, 2026 surges to 33%19%
After a hiatus, Israel and Syria resumed talks in Paris with US mediation, focusing on border security and regional stability, which initially raised market optimism for a deal by mid-2026.
Renewed Israel-Syria talks in Paris face stalled progress over humanitarian corridor and diplomatic demands
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%13%
A fifth round of talks began in Paris but progress stalled due to Israel's demand for a humanitarian corridor in Sweida and later full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected. This caused market prices to drop significantly reflecting increased doubts about near-term normalization.
Israel appoints new team to lead Syria talks amid stalled progress
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%5%
With negotiations stalling over humanitarian corridor and diplomatic recognition demands, Israel replaced its lead negotiator, signaling a recalibration of its approach and causing market fluctuations.
US envoy mediates renewed Israel-Syria talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 drops to 26%7%
US Ambassador Tom Barrack led renewed talks in Paris to advance a security arrangement, reflecting US commitment to broker a deal and temporarily boosting market confidence.
Israel demands full diplomatic relations; Syria rejects, complicating talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 34%7%
Reports indicated Israel shifted to demanding full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected as not currently feasible, causing stalled progress and market price declines.
Israeli leadership reshuffles team amid stalled Syria talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
With negotiations stalling, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu appointed new officials to lead talks, signaling intent to push forward but also reflecting challenges in reaching agreement, causing market fluctuations.
Fifth round of Israel-Syria talks begins in Paris after stalled progress
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
After nearly two months without meetings, Israel and Syria resumed talks in Paris to advance a security arrangement, though progress remained slow due to disagreements over humanitarian corridors and diplomatic recognition.
Netanyahu places Ambassador Leiter at head of Israel‑Syria negotiating team
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%3%
Israel’s Prime Minister announced a reshuffle of its negotiating team, placing Ambassador Yechiel Leiter in charge of talks. Analysts interpreted the move as a sign of Israel’s willingness to compromise, nudging the market down from 38 % to 35 % for the December‑2026 outcome.
New Israeli team leads resumed talks in Paris amid stalled progress
June 30, 2026 plunges to 13%18%
Following the resignation of a key minister, Israel appointed a new delegation head for talks with Syria in Paris, but negotiations faced setbacks over issues like humanitarian corridors and demands for full diplomatic relations, causing market prices to decline.
Syrian government and Kurdish-led forces discuss military merger with no tangible results
June 30, 2026 drops to 11%5%
Talks in Damascus between Syrian government and Kurdish-led forces over military merger failed to produce tangible results, signaling ongoing divisions and reducing prospects for normalization by mid-2026.
EU delegation visits Syria, signals renewed Western engagement
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%8%
AP reported on Dec 14 2025 that EU leaders met Syrian interim president, offering financial aid and political support, which briefly lifted hopes for broader diplomatic openings before the market corrected.
Clashes erupt between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters in Aleppo
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%8%
Violent clashes between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters in northern Syria undermined stability and complicated Syria's internal situation, reducing prospects for normalization with Israel and causing market prices to fall.
Recall of July 2025 Israeli strike fuels skepticism on talks
December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%21%
An Israeli airstrike on the Syrian Defence Ministry headquarters in July 2025 was referenced in multiple reports on Dec 12, reminding traders that military clashes remained possible despite diplomatic talks, contributing to a sudden 21‑point drop from 32 % to 11 % on Dec 13.
Israel and Syria agree on intelligence‑sharing mechanism during second day of Paris talks
December 31, 2026 plunges to 18%19%
Second day of Paris talks produced a joint statement on an intelligence‑sharing and commercial‑cooperation mechanism, reviving optimism; the market jumped to 18 % Yes on 2025‑12‑12 for the Dec‑2026 outcome.
Syrian president hints at possible Israel talks but acknowledges obstacles
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%7%
Foreign Policy reported on Dec 11 2025 that Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa publicly hinted at normalization while noting internal and regional challenges, tempering expectations and contributing to a price dip.
Fifth round of Israel-Syria talks begins in Paris after stalled progress
December 31, 2026 jumps to 37%5%
After nearly two months of silence, Israel and Syria resumed talks in Paris mediated by the US, focusing on security arrangements. The resumption raised hopes but also revealed ongoing challenges, leading to market fluctuations.
US-backed Israel-Syria talks resume focusing on border security and regional stability
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%4%
Diplomatic dialogue between Israel and Syria resumed with US backing, emphasizing border security and potential economic engagement, reflecting ongoing efforts to stabilize relations despite unresolved core issues.
