Latest Japan Meteorological Agency and international forecast models, including ECMWF and GFS, project Tokyo's highest temperature on May 2 at 26–28°C under a high-pressure ridge bringing partly cloudy skies and lighter winds, following today's rainy, breezy conditions capping highs near 21°C. This shift explains the market-implied 71% probability for 25°C or higher, reflecting trader consensus on above-normal early May warmth—climatological averages hover around 22–23°C—supported by sunny intervals and urban heat effects. The 26.5% odds on exactly 24°C account for potential lingering clouds or gusts tempering peaks, with final JMA updates expected early May 2 to refine guidance ahead of resolution based on official observations at Tokyo stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 2?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 2?
25°C or higher 71%
24°C 28%
23°C 6%
22°C <1%
NUEVO
$16,388 Vol.
NUEVO
$16,388 Vol.
2 may 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
6%
24°C
28%
25°C or higher
71%
25°C or higher 71%
24°C 28%
23°C 6%
22°C <1%
NUEVO
$16,388 Vol.
NUEVO
$16,388 Vol.
2 may 2026
15°C or below
$1,950 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,593 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,179 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,699 Vol.
1%
19°C
$789 Vol.
1%
20°C
$1,501 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,046 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,727 Vol.
1%
23°C
$879 Vol.
6%
24°C
$1,427 Vol.
28%
25°C or higher
$1,664 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Japan Meteorological Agency and international forecast models, including ECMWF and GFS, project Tokyo's highest temperature on May 2 at 26–28°C under a high-pressure ridge bringing partly cloudy skies and lighter winds, following today's rainy, breezy conditions capping highs near 21°C. This shift explains the market-implied 71% probability for 25°C or higher, reflecting trader consensus on above-normal early May warmth—climatological averages hover around 22–23°C—supported by sunny intervals and urban heat effects. The 26.5% odds on exactly 24°C account for potential lingering clouds or gusts tempering peaks, with final JMA updates expected early May 2 to refine guidance ahead of resolution based on official observations at Tokyo stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$16,388Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Japan Meteorological Agency and international forecast models, including ECMWF and GFS, project Tokyo's highest temperature on May 2 at 26–28°C under a high-pressure ridge bringing partly cloudy skies and lighter winds, following today's rainy, breezy conditions capping highs near 21°C. This shift explains the market-implied 71% probability for 25°C or higher, reflecting trader consensus on above-normal early May warmth—climatological averages hover around 22–23°C—supported by sunny intervals and urban heat effects. The 26.5% odds on exactly 24°C account for potential lingering clouds or gusts tempering peaks, with final JMA updates expected early May 2 to refine guidance ahead of resolution based on official observations at Tokyo stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$16,388Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Japan Meteorological Agency and international forecast models, including ECMWF and GFS, project Tokyo's highest temperature on May 2 at 26–28°C under a high-pressure ridge bringing partly cloudy skies and lighter winds, following today's rainy, breezy conditions capping highs near 21°C. This shift explains the market-implied 71% probability for 25°C or higher, reflecting trader consensus on above-normal early May warmth—climatological averages hover around 22–23°C—supported by sunny intervals and urban heat effects. The 26.5% odds on exactly 24°C account for potential lingering clouds or gusts tempering peaks, with final JMA updates expected early May 2 to refine guidance ahead of resolution based on official observations at Tokyo stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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