The latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) regional forecast for the Valle de México, issued April 30, projects a high of 28–30°C in Mexico City on May 2, sustaining a heat wave driven by persistent anticyclonic circulation in mid-levels of the atmosphere despite incoming instability. This aligns with trader sentiment pricing a 71% implied probability for 29°C or higher, reflecting consensus from recent model runs and observed late-April highs exceeding 31°C amid above-normal temperatures linked to broader central Mexico warmth. A 23.5% chance on exactly 28°C accounts for potential cloud cover and showers (5–25 mm possible) from an approaching cold front system, which could temper peak heating; new SMN updates and GFS/ECMWF ensembles expected today may refine this outlook ahead of resolution based on official Benito Juárez International Airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Mexico City on May 2?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 2?
29°C or higher 74%
28°C 24%
27°C 4.0%
26°C 1.4%
NUEVO
$13,812 Vol.
NUEVO
$13,812 Vol.
2 may 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
24%
29°C or higher
74%
29°C or higher 74%
28°C 24%
27°C 4.0%
26°C 1.4%
NUEVO
$13,812 Vol.
NUEVO
$13,812 Vol.
2 may 2026
19°C or below
$1,078 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,170 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$817 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,243 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,169 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$4,241 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$459 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$608 Vol.
1%
27°C
$478 Vol.
4%
28°C
$802 Vol.
24%
29°C or higher
$778 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) regional forecast for the Valle de México, issued April 30, projects a high of 28–30°C in Mexico City on May 2, sustaining a heat wave driven by persistent anticyclonic circulation in mid-levels of the atmosphere despite incoming instability. This aligns with trader sentiment pricing a 71% implied probability for 29°C or higher, reflecting consensus from recent model runs and observed late-April highs exceeding 31°C amid above-normal temperatures linked to broader central Mexico warmth. A 23.5% chance on exactly 28°C accounts for potential cloud cover and showers (5–25 mm possible) from an approaching cold front system, which could temper peak heating; new SMN updates and GFS/ECMWF ensembles expected today may refine this outlook ahead of resolution based on official Benito Juárez International Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volumen
$13,812Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:13 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) regional forecast for the Valle de México, issued April 30, projects a high of 28–30°C in Mexico City on May 2, sustaining a heat wave driven by persistent anticyclonic circulation in mid-levels of the atmosphere despite incoming instability. This aligns with trader sentiment pricing a 71% implied probability for 29°C or higher, reflecting consensus from recent model runs and observed late-April highs exceeding 31°C amid above-normal temperatures linked to broader central Mexico warmth. A 23.5% chance on exactly 28°C accounts for potential cloud cover and showers (5–25 mm possible) from an approaching cold front system, which could temper peak heating; new SMN updates and GFS/ECMWF ensembles expected today may refine this outlook ahead of resolution based on official Benito Juárez International Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$13,812Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:13 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...The latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) regional forecast for the Valle de México, issued April 30, projects a high of 28–30°C in Mexico City on May 2, sustaining a heat wave driven by persistent anticyclonic circulation in mid-levels of the atmosphere despite incoming instability. This aligns with trader sentiment pricing a 71% implied probability for 29°C or higher, reflecting consensus from recent model runs and observed late-April highs exceeding 31°C amid above-normal temperatures linked to broader central Mexico warmth. A 23.5% chance on exactly 28°C accounts for potential cloud cover and showers (5–25 mm possible) from an approaching cold front system, which could temper peak heating; new SMN updates and GFS/ECMWF ensembles expected today may refine this outlook ahead of resolution based on official Benito Juárez International Airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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