Trump reminds both sides of US commitment after talks stall
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%12%
After a brief setback, Trump reiterated US commitment, causing a sharp drop in the market from 34 % to 22 % as traders interpreted the statement as acknowledging stalled progress.
Israel and Syria agree on mechanism to facilitate de-escalation and economic ties
December 31, 2026 plunges to 18%24%
During talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to create a mechanism to facilitate de-escalation, diplomacy, and commercial opportunities, signaling progress but falling short of full normalization, causing mixed market reactions.
Israel and Syria agree to continue dialogue and establish joint communication cell under US supervision
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%10%
A joint statement confirmed the establishment of a dedicated communication cell to facilitate ongoing coordination on intelligence, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement, reflecting progress but not full normalization.
US President Trump urges Israel to maintain dialogue with Syria
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%4%
President Trump emphasized the importance of strong dialogue between Israel and Syria, supporting ongoing diplomatic efforts and signaling US commitment to peace in the region.
Israel demands full diplomatic relations, complicating Syria talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%7%
Reports indicated Israel shifted its demands to require full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected, stalling progress and tempering initial optimism about normalization prospects.
Israel expands buffer zone in Syria despite US mediation efforts
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
Israel's military actions to expand a buffer zone in southern Syria, contrary to US diplomatic efforts, increased tensions and reduced market confidence in normalization prospects.
Poll shows only 14% of Syrians support normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%6%
A nationwide poll revealed very low Syrian public support for normalization with Israel, reflecting deep societal opposition and complicating the political feasibility of formal diplomatic relations. This contributed to declining market confidence in normalization by both target dates.
EU leaders visit Syria and pledge €620 million aid
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council President António Costa met interim President Ahmad al‑Sharaa, signalling a thaw in Syria’s relations with the West and briefly boosting optimism for regional rapprochement, which caused a short‑term price rise.
Syrian government forces enter northern towns after Kurdish withdrawal
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
Syrian troops moved into Maskana and Deir Hafer as Kurdish forces withdrew, signaling a consolidation of state control and reducing hopes for a diplomatic opening with Israel.
Poll shows only 14% of Syrians support normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%8%
A Foreign Policy journal poll published on December 6, 2025, revealed low Syrian public support for normalization, indicating domestic challenges for the Syrian leadership and tempering market optimism.
Saudi analysts say normalization with Israel remains politically untenable
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%9%
A War on the Rocks analysis on Dec 5 2025 highlighted Saudi Arabia’s view that any Israel‑Saudi deal is blocked by settlement expansion and public outrage, signaling no imminent regional breakthrough and pulling down market optimism.
Israel expands buffer zone in Syria despite US opposition
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%8%
Israel expanded its buffer zone in southern Syria, defying US efforts to promote normalization and causing market doubts about the deal's viability. This military action undermined trust and reduced prices for normalization outcomes.
Trump administration highlights stalled Middle East peace efforts including Israel-Syria talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%10%
In early December 2025, reports indicated that despite openings, diplomatic efforts including Israel-Syria talks were stuck due to Israeli wariness and ongoing military actions. This reinforced market skepticism about normalization prospects, contributing to further price declines.
Trump's peace initiative stalls amid regional complexities
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%7%
Despite initial optimism, diplomatic efforts including Trump's peace plan failed to translate military successes into political normalization, with Israel maintaining hardline policies and regional tensions persisting, leading to market declines.
Trump administration's peace plan raises hopes but progress stalls
June 30, 2026 drops to 24%9%
Despite initial optimism from the Gaza ceasefire and regional shifts, diplomatic efforts including with Syria have stalled due to Israeli reluctance to concede territory and ongoing military actions, dampening market confidence in normalization by June 30, 2026.
U.S. President Trump pushes Israeli-Syrian security agreement amid stalled progress
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
Despite initial optimism, Israeli reluctance to lose freedom of action in Syria and ongoing military operations led to stalled progress. Trump urged Netanyahu to maintain dialogue with Syria, but Israel insisted on security guarantees, dampening normalization prospects.
Trump administration highlights missed opportunities for Middle East peace including Israel-Syria normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%7%
A senior Israeli defense official noted that diplomatic efforts have stalled, with all fronts in the Middle East still open. Despite openings created by recent conflicts, Israel remains wary of losing freedom of action in Syria, dampening prospects for normalization and causing market prices to fall.
Syrian President al-Sharaa declares support for Lebanon's Hezbollah disarmament
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%6%
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa publicly declared support for Lebanon's effort to disarm Hezbollah, a significant diplomatic gesture that could facilitate regional cooperation.
Israel, Syria, U.S. agree to set up joint communication cell in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%8%
A joint statement released by the United States, Israel and Syria announced the creation of a U.S.–supervised “joint fusion mechanism” (communication cell). The news was interpreted as a step toward de‑escalation rather than full diplomatic recognition, prompting a further decline in the market to 35 % Yes.
Israel and Syria abandon joint communication cell in Paris talks
December 31, 2026 plunges to 21%15%
Israeli and Syrian delegations met in Paris but left without agreeing to establish the joint communication cell intended to coordinate intelligence and de‑escalation, signaling a setback in normalization efforts and prompting a sharp price drop for both outcomes.
Israel and Syria meet in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%10%
Israeli and Syrian officials held a meeting in Paris, issuing a joint statement that emphasized a communication cell but stopped short of any concrete diplomatic breakthrough, reinforcing market doubts about a formal normalization before year‑end.
Trump administration highlights stalled Middle East peace opportunities including Israel-Syria talks
June 30, 2026 drops to 12%7%
A Foreign Policy article detailed how diplomatic efforts to capitalize on openings in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran had stalled, with Israel wary of losing freedom of action in Syria and cautious about a security agreement. This dampened market optimism for normalization by mid-2026.
Israel, Syria, US agree to joint intelligence sharing mechanism in Paris talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%6%
Following meetings in Paris, Israel, Syria, and the United States agreed to establish a joint fusion mechanism—a dedicated communication cell—to facilitate coordination on intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities under US supervision. This agreement was a major diplomatic breakthrough.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu signals deal possible with buffer zone demands
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%6%
Netanyahu stated that an agreement with Syria is achievable but insisted on a demilitarized buffer zone from Damascus to the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. This stance reflected Israel's security concerns and complicated negotiations, contributing to market uncertainty.
Netanyahu states Syria deal possible with demilitarized buffer zone
December 31, 2026 dips to 39%3%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly acknowledged the possibility of a deal with Syria involving a demilitarized buffer zone, reflecting cautious optimism but also highlighting ongoing security concerns that tempered market enthusiasm.
Israeli PM Netanyahu says deal with Syria possible, demands buffer zone
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%3%
Netanyahu stated a deal with Syria is possible, expecting Syrian authorities to establish a demilitarized buffer zone, signaling potential progress but also highlighting Israeli security demands that complicated talks.
Netanyahu Says Syria Deal Possible but Demands Demilitarized Buffer Zone
June 30, 2026 jumps to 22%8%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that a deal with Syria is achievable, but insisted that Syrian authorities must establish a demilitarized buffer zone stretching from Damascus to Mount Hermon.
Netanyahu says a Syria deal is possible and expects a demilitarised buffer zone
December 31, 2026 rises to 37%4%
Netanyahu announced a possible deal and called for a demilitarised buffer zone, raising expectations of a breakthrough. The market rose sharply to 37 % Yes on 2025‑12‑02 (from 33 %).
UN General Assembly adopts resolution demanding Israeli withdrawal from Syrian Golan Heights
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%6%
The UN General Assembly passed a resolution calling for Israel to withdraw from the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, reaffirming international non-recognition of Israeli annexation. This increased international pressure on Israel and highlighted the contentious status of the Golan Heights, a key obstacle to normalization.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu says Syria deal possible, demands buffer zone
December 31, 2026 dips to 39%4%
Netanyahu publicly stated a deal with Syria is possible but insisted on a demilitarized buffer zone from Damascus to Mount Hermon, signaling cautious optimism but also firm Israeli security demands. This tempered market optimism about rapid normalization.
Netanyahu says Syria deal possible with demilitarized buffer zone
December 31, 2026 rises to 34%2%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed optimism about a possible deal with Syria involving a demilitarized buffer zone, signaling some hope for progress. However, Israeli demands remained stringent, and Syria maintained conditions for withdrawal and normalization, limiting market gains.
Israeli PM Netanyahu says Syria deal possible, expects demilitarized buffer zone
December 31, 2026 rises to 39%2%
Netanyahu expressed optimism about a possible deal with Syria involving a demilitarized buffer zone, signaling some Israeli willingness to negotiate security arrangements, which briefly lifted market sentiment.
Israeli PM Netanyahu says Syria deal possible, expects buffer zone
June 30, 2026 drops to 33%11%
Netanyahu expressed optimism about a possible deal with Syria contingent on establishing a demilitarized buffer zone, reinforcing market hopes for progress but highlighting key Israeli security demands.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%11%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks aiming to broker a security agreement focused on sovereignty, stability, and security. They agreed to establish a joint communication cell for coordination under U.S. supervision. This raised hopes for normalization but did not resolve core issues, leading to a moderate price decline for normalization by June 30, 2026.
Netanyahu signals possibility of deal with Syria but demands buffer zone
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%1%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that an agreement with Syria is achievable if Syria establishes a demilitarized buffer zone, reflecting ongoing negotiation complexities and Israeli security concerns.
Netanyahu says deal with Syria possible, expects demilitarised buffer zone
December 31, 2026 drops to 45%6%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly stated that a deal with Syria was possible, expecting Syrian authorities to establish a demilitarised buffer zone from Damascus to Mount Hermon. This statement raised market optimism about normalization prospects.
Trump administration highlights missed Middle East peace opportunities including Syria
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
A senior Israeli defense official noted that diplomatic opportunities in Syria and other regional fronts were being squandered due to mishandling and delays by the U.S., Israel, and Arab states. This underscored the stalled progress in Israel-Syria relations and contributed to market pessimism about normalization.
Reports indicate stalled progress due to Israeli demands for full diplomatic relations
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%4%
Negotiations faced setbacks as Israel reportedly shifted demands to require full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected, complicating the process and reducing market optimism.
Israel demands full diplomatic relations in Syria talks, complicating progress
December 31, 2026 plunges to 16%15%
Reports indicated Israel shifted its demands to require full diplomatic relations with Syria, which Syria rejected as not currently feasible, further complicating negotiations and reducing market confidence in a deal by mid-2026.
Reports indicate Israel hardens stance, demands full peace deal for troop withdrawal
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%4%
Israeli media reported that Israel would only withdraw troops from Syrian territory in exchange for a comprehensive peace agreement, not a mere security pact. This hardened stance complicated negotiations and dampened market expectations for near-term normalization.
Israeli army kills 13 in Syrian town of Beit Jinn amid rising tensions
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%14%
The killing of 13 individuals by the Israeli army in Beit Jinn escalated tensions and undermined trust, contributing to market declines in normalization prospects for both June and December 2026 outcomes.
Israeli military raid in southern Syria kills at least 10
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%11%
An Israeli operation in Beit Jin, southern Syria, resulted in at least 10 deaths and heightened tensions. This military action undermined trust and prospects for normalization, causing market prices for June 30, 2026, and December 31, 2026, outcomes to drop significantly.
Syrian source says signing of security annex with Israel could happen soon
December 31, 2026 jumps to 26%8%
A report in the Islam Times suggested a possible signing of a security annex within weeks, causing a small uptick to 26 % Yes on 2025‑12‑18 (the market’s peak before the subsequent decline).
Trump pushes Saudi crown prince to advance Israel‑Syria normalisation, prince resists
During a tense meeting, President Trump urged Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to move toward normalisation with Israel and Syria, but the prince reiterated that Palestinian statehood was a precondition, signalling no imminent progress.
Saudi Crown Prince reiterates Palestinian statehood as precondition for normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly and privately emphasized that normalization with Israel remains contingent on progress toward Palestinian statehood, with no concrete steps toward normalization expected soon. This stance reinforced regional skepticism and reduced market confidence in imminent Israel-Syria normalization.
Saudi Arabia signals normalization with Israel contingent on Palestinian statehood progress
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%8%
Saudi Arabia publicly stated normalization with Israel is a distant possibility contingent on Palestinian statehood progress, with no concrete steps toward normalization. This stance influenced regional dynamics and lowered market expectations for Israel-Syria normalization.
Israel and Syria agree to create joint mechanism for de-escalation and cooperation
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%7%
During the second day of talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint fusion mechanism to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities under US supervision, reflecting progress in negotiations.
Trump pushes Saudi crown prince to advance Israel‑Syria normalization, prince rebuffs
December 31, 2026 drops to 44%7%
Axios reported that President Trump urged Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to move toward normalizing relations with Israel and Syria, but the prince emphasized that Palestinian statehood remains a precondition, dampening market optimism and triggering a 13‑point drop.
