US-Israeli airstrikes continue against Iranian military targets in the ongoing 2026 Iran war, which began February 28 following failed nuclear negotiations, but no other countries have launched qualifying aerial bombs, drones, or missiles impacting Iranian territory, per market criteria. Gulf states including UAE and Saudi Arabia, targeted by Iranian retaliatory strikes, have provided logistical support and conducted defensive interceptions without offensive actions against Iran. Stalled ceasefire talks mediated via Pakistan, a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and diplomatic opposition from EU nations, China, and Russia have deterred escalation by allies as of April 30. Traders price Yes outcomes below 1¢ across UAE (leading at 0.7¢), Saudi Arabia, and EU countries, reflecting consensus on de-escalation pressures amid $25 billion US costs and no late-breaking developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué países llevarán a cabo una acción militar contra Irán antes del 30 de abril?
¿Qué países llevarán a cabo una acción militar contra Irán antes del 30 de abril?
$3,652,734 Vol.
30 abr 2026
EAU
1%
Francia
1%
Kuwait
<1%
Arabia Saudita
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Bahréin
<1%
Cualquier país de la U.E.
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Turquía
<1%
Reino Unido
<1%
Canadá
<1%
Alemania
<1%
Omán
<1%
$3,652,734 Vol.
EAU
$1,841,083 Vol.
1%
Francia
$210,423 Vol.
1%
Kuwait
$169,050 Vol.
<1%
Arabia Saudita
$608,486 Vol.
<1%
Qatar
$57,914 Vol.
<1%
Bahréin
$57,288 Vol.
<1%
Cualquier país de la U.E.
$88,938 Vol.
<1%
Jordania
$34,599 Vol.
<1%
Turquía
$88,975 Vol.
<1%
Reino Unido
$287,621 Vol.
<1%
Canadá
$47,553 Vol.
<1%
Alemania
$128,274 Vol.
<1%
Omán
$33,303 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes continue against Iranian military targets in the ongoing 2026 Iran war, which began February 28 following failed nuclear negotiations, but no other countries have launched qualifying aerial bombs, drones, or missiles impacting Iranian territory, per market criteria. Gulf states including UAE and Saudi Arabia, targeted by Iranian retaliatory strikes, have provided logistical support and conducted defensive interceptions without offensive actions against Iran. Stalled ceasefire talks mediated via Pakistan, a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and diplomatic opposition from EU nations, China, and Russia have deterred escalation by allies as of April 30. Traders price Yes outcomes below 1¢ across UAE (leading at 0.7¢), Saudi Arabia, and EU countries, reflecting consensus on de-escalation pressures amid $25 billion US costs and no late-breaking developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Volumen
$3,652,734Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes continue against Iranian military targets in the ongoing 2026 Iran war, which began February 28 following failed nuclear negotiations, but no other countries have launched qualifying aerial bombs, drones, or missiles impacting Iranian territory, per market criteria. Gulf states including UAE and Saudi Arabia, targeted by Iranian retaliatory strikes, have provided logistical support and conducted defensive interceptions without offensive actions against Iran. Stalled ceasefire talks mediated via Pakistan, a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and diplomatic opposition from EU nations, China, and Russia have deterred escalation by allies as of April 30. Traders price Yes outcomes below 1¢ across UAE (leading at 0.7¢), Saudi Arabia, and EU countries, reflecting consensus on de-escalation pressures amid $25 billion US costs and no late-breaking developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,652,734Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israeli airstrikes continue against Iranian military targets in the ongoing 2026 Iran war, which began February 28 following failed nuclear negotiations, but no other countries have launched qualifying aerial bombs, drones, or missiles impacting Iranian territory, per market criteria. Gulf states including UAE and Saudi Arabia, targeted by Iranian retaliatory strikes, have provided logistical support and conducted defensive interceptions without offensive actions against Iran. Stalled ceasefire talks mediated via Pakistan, a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and diplomatic opposition from EU nations, China, and Russia have deterred escalation by allies as of April 30. Traders price Yes outcomes below 1¢ across UAE (leading at 0.7¢), Saudi Arabia, and EU countries, reflecting consensus on de-escalation pressures amid $25 billion US costs and no late-breaking developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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