Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 8°C (37.5% implied probability) and 9°C (27.5%) as Moscow's highest temperature on May 1, reflecting the latest forecasts from Russia's Hydrometcenter (Roshydromet), which project daytime highs of 8–10°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light rain from a northerly airflow. This cool spell, ongoing since late April, has kept temperatures 5–7°C below the early May climatological average of 12–13°C, with overcast skies limiting solar heating and northwest winds at 2–3 m/s reinforcing the chill. Differentiating factors include potential brief cloud breaks pushing toward 10°C (15.5%) versus sustained overcast holding at 7–8°C (16.5%); hourly observations from central stations will clarify as the day progresses, with model consensus showing low confidence in exceeding 10°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Moscow on May 1?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 1?
8°C 38%
9°C 29%
7°C 18%
10°C 13%
NUEVO
$21,153 Vol.
NUEVO
$21,153 Vol.
1 may 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
18%
8°C
38%
9°C
29%
10°C
13%
11°C
1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C or higher
<1%
8°C 38%
9°C 29%
7°C 18%
10°C 13%
NUEVO
$21,153 Vol.
NUEVO
$21,153 Vol.
1 may 2026
4°C or below
$1,710 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$1,655 Vol.
1%
6°C
$2,045 Vol.
1%
7°C
$1,717 Vol.
18%
8°C
$1,130 Vol.
38%
9°C
$1,346 Vol.
29%
10°C
$565 Vol.
13%
11°C
$2,602 Vol.
1%
12°C
$2,310 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$2,507 Vol.
1%
14°C or higher
$3,643 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 8°C (37.5% implied probability) and 9°C (27.5%) as Moscow's highest temperature on May 1, reflecting the latest forecasts from Russia's Hydrometcenter (Roshydromet), which project daytime highs of 8–10°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light rain from a northerly airflow. This cool spell, ongoing since late April, has kept temperatures 5–7°C below the early May climatological average of 12–13°C, with overcast skies limiting solar heating and northwest winds at 2–3 m/s reinforcing the chill. Differentiating factors include potential brief cloud breaks pushing toward 10°C (15.5%) versus sustained overcast holding at 7–8°C (16.5%); hourly observations from central stations will clarify as the day progresses, with model consensus showing low confidence in exceeding 10°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volumen
$21,153Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 8°C (37.5% implied probability) and 9°C (27.5%) as Moscow's highest temperature on May 1, reflecting the latest forecasts from Russia's Hydrometcenter (Roshydromet), which project daytime highs of 8–10°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light rain from a northerly airflow. This cool spell, ongoing since late April, has kept temperatures 5–7°C below the early May climatological average of 12–13°C, with overcast skies limiting solar heating and northwest winds at 2–3 m/s reinforcing the chill. Differentiating factors include potential brief cloud breaks pushing toward 10°C (15.5%) versus sustained overcast holding at 7–8°C (16.5%); hourly observations from central stations will clarify as the day progresses, with model consensus showing low confidence in exceeding 10°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$21,153Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 8°C (37.5% implied probability) and 9°C (27.5%) as Moscow's highest temperature on May 1, reflecting the latest forecasts from Russia's Hydrometcenter (Roshydromet), which project daytime highs of 8–10°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light rain from a northerly airflow. This cool spell, ongoing since late April, has kept temperatures 5–7°C below the early May climatological average of 12–13°C, with overcast skies limiting solar heating and northwest winds at 2–3 m/s reinforcing the chill. Differentiating factors include potential brief cloud breaks pushing toward 10°C (15.5%) versus sustained overcast holding at 7–8°C (16.5%); hourly observations from central stations will clarify as the day progresses, with model consensus showing low confidence in exceeding 10°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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