Saudi Arabia signals no immediate normalization with Israel without Palestinian progress
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%8%
Saudi Arabia publicly stated that normalization with Israel is contingent on progress toward Palestinian statehood, a condition unlikely to be met soon, dampening regional prospects for Israel-Syria normalization and reducing market confidence.
Kazakhstan announces accession to Abraham Accords, Syria shows serious interest
Kazakhstan's accession to the Abraham Accords and Syria's expressed interest in joining increased regional momentum for normalization, briefly boosting market confidence.
Israel and Syria resume diplomatic dialogue under US mediation
June 30, 2026 plunges to 33%17%
Fox News reported the resumption of diplomatic dialogue under US mediation, temporarily lifting odds; the market rose to 33 % Yes for the June‑2026 outcome on that date.
Israel and Syria agree to create joint mechanism for de-escalation and economic ties
December 31, 2026 drops to 38%7%
During the second day of talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a mechanism facilitating de-escalation, diplomacy, and commercial opportunities, reflecting a commitment to turn a new page in relations.
Reports indicate Israel demands full diplomatic relations, complicating talks with Syria
June 30, 2026 plunges to 32%18%
Reports emerged that Israel shifted its demands to require full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected as not currently feasible, causing stalled progress and market price declines for normalization by both June and December 2026.
EU delegation visits Syria, signals openness to diplomatic engagement
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%11%
Senior EU officials met Syrian interim President Ahmad al‑Sharaa, offering substantial financial support and expressing willingness to improve relations, which briefly raised hopes of a Syrian‑Israeli rapprochement before the market corrected as no concrete steps with Israel followed.
Talks stall as Israel refuses withdrawal without comprehensive peace deal
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
Reports indicated that Israel hardened its stance, refusing to withdraw troops from Syrian territory without a full peace agreement, causing a breakdown in negotiations and dampening normalization prospects.
Israel hardens stance, refuses troop withdrawal without full peace deal
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%13%
Reports indicated Israel would not withdraw troops from Syrian territory seized after Assad's fall without a comprehensive peace agreement, complicating negotiations and dampening market optimism.
Reports claim Israel-Syria talks break down over Israeli troop withdrawal demands
June 30, 2026 dips to 31%1%
Israeli public broadcaster Kan reported that talks stalled after Israel refused to withdraw troops from Syrian territory without a comprehensive peace agreement, dampening market expectations for a near-term deal.
Israel and Syria hold first U.S.-mediated talks in Paris
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris for U.S.-brokered talks on a security arrangement, raising hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough but ending without a joint statement, which led to a modest price decline as traders saw no concrete progress.
Talks reportedly break down over Israeli withdrawal demands
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%13%
Reports emerged that talks broke down after Israel refused to withdraw troops from Syrian territory without a comprehensive peace agreement, which Syria did not agree to. This hardened Israeli stance and stalled progress, causing market prices to decline.
Netanyahu Visits Syrian Buffer Zone and Asserts Continued IDF Presence
June 30, 2026 dips to 32%4%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the IDF-held buffer zone in Syria, reinforcing that Israeli forces would remain on Mount Hermon and in the security zone, which drew strong condemnation from Damascus.
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa visits White House to discuss Israel-Syria security treaty
June 30, 2026 drops to 36%14%
Syrian President al-Sharaa met with U.S. officials to discuss a potential security treaty with Israel brokered by the Trump administration, marking a historic moment but also revealing stalled negotiations due to Israel's demands for a comprehensive peace deal before troop withdrawal. This raised doubts about near-term normalization.
Syrian President al-Sharaa visits White House to discuss Israel-Syria security treaty
June 30, 2026 dips to 33%3%
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa met with US President Donald Trump to discuss a potential security treaty with Israel brokered by the US. However, Israeli refusal to withdraw troops without a comprehensive peace agreement led to stalled negotiations, causing market prices to drop.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu tours IDF positions near Druze village amid tensions
June 30, 2026 drops to 24%9%
Netanyahu visited military positions near the Druze village of Hader in southern Syria, signaling Israel's focus on security and buffer zones rather than normalization, which negatively impacted market sentiment.
