Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a maximum temperature of 21°C (48.5% implied probability) for Milan on May 1, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 20-22°C peaks under a stable high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. Clear skies this morning—starting at around 12°C with light ESE winds—support standard diurnal heating in the urban Po Valley environment, consistent with early May climatology where highs average 20°C. April's +4.3°C warmth anomaly has smoothly transitioned into this mild pattern, with no major model shifts in the past 48 hours per IlMeteo.it updates showing a 21°C top at 5 PM. Afternoon cloud development remains a key uncertainty; monitor Milan Linate station observations for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Milan on May 1?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 1?
21°C 49%
20°C 21%
22°C 21%
19°C 3.0%
$23,323 Vol.
$23,323 Vol.
1 may 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
3%
20°C
21%
21°C
49%
22°C
21%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
1%
21°C 49%
20°C 21%
22°C 21%
19°C 3.0%
$23,323 Vol.
$23,323 Vol.
1 may 2026
14°C or below
$533 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$260 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$370 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,104 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$3,062 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$5,013 Vol.
3%
20°C
$3,243 Vol.
21%
21°C
$2,813 Vol.
49%
22°C
$2,702 Vol.
21%
23°C
$2,307 Vol.
2%
24°C or higher
$1,936 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a maximum temperature of 21°C (48.5% implied probability) for Milan on May 1, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 20-22°C peaks under a stable high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. Clear skies this morning—starting at around 12°C with light ESE winds—support standard diurnal heating in the urban Po Valley environment, consistent with early May climatology where highs average 20°C. April's +4.3°C warmth anomaly has smoothly transitioned into this mild pattern, with no major model shifts in the past 48 hours per IlMeteo.it updates showing a 21°C top at 5 PM. Afternoon cloud development remains a key uncertainty; monitor Milan Linate station observations for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:39 AM ET
Volumen
$23,323Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:39 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a maximum temperature of 21°C (48.5% implied probability) for Milan on May 1, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 20-22°C peaks under a stable high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. Clear skies this morning—starting at around 12°C with light ESE winds—support standard diurnal heating in the urban Po Valley environment, consistent with early May climatology where highs average 20°C. April's +4.3°C warmth anomaly has smoothly transitioned into this mild pattern, with no major model shifts in the past 48 hours per IlMeteo.it updates showing a 21°C top at 5 PM. Afternoon cloud development remains a key uncertainty; monitor Milan Linate station observations for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$23,323Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:39 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a maximum temperature of 21°C (48.5% implied probability) for Milan on May 1, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 20-22°C peaks under a stable high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. Clear skies this morning—starting at around 12°C with light ESE winds—support standard diurnal heating in the urban Po Valley environment, consistent with early May climatology where highs average 20°C. April's +4.3°C warmth anomaly has smoothly transitioned into this mild pattern, with no major model shifts in the past 48 hours per IlMeteo.it updates showing a 21°C top at 5 PM. Afternoon cloud development remains a key uncertainty; monitor Milan Linate station observations for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes