The latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecasts, issued May 13 for the Valle de México, project a high temperature of 26–28°C on May 15 in Mexico City, aligning with trader consensus at 99.6% implied probability for 19°C or higher at Benito Juárez International Airport, the market's official measurement site. This positioning reflects consistent model runs showing a stable upper-level ridge fostering warm, partly cloudy conditions amid May's climatological average highs near 26°C at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Recent observations confirm similar peaks on May 13–14 despite isolated showers nearby, with no cold fronts indicated. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen trough deepening overnight, though divergent ensemble models deem this under 1% likely; monitor SMN's May 14 update for refinements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Mexico City on May 15?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 15?
19°C or higher 99.6%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
13°C <1%
NUEVO
$15,715 Vol.
NUEVO
$15,715 Vol.
15 may 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
100%
19°C or higher 99.6%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
13°C <1%
NUEVO
$15,715 Vol.
NUEVO
$15,715 Vol.
15 may 2026
9°C or below
$1,664 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,001 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,154 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,434 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,325 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,215 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$874 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$864 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,642 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$2,434 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$2,107 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecasts, issued May 13 for the Valle de México, project a high temperature of 26–28°C on May 15 in Mexico City, aligning with trader consensus at 99.6% implied probability for 19°C or higher at Benito Juárez International Airport, the market's official measurement site. This positioning reflects consistent model runs showing a stable upper-level ridge fostering warm, partly cloudy conditions amid May's climatological average highs near 26°C at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Recent observations confirm similar peaks on May 13–14 despite isolated showers nearby, with no cold fronts indicated. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen trough deepening overnight, though divergent ensemble models deem this under 1% likely; monitor SMN's May 14 update for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volumen
$15,715Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecasts, issued May 13 for the Valle de México, project a high temperature of 26–28°C on May 15 in Mexico City, aligning with trader consensus at 99.6% implied probability for 19°C or higher at Benito Juárez International Airport, the market's official measurement site. This positioning reflects consistent model runs showing a stable upper-level ridge fostering warm, partly cloudy conditions amid May's climatological average highs near 26°C at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Recent observations confirm similar peaks on May 13–14 despite isolated showers nearby, with no cold fronts indicated. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen trough deepening overnight, though divergent ensemble models deem this under 1% likely; monitor SMN's May 14 update for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$15,715Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...The latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecasts, issued May 13 for the Valle de México, project a high temperature of 26–28°C on May 15 in Mexico City, aligning with trader consensus at 99.6% implied probability for 19°C or higher at Benito Juárez International Airport, the market's official measurement site. This positioning reflects consistent model runs showing a stable upper-level ridge fostering warm, partly cloudy conditions amid May's climatological average highs near 26°C at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Recent observations confirm similar peaks on May 13–14 despite isolated showers nearby, with no cold fronts indicated. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen trough deepening overnight, though divergent ensemble models deem this under 1% likely; monitor SMN's May 14 update for refinements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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