Saudi Crown Prince's US visit signals shift away from Israel normalization pressure
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Mohammed bin Salman's White House visit crystallized a shift in U.S.-Saudi relations, reducing U.S. leverage to demand Saudi normalization with Israel. This indicated broader regional resistance to normalization with Israel, negatively impacting prospects for Israel-Syria normalization.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris for security agreement
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focused on a security agreement to reduce tensions, agreeing to establish a joint communication cell for coordination. This was a positive diplomatic step but did not indicate imminent normalization, leading to moderate market optimism for the longer-term outcome.
Reports indicate Israel demands full diplomatic relations, complicating talks with Syria
June 30, 2026 dips to 33%3%
Reports emerged that Israel shifted its demands to require full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected as not currently feasible, causing a stall in negotiations and dampening market optimism for normalization by mid-2026.
Israel Rejects Syrian Withdrawal Request, Demanding Full Peace Deal
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%8%
Reports emerged that Israel rejected Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa's request to withdraw from positions occupied after the fall of Assad, stating it would only withdraw in exchange for a comprehensive peace agreement, which was not currently on the cards.
Israel-Syria Security Talks Reach Dead End Over Troop Withdrawal Disagreements
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%6%
Reports emerged that security negotiations between Israel and Syria had hit a dead end, with Israel refusing to withdraw from newly occupied buffer zones except as part of a comprehensive peace deal.
Israeli Prime Minister visits Syria buffer zone amid stalled talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the buffer zone in Syria, signaling Israel's intent to maintain military presence despite stalled negotiations. Syria condemned the visit, and reports indicated talks had reached a dead end, dampening prospects for normalization.
Syrian foreign minister says talks on normalising ties with Israel have stalled
Syrian FM Asaad al‑Shaibani publicly stated that the tentative opening toward Israel had stalled, dampening hopes for any diplomatic breakthrough and pushing market sentiment lower.
Israel says it will pull back from Syrian territory only for a full peace deal
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%10%
Israeli officials publicly announced that they would withdraw from Syrian‑occupied positions only in exchange for a comprehensive peace treaty, not a security pact. The hardening of Israel’s stance was reported by Israel’s public broadcaster Kan and caused the market’s “Yes” probability to slide from 51 % to 41 % over the next few days.
Syrian President al-Sharaa emphasizes Israeli withdrawal precondition for agreement
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
During a Washington visit, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that Israel must withdraw to pre-December 8 borders before a final agreement, signaling a major sticking point and dampening market expectations.
Warming US-Syria ties put pressure on Israel over Syria security deal
June 30, 2026 dips to 33%3%
Improved relations between US President Trump and Syrian President al-Sharaa increased US leverage in talks, pressuring Israel to advance security arrangements with Syria, though full normalization remained uncertain.
Syria insists no full diplomatic relations without Israeli withdrawal
December 31, 2026 plunges to 30%16%
Syria stated it would not agree to full diplomatic relations without Israel withdrawing to pre-December 8 borders, complicating negotiations and causing market confidence to drop sharply.
Reports indicate Israel demands full diplomatic relations, Syria resists
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
Reports emerged that Israel's terms had shifted to demanding full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected as not currently feasible, complicating negotiations and dampening market optimism.
Clashes erupt between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters in Aleppo
June 30, 2026 plunges to 33%19%
Violent clashes between Syrian government forces and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in Aleppo undermined the stability needed for normalization talks, causing market prices for June 30, 2026 to drop sharply.
Reports emerge of close agreement between Israel and Syria based on 1974 disengagement accord
June 30, 2026 rises to 36%3%
Israeli sources indicated that an agreement was close, involving a trilateral committee and guarantees for minority protection, raising market optimism for normalization by June 30, 2026.
Israel and Syria agree to establish joint communication mechanism in Paris talks
June 30, 2026 drops to 44%6%
During talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to create a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement under US supervision, signaling a positive step toward reducing tensions.
Israel and Syria agree to create joint communication mechanism in Paris talks
December 31, 2026 surges to 77%26%
During U.S.-brokered talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement, signaling progress toward reducing tensions but falling short of full normalization.
U.S. confirms daily Israel‑Syria contacts
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
A brief U.S. comment that direct daily contacts were ongoing produced a minor dip; market “Yes” fell from 51 % on 2025‑11‑11 to 46 % on 2025‑11‑21.
U.S.-mediated Israel-Syria talks resume in Paris to defuse tensions
June 30, 2026 rises to 52%2%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris under U.S. mediation to discuss a security agreement focused on sovereignty, stability, and security, raising hopes for normalization. This event initially boosted market optimism for normalization by June 30, 2026.
Trump declares Israel‑Syria talks a turning point for regional stability
December 31, 2026 surges to 77%26%
Trump publicly praised the renewed talks, saying a “new page” was being turned. The optimistic statement temporarily boosted the market, raising the December‑2026 probability to 77 % before the subsequent reversal.
U.S.-mediated Israeli-Syrian talks resume in Paris aiming for security agreement
June 30, 2026 drops to 36%14%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under U.S. mediation to discuss a security agreement focused on sovereignty, stability, and security, signaling a tentative diplomatic opening. This raised market optimism temporarily for normalization by June 30, 2026, and December 31, 2026.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 drops to 36%14%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focusing on security, sovereignty, and cooperation, signaling a potential thaw but without concrete normalization agreements. This initially supported market optimism for normalization by June 30, 2026.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-mediated talks in Paris to defuse tensions
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
On November 12, 2025, Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris under U.S. mediation to discuss a security agreement focusing on sovereignty, security, and prosperity. The talks aimed to reactivate a 1974 disengagement agreement and establish a joint communication cell for coordination, but no breakthrough on normalization was announced, leading to a moderate price drop.
U.S.-mediated talks between Israel and Syria resume in Paris
Officials from Israel and Syria met in Paris to discuss a security agreement aimed at defusing tensions, including reactivating a 1974 disengagement agreement and Israeli withdrawal from a buffer zone. This raised hopes for normalization, causing initial market optimism.
Renewed Israel-Syria talks in Paris focus on security and economic cooperation
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under US auspices to discuss reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement and establishing mechanisms for de-escalation and commercial ties, signaling a diplomatic push under President Trump's vision for Middle East peace.
US-backed talks between Israel and Syria begin in Paris
Under US auspices, Israeli and Syrian officials started direct talks in Paris aiming to reduce hostilities and explore normalization possibilities, initially raising market optimism about normalization by 2026.
U.S.-mediated talks between Israel and Syria resume in Paris to seek security agreement
December 31, 2026 drops to 45%6%
Syrian and Israeli officials, led by Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani, resumed U.S.-brokered talks in Paris aiming to reactivate the 1974 disengagement agreement and reduce tensions. This raised hopes for normalization, causing initial market optimism.
U.S.-mediated Syria-Israel talks resume in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%12%
Syrian and Israeli officials began U.S.-mediated talks in Paris aimed at reaching a security agreement, with Syria seeking withdrawal of Israeli forces from a buffer zone and Israel seeking protection of its border.
Israel and Syria agree to create joint mechanism for de-escalation and economic ties
During talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint mechanism to facilitate intelligence sharing, de-escalation, and commercial cooperation, signaling a potential thaw in relations under US mediation. This raised market optimism for normalization by both June and December 2026.
Israel, Syria, and US agree to establish joint fusion mechanism for intelligence and diplomatic coordination
June 30, 2026 drops to 36%14%
Following meetings in Paris, Israel, Syria, and the US announced a joint fusion mechanism to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial cooperation under US supervision. This marked a significant step toward reducing tensions but fell short of full diplomatic normalization.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%8%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks to broker a security agreement, signaling renewed diplomatic engagement but no immediate path to normalization.
Israel and Syria agree to create joint communication mechanism in US-mediated talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 45%6%
During US-mediated talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint fusion mechanism to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities under US supervision. This was seen as a positive step toward de-escalation and potential future agreements, initially supporting market optimism.
Reports emerge of close agreement between Israel and Syria on normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%9%
Israeli sources indicated a near agreement based on the 1974 disengagement accord, including minority protections and territorial commitments, sparking initial market optimism for normalization by end of 2026.
Israel and Syria resume diplomatic talks under US mediation in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under US auspices to restart diplomatic dialogue focusing on border security and regional stability, signaling a renewed diplomatic push.
Israeli sources report close agreement with Syria on normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%9%
In late October 2025, Israeli sources indicated a near agreement with Syria based on the 1974 disengagement agreement, including minority protections and territorial commitments, sparking initial market optimism.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa rules out direct negotiations with Israel for now
June 30, 2026 dips to 33%3%
In an interview, Syria's President al-Sharaa stated Syria would not enter direct negotiations with Israel immediately, dampening hopes for rapid normalization and causing market prices to fall.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes